The latest MRF for the weekend from the MetO still promises a decent weekend but is at total odds with both ECM and GFS which really ramp up that low Saturday destroying the weekend north of Birmingham.

It's as if the MetO has promised everyone a BBQ weekend and refuses now to accept reality!

Either that or they now something we don't.

in the meantime my reputation is shattered again after promising everyone a BBQ Saturday afternoon and insisting that they bring sun cream, a thick coat may now be more useful.

Andy

Please note my signature below, what did John Daley know in 1998 when despite all the forecasts of UK Mediterranian summers he was having none of it. Lol

The Law of Sod

Well I can be a little smug down here in Southern Spain this week and next. It is bloody hot down here but with classic thunderstorms forming each afternoon over the inland mountains just to my North and dissolving through the evenings. What seems so frustrating for the UK is just a 2 hour flight South is all that is needed to take you into true Summer and yet for the UK we have to put up with what seems passing glances from something resembling Summer so far this year. Still a long way to go and plenty of time for change.

Lucky man.   Hope the family have a good holiday....

Sounds just like winter in the UK!

Cheap flights south for summer, cheap flights north for winter!

Yes the models are unusually divergent from T72, let's see which way ECM flops.

Again, ECM remains very good for southern areas Appreciate that's not everyone

So the one day plume may be back on it seems... but then what? ECM and GFS develop quite a strong storm system to the W the NW which is slow to clear off, though the south escapes it's effects. Meanwhile UKMO has a weaker and faster moving system... still a bit of a mystery what exactly we'll end up with.

All that can really be concluded with much confidence is that some dry weather is likely next week, and probably managing temperatures close to average i.e. much of England seeing high teens to around 20*C in the far south.

I'd be okay with that, though another sample of the very warm conditions over France wouldn't go amiss. GFS and ECM both show opportunities here and there.

Frankly, it could be worse. As we're seeing this evening 

Good points  - You can say that again. Its like October here atm.

So basically barring the odd  it looks to be fairly dry, and increasingly rather warm at times after the next 36 hrs have passed. 

No mega heatwave but conversely no unseasonable chilly crap either.

18z GFS op is another good one. High pressure aplenty. 

Yep, all the models continue to show a settled and pleasantly warm high pressure dominated scenario into next week. The exact positioning of the high will determine temps and cloud amounts. Very nice  

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 2ND 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong Westerly flow slowly decreasing later as the depression responsible moves slowly away NE over the Northern North Sea.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Gradually becoming more settled with sunny spells and warm conditions too for some especially in the West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow blowing across the UK currently backing Southerly over the coming days before becoming light and less focused on position over the following weeks.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a change in the weather on the way for the UK. Low pressure will gradually become less influential as the Jet flow responsible weakens and High pressure gradually moves in from the West. There is a spell of warm weather late this week for the SE, quickly displaced by cooler fresher air as the High establishes. The rest of the run shows High pressure near the North of the UK with Easterly winds in the South. Fine and quite warm weather is likely moreso later as winds turn more SE and the risk of thundery showers reaches the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a similar pattern with High pressure gradually developing just to the West or NW of the UK. the problem with this run is that it never develops in a favourable enough position to prevent cool North or NE winds from blowing across the UK and while dry for all for much of the time some cloudier and cool breezes are possible and some showers in the SE too as pressure falls for a time on the continent..

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a real mixed bag of options, so much so than no real clear definition of where synoptics will lie at the two week time point can be determined

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things improvong steadily now for the rest of the week. However, 1 more trough crosses East on Friday bringing a fall in temperatures after a brief warm and humid period. Thereafter winds become Easterly in the South and rather fresh at that while the North sees the best of the dry and bright weather in light winds as High pressure builds across these areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the tentative improvements later in the week as High pressure gradually replaces the trough laden latitudes surrounding the UK currently.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today continues to prefer a more changeable period being maintained over the next 10 days and while some decent weather could be enjoyed for all at times a change to more unsettled weather with rain at times, some possibly thundery never looks that far away as small but influential Low pressure replaces ridges of High pressure at other times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme of GFS this morning building pressure up to the NW of the UK next week setting up a strong Easterly flow across the South and bringing fine and dry conditions to the North with the best of the sunshine there-all this after a period of unsettled weather over the weekend as Low pressure edges NE in rather humid air ahead of rather fresher conditions thereafter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM's theme does look like the most popular theme between the models today as High pressure eventually builds up to the NW of the UK with a ridge across the North and an Easterly flow across the South. After a slightly unsettled end to the week and weekend things look like becoming dry everywhere but cool near eastern coasts with the best of the sunshine in the West. Then as High pressure migrates East towards Scandinavia late in the run a thundery breakdown moving up from the SW looks possible later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows slack pressure maintained over the UK in 10 days time with High pressure the main player with a lot of dry and settled weather with the risk of thundery showers in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for High pressure to develop close to NW and then North or NE of Britain in the longer term is quite strong this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 86.0 over UKMO's 81.9 pts with GFS at 81.9. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.2 over 43.8. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 28.1 pts to 21.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main theme this morning appears to be for a trend towards High pressure to build towards the NW of the UK with an Easterly flow developing across the South. In the interim period the burst of high temperatures earlier expected later this week seem all but dead in the water now and although it will feel a marked improvement on events of recent days, warm and humid is the way I would describe it briefly before fresher conditions return South over all areas at the weekend as the High to the NW builds. Then next week it will be dry and bright for many and become warm in places, especially towards the West and North while a nagging East wind could bring rather cool conditions near North Sea English coasts. There could also be a trend towards pressure to fall over mainland Europe sufficiently enough at times to feed a risk of thundery showers up into Southern Britain at times later in the period. However, all that said it does look like a pattern change is still on the way as the Jet stream finally loses much of it's impetus and something more akin of what we should expect at this time of year looks likely for all over the next week or two as High pressure looks likely to settle close to the NW, North and later the NE of the UK and while that might not bring record breakingly high temperatures across the UK pleasantly warm conditions for many should be possible under these synoptics.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 3rd 2015

