LOL, LIs of -10 and over 2,000 j/kg CAPE. Fantasy stuff indeed.

As you say, shame it'll be gone tomorrow.

ECM continues to look very decent. 

Spot the pigeon.

Good ECM especially for the South with lots of warm sunshine then it all goes bang on day 9.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Looks like a glancing blow by the plume initially followed by another bite shortly after, albeit an unstable one

Could be an interesting spell of weather coming up with something for the heat lovers, something for the storm lovers and something for them's that just like low 20's and a few dry days

Oh and 10 day modelling is always rubbish, particularly in vaguely tricky setups where small global changes mean big shifts for our tiny little bit

I see spaghetti

What a calamity... the models clearly went up the garden path a couple of days ago.

Question is, are they still doing that now?

What's currently shown to take place Thursday-Saturday requires a very particular jet configuration in exactly the right region to create divergence aloft and allow low pressure to develop along the boundary between the hot continental air and much cooler Atlantic air.

From a plume hunter's perspective it's pretty much the worst bit of luck I can recall in 7 years of model watching, and the biggest kick in the teeth since what happened with ex-Bertha last August.

Hopefully we'll still manage a fine weekend as the low clears away quickly with a new ridge in behind. With a bit of luck (now vastly overdue) we could manage to get a plume out of that one as it rolls on east.

The ECM 12z op is painful from that perspective, just about managing it for the far south only for another low to sweep NE despite a total lack of upper level westerlies to make use of. I am not amused!

GFS is acceptable in higher-res, after which it inspires some unpleasant commentary as it manages to work against the odds to lock in a small area of cool air over the UK while it's nice and warm to the east and west. I'll keep that to myself, of course.

As is plain to see from my style of writing, the frequent mediocrity of May 2015 coupled with this enormous dangling of the carrot has finally started to get to me. So many promising longer range signals got put back and/or removed this month that the recent tendency to stick us back in cool air by days 9-10 from ECM and GFS has started to give me a slight sense of dread.

At least if it does all go wrong, I can run away to the Mediterranean for the final week of the month and let the hot sun melt away my troubles. It can't some soon enough!

I gotta say, UKMO is remarkable in its differences to the other models. It makes hardly anything of the potential LP development on Friday, and then positions that high in the right way to bring about the hot weekend that the BBC anticipate, at least for southern parts.

Past experience tells me that the models do tend to overdo the low pressure development when it involves a big contrast in temperatures, and therein lies the brightest beacon of hope that I can find tonight.

Yes, I just used the word 'therein'. I read a lot of books as a kid 

For some reason the FGS model seems to be obsessed about that small low pressure system:

But then it is expected to get very quickly shunted away by a renewed high pressure set up as soon as 24 hours later after this.

I'm sure the picture will be more clearer when it all move into METO FAX charts territory.  

Cracking looking UKMO this morning. 

Is it anything to do with Dastardly and Muttley?

I'm in Fuengirola Spain for the time being while my family look after things at home but I'll continue to supply reports to you each day with just the times being a bit later than usual for the most part.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 1ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A unseasonably deep depression crossing close to NW Scotland will drive active troughs of Low pressure across the UK in very strong SW winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable, windy and cool at first then drier, warmer and sunnier for all later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow moving NE across the UK over the coming days. Eventually it shows signs of buckling and weakening as it tries to migrate to latitudes further north of the Uk for a time next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows deep low pressure slowly giving way to a day or two of warm and humid weather before a breakdown from the SW returns more changeable conditions before and over next weekend. High pressure then forms to the West of the UK for a time bringing cooler, fresher and drier air before the pattern breaks down again to Atlantic Low pressure close to Northern Britain late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control in many respects follows the course of the operational as cool weather returns after a couple of warm and humid days late this week. The pattern then shows High to the West and relatively cool North or NW breezes down over the UK before Low pressure gradually reasserts authority towards the end of the run from Scandinavia.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a real mixed bag of options, so much so than no real clear definition of where synoptics will lie at the two week time point can be determined

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things gently improving from midweek as the strong and unstable Westerly airflow prior to this is replaced by light winds and warm temperatures across the South although unsettled conditions look like remaining over the North and West with the warmest conditions restricted more towards the SE where thundery showers could occur on Friday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the tentative improvements later in the week as High pressure sucks warm and humid air into the South and East for a time before Atlantic fronts erode it again from the West by the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today looks very changeable in stature this morning as it indicates spells of unsettled weather under low pressure alternating with short spells of High pressure based conditions when some fine and warm conditions could be enjoyed for all between rain and showers..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM never look very dynamic with it's weather patterns over the next week with the SE at risk of both thundery showers and some of the best conditions too under bith Hiugh and lower pressure periods. The NW is shown to be more commonly changeable and rather cooler through the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM doesn't look too bad this morning with a lot of very warm air flirting with the South at times over the coming week. There could be some thundery rain at times as various trough interact with the flow and give rise to some cooler conditions more prevalent late in the period as winds swing more Northerly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN N/A.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend for better weather looks to be somewhat more diluted from some of the output currently.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.6 pts followed by UKM at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 85.9 over UKMO's 82.0 pts with GFS at 81.7. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.5 over 44.5. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 28.7 pts to 22.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There has been some watering down of the overall shift towards warm and sunny weather since my last report with more interventions from either cooler air from the North or NW or unsettled conditions moving in from the West. The main concern to me looks the desire to eventually have High pressure shifted out to the west of the Uk with further cool Northerly winds likely as a result across the UK later in the period. While this all might seem doom and gloom talk on the face of all there is still a shift towards at least a period of warm and humid conditions especially the further SE you live within the UK which by the same token could give rise to the greatest risk of thundery rain here too. The further North and West you travel though would likely see morespells of cloud and rain from depressions moving NE across the North and the resultant rise of pressure behind one of these at the weekend could give rise to the cooler Northerly winds I mentioned earlier. Still the ensembles still point to a very mixed picture with no clear trend shown to where we might be synoptically two weeks from now so hold on to your horses would be my advice as I expect to see more shifts of emphasis between warm and settled and cooler and unsettled to be shown in the upcoming days between all models.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 2nd 2015

The ECM 00z op run turned out to be a kind of UKMO-GFS hybrid. A brief spell of low-level heat for the south on Friday when mid-20's may be achieved, before a blast of fresh air on Saturday that affects the north far more than the south, after which we see very warm conditions ease back into the far south while the north remains in that cool Atlantic air.

The temperature gradient by Monday (shown above) looks to be quite dramatic if this sort of evolution is followed.

Having said all this, little faith can be placed in anything much when you've got not one but two highly uncertain areas of low pressure involved within the next 5-6 days. The handling of Friday's system by the GFS 00z op was certainly a push against the general trend of the past couple of days, and the 06z op is looking very similar, if a bit faster with the movement of the low.

At times like this people like me find their shoulders rising and falling a lot more often than usual 

We're at some friends' BBQ on Saturday and they were thrilled when I told them at the weekend that we could have a heatwave next weekend.

Less so when I told them yesterday that the heatwave was now cancelled.

Thing is, as we're halfway up the UK (well, a little south of halfway; better mention that before the pedants get me), it's knife-edge as to whether we'll have more of an influence from the S or the N. Additionally, how nice the weekend is depends a lot on whether we get winds from an E'ern or W'ern general direction.

Not "Flaming June"  May yet be saying    "Flipping June" ......

The media have now joined in and ended it - If it does get warm then its looking like it will be very short lived and I hope I'm wrong - but the cynical side of me is now taking over.

I do hope some more definite improvement shows up soon or else.