The Weather for this week, the Weekend and 60hrs from 00z Monday: UKMO agrees with GFS, We will see regular Cooling Anticyclone Meridional High Azores to N Europe Toward NE, Linked areas Ridges and Low Pressure away from UK but some days a few of them will give SE parts some blustery cool showers, and later more Continued ongoing relentless from now to then Azores High build Ridges and Spread to N mid Central N Europe with cool airmass affecting them and the UK.

 there will be some cloudy and breezy conditions and also some slghtly above seasonal average day to night temperatures but some slightly below average day and night temperatures are also expected, with chances of dry and sunny spells/ periods of sunshine too.

By about 26/27 March some wet and breezy windy weather 10 to 30 mph winds with mild sectors and rain outbreaks are being shown crossing UK with high ridges as well in between for the UK North and NW Europe, some Westerly SW and brief short NW airflow with some normal temperatures also predicted, as well as I repeat some mild SW flows.

GFS and ECM 12z are looking chilly with some wintry showers in the east quite possible for a time.

A changeable fi to.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MARCH 17TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Winds will be very slack across the UK as an anticyclone forms over Northern Britain tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain mostly in the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below especially at first.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow blocked to the West of the UK with the thrust pushed north and South to our West. The flow spills further east later returning South across the UK while a stronger flow remains over the Atlantic. With little direct indication to the flow guaranteed later it is currently shown that an undulating pattern is most likely during week 2.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run shows High pressure mostly in control down to the SW through this morning's run. It will be most influential to the UK at the start of the period when a lot of dry weather is likely but with just a little rain here and there as a trough slips South late this week. Then after a chilly NE flow at the weekend next week looks more generally changeable and sometimes cold with winds predominating from a NW quadrant and rain or showers a frequent commodity by then wintry on hills. The SW maintains the best chance of seeing the least rain as High pressure edges closer in from the Azores at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows a very similar scenario through the period with the same drift towards more unsettled and windy weather after this week in Westerly winds and rain at times next week following a brief and cold northerly for a time early in the week.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS The clusters have switched somewhat again this morning in that there is a better agreement on the positioning of High pressure to the SW in two weeks time. The majority of members support High pressure close enough to the South and SW to at least hold off the worst effects of Atlantic winds and rain to more Northern areas than was shown at this time yesterday.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure across the North at the weekend with a cold NE flow over the South for a time following a band of cloud and patchy rain South on Friday. The High pressure slips away South by the start of next week with winds switching Westerly with some rain bearing fronts approaching and moving over northern areas at least at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data rather well this morning with the High over the UK at the weekend following a chilly NE flow over the South for a time at the start of the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure migrating further towards the South and SW after being across the UK at the start of the weekend. Being on the periphery of it and with troughs moving SE over Europe periodically the weather could stay cool with a little rain over the North and East at times before winds back West at the end of the run with less cold air filtering East across the UK with some rain for the North. High pressure is shown to hold close to the South though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds High pressure in control as it shifts further towards the SW by next week maintaining a ridge over or at least close to the South later in the period. Any rainfall is restricted to the far North and East as weak troughs cross SE late this week and drift East over Northern Britain to start next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the positioning of High pressure in relation to the UK dominant in determining the weather type we all see over the next 10 days. With a centre building over the North late this week and start to the weekend a cold NE flow will be re-introduced to the South for a day or two before a trend towards less cold air coming across the UK on Westerly winds from off the Atlantic is shown as High pressure drifts SW to lie close to Southern Britain in 10 days time with any rain mostly restricted to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN There is strong support now from the ECM model members that in 10 days times we will lie under a westerly feed of air between Low pressure South of Iceland and High pressure near the Azores with a typical early Spring changeable weather pattern for all. There is a shift towards High pressure being held closer to the South though by 10 days with most of the unsettled weather held over the North of Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has firmed up further on High pressure migrating to the SW in 10-14 days with a Westerly flow of some sort across the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.1 pts over GFS's 60.4 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.6 pts over GFS at 44.7.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The weather pattern across the UK over the next 10-14 days across the UK looks like being largely benign and controlled by the positioning and proximity to the UK of High pressure centred across the North of Britain at the weekend and then drifting down to the SW and South of the UK with a Westerly flow developing for all. While this will inevitably bring some frontal activity across the North at times with occasional rain and showers it looks increasingly likely that there won't be too much ingress over Southernmost areas with High pressure never looking far away and no more than the odd burst of patchy rain or drizzle in among a lot of periods of dry if rather cloudy weather. On the subject of temperatures the current warming theme looks to be interrupted again by the weekend especially in the South as a day or two of cold NE winds look likely for a time. Next week though shows the greater hint that temperatures might recover nearer to normal as winds take on a more Atlantic based source. Sunshine amounts could be rather suppressed for many throughout the period though as weak troughs and naturally moist laden maritime crosses the UK from the West next week and because of this it is unlikely that any particularly warm and springlike sunny days occur. Nevertheless, given that March is quite capable of bringing  some very inclement weather across the UK the current synoptics indicate that nothing severe or particularly unpleasant is likely across the UK over the next few weeks with some very useable weather for those conducting out of door activities through the period.

