Each year, around this time in Spring ,I post this thread asking the experts and amateurs ,and those who have a genuine interest in our weather, for their thoughts and views, on how our summer may shape up this year. I appreciate and understand it is early days as we are only half way through spring, but with the weather patterns as they are at present, views and ideas appreciated for discussion. Mods may wish to put this in the'sticky' section of the forum.

For those that haven't seen it yet, here's the first summer 15 update that I did back in March;

www.gavsweathervids.com/summer-2015-forecast.php

Overall wasn't pointing towards a great summer.

The second update will be released on Sunday and will be very interesting to see what it's showing...

I've seen a lot over the past half-dozen weeks to suggest that summer is likely to feature a lot of warmer than average conditions again this year, but it also appears that Atlantic lows tracking unusually far south - i.e. toward the Azores - may tend to get too close for comfort.

So perhaps a more often unstable version of summer 2014, with the fine spells tending to be shorter-lived... but only if the latest projections land close to the mark, which is far from guaranteed. Frankly I have found much of the latest guidance to be rather weak in signal strength, with conditions across the UK difficult to resolve as we sit between an anomalously cold Atlantic - a high probability due to thermal inertia of the oceans; the cold stuff is there as I type and will take a lot of work to overturn - and anomalously warm continent - also high probability based on recent years - it's becoming the norm for a large part of Europe to roast.

I do see a higher than normal chance of an exceptional heatwave event, should the mean Azores low combine with a sufficient Euro high for a long enough period of time. In other words, the broad-scale pattern looks to on average be unusually close to what's needed to produce the sort of trouble we saw in 2003. Something to watch warily.

Only three words.

North east wind.

Seems to have been a regular feature recently when it comes to our summers at this end.

Much preferred then those pesky SW winds lol :-)

This is very true.. :-D 

Really?

No predictions, that would be pointless. What I hope for us is one of regular spells of extreme heat and humidity. 

In reality that's about as likely as the coldies getting their wish during winter. 

Indeed.

SW wind is usually a banker for sun and sufficient warmth here from April- October (unless its too cyclonic, that is).

Personally id love to see another 1976 or even to see that summer consigned to the 2nd hottest summer on record. I suppose that`s akin to coldies wishing to see a repeat of winter `63. Not going to happen!!

Realistically my gut feeling this summer is going to be cool and mainly dry,something like 2011 and June will probably be the best month.

Interesting to compare current SSTs with 1961-1990 climatology - while the positive anomalies are generally more widespread and extreme, there are still some notable negative anomalies too.

The one in the Pacific looks to be related to a large-scale circulation anomaly that is usually in place in one mode or the other (measured by the PDO).

The central North Atlantic anomaly may be at least partially related to a weaker than normal Gulf Stream. Unusually frequent or persistent low pressure between Iceland and the Azores could also be driving the anomalies, but it might also be a consequence of the anomalies - a chicken and egg paradox.

The ocean near Antarctica has an appearance that I expect is related to a more vigorous ice development and melt-out cycle than was the case during the base period; sea ice is able to expand further in the winter months due to increased snowfall (higher moisture levels) acting to lower sea temperatures further than used to occur, but during summer this ice isn't stable enough to resist the usual seasonal melt, which takes a lot of energy out of the ocean and further lowers the SSTs.
At least, that's what I've gathered from various seminars and lectures over the years. 

Anyway, the Atlantic anomaly pattern, combined with recent long-range model outlooks, continues to suggest a warm but often unstable summer to me. Interestingly, it appears that high pressure may become unusually strong over Europe by the second half of May, before gradually easing off in June, only to make a comeback in July or August. Low pressure is often between SW and NW of the UK, attempting to destablise conditions but often allowing for some significant warm or hot spells ahead of them.

I can't say I tend put a lot of faith into such long-range outlooks, but the current agreement between the models and what I theorise the SSTs may tend to encourage is adding a little more weight to my expectations than usual.

Hi Mods. We haven't got a summer thoughts and forecasts thread yet, and so, to co-incide with my annual LRF, could we possibly sticky this thread for members to put their thoughts and forecasts etc?

My summer LRF is being announced today (below) and will be here throughout the summer to be praised or shot down in flames (which ever is relevant!).

So here we go!

Hi guys. Well here goes, my annual attempt (guess) at a summer forecast.

Mods, perhaps you could sticky this thread for members to comment and post their own thoughts.

This is purely how I anticipate the summer to pan out. I could be right, I could be wrong, I could be somewhere in between.

So here goes!

Moomin75’s 2015 summer forecast

Overview: Slightly warmer than average with average or slightly below average rainfall throughout all three months.

Much of this rainfall will be in June and July in the form of showers, many of these thundery in nature, with August perhaps drier than average overall.