I find the ridge behavior quite odd (and very frustrating). First we have our warm ridge zipping eastward at a million miles an hour, sweeping our day-wave across to eastern Europe by Saturday. Then, when an even stronger ridge looks likely to build in right over the UK, this one screeches to a halt on our doorstep and hits reverse! 

ECM is more promising in resisting the retrogression, but it was also more promising for the day-wave originally and ended up moving towards the GFS output, so I don't know what to think of tonight's 12Z. At least it will be relatively high pressure dominated for a while after the weekend. 

Yup looks quite chilly by night with the GFS 12Z as high pressure is centered over the West of the UK. If that were to come off it would be a noticeably cool opening week to June. Beats 2012 though but with such cool SSTs to our west for the time of year coupled with warm SSTs to the WSW I can imagine it could be difficult to cut off the influence of the Atlantic, but what do I know? :P

That 12z GFS op run is a shocker in terms of temperatures, often stuck in the mid-teens for most even when it's dry. To be honest when I looked through it and thought about what we were looking at just 5 days ago, my reaction was along the lines of 'FFS can't we catch a break?'.

Thankfully, ECM is appreciably better, even as early as Friday when the plume is allowed to hang on further west. Even the southwest would be seeing temperatures nicely into the 20's. Of course it also places us in line of fire for some thunderstorms 

The weekend is then at least a little warmer than GFS goes for, maybe managing 20*C in the far south which is what my local forecast alluded to this evening. Not doing very well in the north though and this persists for the following week, during which it's a case of southwest is best. 

It's still infuriating to watch that area of low pressure take all the time in the world to clear away northeast, working with a mid-Atlantic high to drag so much cool air in our direction in the process. It doesn't stop there either, as recent GFS runs have started using it to prevent our area of high pressure from heading east into Europe and allowing us to warm up a bit, and while ECM does relent, it now takes until Wednesday to do so.

It's a freaky run of poor luck, determined by some very particular low pressure placement. Not just the one near our shores on Friday - if that low near the Azores in 4 days time was further west or north or even east, we'd be seeing a decent push of warmer air from the southwest by Sunday.

Sorry to be so downbeat today - I've had a lot of negative events in other aspects of my life so far this year so my usual firewall of optimism is in tatters. Everyone has to fight for their peace of mind every now and then... it's just the way life goes.

Keeping calm, forecasting on 

Tonight's GEFS12z looks very disappointing although I've not had time to look through the individual runs:

I think next week west will be best away from what could become a nagging northerly breeze that will set up to the east of the high.

IMBY it should be OK as the Lake District does well in a northerly drift with plenty of shelter from the slack northerly flow.

This time of year the sun is so strong and if it's sunny and calm it will feel warm no matter what the 850 uppers are!

Andy

That I will never understand the stupidity of the pressure pattern, if you look at the charts in the winter time LP often come to halt when over at UK then reverse back and another repeat again so that keeping the cold air out in full force.  We need LP to move east to allow colder air feed to reach here.  So in summer we need HP to move east to allow warmer air feed but see this in the winter when it unwanted.

If we can pull in some dry enough air, we may escape the rapid build of cloud that usually occurs by mid-morning under anomalously cold upper air temperatures in summer. You never know I suppose!

...and thanks Alan (MVW), it's a part of what makes us human, how we deal with our challenges. We develop in a way that no other creature on this Earth can match. I know that for me, the future is almost definitely brighter than the present day, which is really something 

Now come on Atlantic High, take a holiday over the UK, don't be shy. Please. We can pay money. Oh right, you've no need for money. Hmmn.

Goodnight 

I must be easily pleased because I continue to love the UKMO and GFS this morning. 

If we look beyond the terrible let down of this weekend next week looks good for everyone especially those in the west.

temperatures should climb above average by Tuesday and stay there the rest of the week and for once all the models agree on this solution.

we are all used to downgrades but this weekend takes some beating, temperatures here for Saturday 6th June were forecasted to be 23c just last Sunday but are now predicted at 13c, that's a 10 degree drop! Appalling model performance and they all did equally bad.

Andy