Issued at 08:00 Tuesday March 17th 2015

Well, today the UKMO and GFS have a set of thoughts and they agree with this and it looks like:

Northerly then ENE winds Going around the NW to N Europe Two Cells of High Pressure, Azores High as well affect UK, but the Low Pressure Friday and Saturday looks like affecting Eastern and SE Britain Side, with Cool to Chilly conditions.

Then quiet with all parts Fine and becoming Spring Season Sunshine light variable winds Sunday Azores and N Europe High still there, but with the NW UK later see enter Cool West NW winds later Sunday with Windy Spell of rain and briefly WSW mild, then Cool to Colder Monday W then NW winds blustery and heavy hail hill snow sleet Monday and all areas turning colder with Monday Night Tuesday Night risk of Air Frost widespread across the British Isles.

High Pressure on Tuesday ridges across from the West so it the Departing Low moves across to N Europe North Sea Norway with the Eastern and NNE UK in particular seeing cold North to NW winds with low level rain showers and mid to upper level snow showers a possibility.

😅😄😇

Finally a warm up on the cards from the Ecm. Hints also on the GFS ensembles that proper spring might be just round the corner.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Hardly!

Temps close to average.

Not cold or wintry either Duane. That ship has sailed for another year 

Still look good for Friday Eclipse here with a decent weekend ahead too for the first opening of car boot sales.  Really glad winter is over now with lengthen daylight hours rapidly increasing.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MARCH 17TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure across the UK will recede South-west somewhat tomorrow as a cold front moves South towards Scotland tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather with some sunshine and just occasional rain mostly in the North later. Temperatures will be close to average or a little below.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow blocked and as a result flowing North and South to the West of the UK currently. This blocking slowly collapses with the flow moving South over the UK by the wekend and later rather stronger over the Atlantic and steered more west to east across the UK later in the period.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational run shows a very mixed and changeable sequence of events ths morning. The current fine weather looks like being interrupted by weakening cold fronts across the UK with a little rain and a resurgence of cold NE winds following them over the South between tomorrow and the start to next week. Then a more definitive surge of cold air behind a more active front sets up a Scandinavian High and a cold and unsettled phase across the UK when there could well be some wintry weather around as Low pressure to the SE is joined by Atlantic disturbances bumping into the cold air over the UK at that time. Later still sees the Scandinavian High collapse away East and the Atlantic take control with milder at times Westerly winds with rain at times to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows less influence from the formed Scandinavian High next week as the Atlantic steadily overpowers any influence this has in preference to a strong Westerly flow later with milder temperatures and rain at times especially in the North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The clusters this morning show universal support at the end of the period for the UK to lie in a West or NW flow with High pressure anchored to the South, SW or West of the UK with the most changeable conditions within this flow felt more in the North where rain at times will be more common.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure slipping away SW out into the Atlantic early next week as a deep Low over Scandinavia drives a cold front SE with some rain followed by a chilly NW flow with some showers, wintry over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data rather well this morning with the High over the UK at the weekend following a chilly NE flow over the South for a time at the start of the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today follows the UKMO model with the cold air behind the cold front next week with a High pressure ridge following SE with fine and chilly conditions for a time before Westerly winds develop as the ridge clears South with occasional rain over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows things becoming much more unsettled as that cold front moves South early next week and with cold air in place at that time there will be rain and showers with snow on hills complicated still further by Low pressure taking more influence across the UK from the Atlantic by the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same cold front early next week clearing South leaving a chilly flow of air over the UK in rising pressure as a ridge moves SE. then following this ridge the weather is shown to turn more unsettled from the NW as westerly winds and rain at times in falling pressure arrives later next week with more average temperatures and rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean positions Low pressure well to the NW of the UK with a Westerly flow across the UK with High pressure near the Azores. The most likely weather across the UK at the 10 Day mark will be one of changeable conditions with some rain at times especially in the North and West with temperatures fairly close to average for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has firmed up further on High pressure migrating to the SW in 10-14 days with more changeable conditions looking likely especially for the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.2 pts over GFS's 60.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.5 pts over GFS at 44.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The most striking thing about this morning's output is the trough of Low pressure which is expected to move SE across the UK in the early days of next week. Up to that point the weather remains fairly benign with a weaker front bringing a little rain SE late Thursday and Friday spoiling the partial solar eclipse for some before setting up a chilly and rather cloudy weekend with a return of a chill NE wind over the South for a time. As this ridge then moves away South a more active front in association with a deep Scandinavian Low crosses SE down over the UK with some rain for all. It's from that point that models diverge on conditions thereafter with many suggesting a short cold interlude with wintry showers steadily replaced by a more Westerly airstream across the UK and more changeable conditions in average temperatures later in the period. However, some also show a more wintry scenario as the exiting depression over Scandinavia early next week is replaced by a Scandinavian High pressure dragging cold air across the UK on a flow across the UK powered by falling pressure to the West of the UK linking to lower pressure to the SE. The GFS operational shows this scenario best while others also hint at it to a lesser degree and for a shorter time. That aside all output seems to suggest that High pressure could well become much less influential across Britain by the end of next week with rain at times and average temperatures as the High pressure of late recedes to it's traditional ground to the SW, near the Azores. So providing the minority of model output showing the colder scenario is misplaced then the main message is for more unsettled March conditions being possible but not before early next week with the usual story in Westerly winds of the main focus of the wettest conditions likely across the North and West and temperatures close to average.

Issued at 08:00 Wednesday March 18th 2015

Thanks, Martin - and to re-assure you that it's not only you interested in this thread!

Ditto, all the serious model analysis is very much appreciated over the whole year, as a farmer (bee) I check this thread daily :-)

Thanks all (not a fan of the silly winter huggers mind)

Cheers

Jez

Most of us might just escape with just the one chilly day this coming weekend, thanks to the ridge of high pressure locating a bit further SE by Sunday noon, relegating the easterly to the far southern reaches of the UK... obviously being where I am,  I'm hoping for further adjustments to position it another hundred miles or so further south, but for most, the above should be sufficient for a springlike feel under light winds and temperatures at least making it to double figures.

Looking on to the following week, and GFS continues to be keen on bringing a Scandi trough into play for us, resulting in a couple of chillier days - though nothing to write home about. As for ECM... well, that has other ideas, moving the system over Scandinavia away from us before it can have much influence on our weather, and making a lot more of a trough developing across a regions spanning from the northern fringes of Africa to NW France.

While the GFS solution (left) takes the polar maritime air right the way down toward the heart of France, The ECM solution (right) sees it meeting opposition across Southern England, in the form of a tropical continental airmass (technical name referring to an origin well south of the UK and a track across a continent... don't be led into thinking that means it will feel tropical!) coming around the eastern flank of that complex Euro-trough.

The collision of the two airmasses on the ECM run could mean persistent rain for Southern England, but couple that with milder temperatures and taking into account that the year so far has been notably drier than average with a good part of that down to the past couple of weeks, and there's a good case for this being a preferable option over what looks to be a bothersome wind and risk of overnight frost if the GFS route is taken.

I actually like that ECM run quite a lot compared to a lot of the output over the past week or so. It almost manages to trap that Euro trough in place long enough to start importing some notable warmth and instability to the south in particular (April showers with a hint of summer). Not something to go betting on but you never know - it would essentially be a variation on the pattern we have at the moment, which is providing the Balearic Isles with some unusually early warmth and a chance of storms.

Good morning. Firstly apologies for those attempting to access my website. The Server is down currently from my Servers end and I'm not sure when the service is resumed. Not happy. Meanwhile I will do the daily analysis direct from this forum today.
 
The Current Analysis. A slack air pressure gradient exists across the UK as High pressure continues to dominate. Through tomorrow a weakening front moves slowly South across Northern Britain.
 
The 2 Week Weather Headline. Fairly quiet Spring weather with just a little rain between lengthy dry and bright periods. Perhaps more genrally unsettled and windy in the North later.
 
GFS Jet Stream Forecast. The Jet Stream is aligned SW to NE to the NW of the UK before truning South down over the UK or the North Sea over the coming days. Through next week the flow gradually becomes somewhat stronger and eventually sets up on a West to East course across the UK through the second week as surface winds strengthen in association with Low pressure to the North.
 
http://www.netweathe...ction=jetstream
 
GFS Clusters. The GFS clusters show a lot of variations on a High pressure based outlook this morning but with a 40% share indicating a much more mobile West or NW flow with rain or showers at times with High pressure much further to the SW of the UK.
 
http://www.weatheron...8;HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV
 
The GFS Operational The GFS Operational shows quite changeable conditions across the UK over the coming two weeks but with only a gradual decline into conditions unsettled enough to give much in the way of rain, especially in the South. The basic premise is for High pressure to lie down to the SW with Atlantic troughs crossing East over the North of the UK and then SE over Europe, each giving it's own version of rain followed by chilly weather with some showers, wintry on the hills. Even by the end of the run there is still a lot of dry weather shown near the South as High pressure remains not far from the South of England.
 
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif
 
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
The GFS Control Run is not dissimilar with the same changeable pattern illustrated throughout the two week period today and also showing High pressure down to the SW of the UK deflecting the worst of the cloud and rain away to the North of the UK with a lot of benign Westerly winds across the South with a lot of cloud but not much in the way of rain.
 
UKMO today shows a front moving South early next week with some rain introducing some cold and unstable and likely showery air midweek with some wintry showers on high ground almost anywhere during the afternoons and a strong chance of frosts at night.
 
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif
 
The Fax Charts today show a weak front crssing slowly South tomorrow and followed by High pressure again for many over the weekend in chilly air. A further front is shown to move South early next week, rather more active than it's predecessor with some rain for all for a time.
 
http://www.weatherch...kmomslp.htm#t24
 
GEM this morning shows three weather types this morning over the next 10 days. In the next few days a lot of dry and benign weather will ensue with a lot of cloud but only a little rain from a trough from the NW from tomorrow. Then a few dry days are followed by the second phase when a cold North or NW breeze carries wintry showers down over parts of the UK towards the middle of next week before the final pahse sees increasing Westerly winds and more unsettled weather, especially in the North under average temperatures by then.
 
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif
 
NAVGEM looks very similar in sequence of events towards the middle of next week with a little rain for all on the cold front moving South. The model and front then introduce a cold and unstable pattern across the UK a week from now with some rain in cold air and wintry showers as a result in places.
 
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif
 
ECM today has moderated it's tone in respect of the passage of the cold weather shown by some other output towards the middle of next week. The cold air just takes a glancing blow at Eastern Britain with a day or so of the risk of a wintry shower before the return of a strong Atlantic Westerly wind drives milder and more changeable conditions across the UK late in the run with rain at times with strong winds in the North.
 
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif
 
ECM 10 Day Mean Charts. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart remains largely unchanged from yesterday morning with High pressure near the Azores and Low pressure well to the NW with a broad Westerly flow with rain at times in average temperatures, most of the rain over the North and West.
 
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif
 
Trend Changes From Previous Days are generally much in the same vein as was shown yesterday but with less impact from the Euros on the Northerly midweek next week and the extent South of the later changeable weather shown by all models watered down somewhat again today in respect to Southern Britain.
 
MY THOUGHTS The pattern this morning has basically changed little over the last 24 hours. For a time it looked like we could have a couple of very showery days next week under a cold Northerly which could of given daytime wintry showers to many and frost at night. This morning this theory has been watered down as the axis of the Northerly is further to the East and quickly replaced by a ridge of High pressure and the strengthening Westerly flow that all models seem to indicate likely through the second week. With all this tooing and froing of how much influence fronts and Low pressure have over any one place is dependant on where in the UK you live. As has been the case all Winter the same scenario is still influencing the UK weather in that High pressure down to the SW is still proving strong enough to ward off any full blooded attack of Atlantic Westeries and attendant rain or showers at least from the South while the North may see more appreciable rain and showers later in the period while the South see little more than occasional rain mixed in with longer drier if rather cloudy skies. With winds from a West or NW point for the most part temperatures will be unspectacular but never particularly cold with some warm sunny breaks at times though overall temperatures will be no more than average or just a little below for much of the time.

Looking very average Spring weather really going by most of the models runs.

A bit of everything on offer bar any warm up that is.

Hi all,

Here's today's first video;

Cold Snap Early Next Week, Then Westerlies;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Quite a lot going on for next 8-10 days.

This March so far for me has been quite dreary - This week is very bad.

The Met/o 12z isn't without interest with wintry showers quite possible.

I wouldn't mind if it was mild, but cold and dreary? Ugh  Hope we do get the westerlies to make things more mobile 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

There's the westerly's after a cold start with showers/wintry showers next week from the ECM 12z.

Fair to say that GFS won this battle... uppers of -5*C or below covering very nearly the whole of the UK next Tuesday.

March 2015 continues to frustrate right toward the end, careering well wide of late February's indications for the month. It joins January 2015 as one of the least interesting (hence enjoyable!) months of weather I have ever known. The second half of February '15 can go in that bucket too.

I'm heading to the Beacons for a week starting 28th March and I sense that the weather might try to bring some more anomalous conditions to our shores by that time. Trouble is, it might be of the stormy variety - watching each new set of runs a little nervously.

Positives, positives... well, maybe about a third of the UK will manage clear enough skies for viewing of the solar eclipse tomorrow morning, and it looks like being one of the most pleasant afternoons so far this year across much of England.

Sunday might be pretty good too. Some consolation for such a lack of interesting conditions 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY MARCH 20TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A light Northerly flow across the UK will be maintained today with a weak front moving South across the UK today and tonight with High pressure returning tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A slow change in weather type will commence from the middle of next week as a cold and showery period gives way to milder and more changeable weather in Westerly winds with the most wind and rain in the North and West

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is aligned SW to NE to the NW of the UK before turning Southwest across France over the coming days before the general thrust and trend to the flow becomes stronger on a more direct West to East motion across the UK later in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows the quiet weather currently across the UK under a ridge of High pressure slowly collapsing away early next week firstly by a chilly Northerly phase with sharp and potentially wintry showers and then more generally changeable conditions with rain and showers at times in alternating temperatures for the rest of the period from the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run mirrors the operational run well with a chilly and showery phase under a Northerly next week, most prolific across the South introducing a more unsettled phase with rain at times in mostly Westerly winds later. The South may well settle sown somewhat later as High pressure edges up from the South.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters once more show a lot of High pressure near to the UK in 15 days time with 15% indicating High pressure sitting over the UK then with 60% suggesting the High down to the SW. 25% show a strong and chilly NW flow with showers.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cold front moving South across the UK early next week bringing several days of cold and showery weather with some snow on high ground of the East for a time. A ridge moving SE later next week cuts off the cold supply to introduce more of a changeable Westerly pattern 1 week from now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show High pressure receding away South early next week as a cold front moves South with a pool of cold and unstable air following the front over all parts of the Uk towards the middle of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows the same story as the other output this morning in bringing a cold and showery few days under Northerly winds next week before milder but stronger Westerly winds introduce changeable conditions with rain at times thereafter with the North and West as usual in these conditions seeing the most wind and rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds on to the colder period next week somewhat longer with conditions at the end of the run 1 week from now replicating conditions of the other models a day or so earlier with a ridge lying across the UK from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today too shows a chilly and showery period next week under a slack and unstable airflow from the North giving way slowly to milder Westerly winds by next weekend with the best conditions in the South by then as High pressure rebuilds close by.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart remains largely unchanged from yesterday morning with High pressure near the Azores and Low pressure well to the NW with a broad Westerly flow with rain at times in average temperatures, most of the rain over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trend Changes From Previous Days are generally much in the same vein as was shown yesterday but with still good support for a cold Northerly for a time next week and the weaker extent South of the later changeable weather in respect to Southern Britain.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.9 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.6 pts over UKMO at 89.4 pts and GFS at 88.3. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.8 pts over GFS's 62.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.6 pts over GFS at 45.4.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models this morning continue to indicate a more changeable pattern setting up across the UK under a more mobile Westerly flow although the extent of this will be quite limited in the South in terms of rainfall and wind strengths. In the short term there will continue to be sevarl days of quiet weather with no more than occasional bands of cloud and a little rain seeping South over the UK with some decent dry and fine weather for many too. Then early next week a more coherent band of rain on a more active cold front introduces a spell of colder and more volatile weather with the chance of some lively daytime showers under a cold Northerly flow around Tuesday and Wednesday of next week when hail, thunder, sleet and snow could all feature. It doesn't look like lasting long though as the Jet flow shows signs of strengthening over the Atlantic and eventually driving across the UK with Low pressure developing to the North of the UK with strong West winds and rain bearing troughs sweeping East across the UK although with High pressure building relatively close to the South of Britain. All in all though there is not much in the way of anything abnormal weather wise than one would normally expect in March with temperatures generally recovering to average levels after the cold period of next week.

Issued at 08:00 Friday March 20th 2015

Thank you Martin.. Thermals coming out again..

Met/o 12z looks interesting from a convective point of view.

Everyone was talking about the eclipse today, all I was talking about was the potential for hail and thunder on Tuesday.

Hmmn... GFS and GEFS combined suggests a good chance of a milder westerly regime returning by Friday next week, after a couple of 'nothing much' days (col conditions, between the easterly over Europe and westerly in the Atlantic).

Yet now we have ECM making a lot more of a secondary low just east of the UK Wed-Thu, which hold us in a chilly (for the time of year) E to NE flow through those days, this colder airmass then mixing out the 'warmth' associated with the westerlies when they arrive on Friday.

ECM seems to be a particularly unfortunate case as far as a seasonal feel to our weather is concerned, with UKMO managing to outgun GFS in bringing a westerly flow to our shores. JMA sits between UKMO and GFS, further relegating ECM to outlier territory.

Whether that run is an outlier compared to it's ensembles is hard to tell from the mean, but it seems it's probably at the more extreme end with the extent to which LP develops east of the UK as opposed to down toward Italy - which makes a big difference in terms of how much of the chilly air we have to put up with as opposed to a tepid mix of that and warmer air being drawn up from southern Europe.

Longer term, those westerlies look a strong bet indeed, with the main question being over how far south the Atlantic lows manage to exert their influence. The unsettled/settled boundary could end up anywhere between Northern England and The Channel from the looks of today's runs. ECM's day 10 slider has loose support based on the ECM ensemble mean and spreads... how many false dawns will we see before spring decides to stick around? 

I have to say though, today turned out finer than I had anticipated, and the lunchtime stroll in the sun will keep me happier for a week or so