My methodology is predominantly pattern matching, but I also consider the influence of the jet stream, which I believe will trend towards assuming a more normal “summer” position this year to the north of the UK.

I also consider the solar activity, and also the influence of a possible developing El Nino (using some of the information from the excellent Gavin Partridge in my thoughts).

I expect the jet stream to be in a more familiar "summer like" position this year, and I believe that the blocking patterns this year will lead to some very warm spells of summer weather at times, with less attacks of low pressure across central and southern parts.

Occasional attacks from the Atlantic, pushing against blocking to the north and east will result in some thundery breakdowns at times, most of these in central, southern and south western parts in June and July.

June 2015: I believe June 2015 will begin on a fairly cool unsettled note, with frequent showers and longer spells of rain across the country, particularly central southern and south-western parts.

However, in any drier spells and sheltered from the wind, there will still be occasional pleasantly warm interludes.

The jet stream will be begin to track steadily to the north of the UK after this briefly unsettled start, meaning that much of the rainfall will die out in the early part of the period, becoming more sporadic in nature, with strong ridging from the Azores taking effect from the back end of the first week.

Into the second week of the month, I believe high pressure will become established more to our north and also to the east, allowing warm gentle easterly or north-easterly winds to take hold across the UK.

However, the whole of the UK will be under the influence of this blocking high as low pressure systems often associated with early June are kept at bay.

Some south-western areas may be a little cloudier and damp at times, but elsewhere, showers will be few and far between.

After a coolish first week of June, I expect temperatures to pick up considerably during the second week, getting into the low to mid twenties nationwide, feeling very warm in long sunny spells.

Towards the end of June, I believe the weather will begin to turn unsettled from the south west, with spells of rain or showers across many parts of England.

However, it will remain warm or very warm with winds turning southerly or south westerly.

With a potential plume of very warm air from France and Spain, there is the possibility for it to become increasingly humid, with some torrential thunderstorms likely at times, particularly, but not exclusively across the south and the midlands.

Towards the north of England and Scotland, I believe it will stay predominantly dry, closer to the influence of high pressure.

Overall, I expect June’s CET to be AT LEAST 1 degree above average, sunshine at values to be at or above the 1971-2001 average in north, but perhaps average in the south closer to the Atlantic low pressure systems.

I anticipate June to be drier than normal in the north, but further south, overall precipitation should come in around average due to the heavy showers that are likely to affect the latter part of June.

July 2015: July will commence on a fairly settled note, although still with the prospect of heavy and thundery showers in the south.

However, I believe there will be a prospect that the Azores High will link with the large blocking high over Scandinavia to give much of the UK an extremely warm and dry period for the first two weeks of July after perhaps a few unsettled days at the start.

With winds tending to be coming from a southerly quarter, temperatures in the south could soar into the high twenties, and possibly low thirties at times, although not record-breakingly hot.

These high temperatures, combined with high humidity will be a recipe for afternoon and evening showers and storms, most of these centred around the southern half of the UK.

Further north, I believe it will be mainly dry and a little cooler here, but still temperatures easily into the twenties.

Around the middle of July, I anticipate a change to more mobile conditions with the jet stream diving south, and possibly a spell of rather unsettled weather across much of the UK as the Azores High loses its link with the Scandi high.

This will allow the Atlantic in for a while, and could lead to a week or so of cooler and more unsettled weather nationwide.

Much of the wettest and coolest weather will remain in the Midlands and south of the country, while further north, it will be cooler than the start of the month, but slightly drier than the south.

I don’t anticipate this spell of unsettled weather to last too long, and in the second half of July, I expect the jet to re-assume it’s northerly track, allowing the Azores high to again assert its influence across central and southern parts.

Conversely, I believe this will lead to a more unsettled and cooler second half of July in the north as blocking to the north east dissipates.

Temperatures will recover in the south to average, or perhaps slightly above average in the drier spells, but this will not prevent the monthly CET coming in around or slightly above the 1971-2001 average overall.

Overall, I expect July’s rainfall to be around or very slightly above average.

Sunshine amounts will also be around average in the south, although further north, perhaps slightly below average amounts of sunshine and average rainfall due to an unsettled last two weeks of July.

August 2015: I anticipate August to be the best month of the summer nationwide, with some long dry spells, bucking the trend of recent Augusts, which have generally been below par.

I believe the jet stream will be tracking way to the north of the UK, and this should allow ridging from the Azores to become more pronounced, bringing spells of sunshine and warmer weather at times across all areas.

However, I do anticipate further showers at times, many of these sparked by the warmth of the day, and overall, I believe the monthly CET will come out slightly above average overall in the south.

Further north, I anticipate again plenty of settled weather, but with a higher propensity of Atlantic weather systems to make inroads at times.

Summary: All in all, I expect a very reasonable summer for all – probably about on a par with last summer.

I make no apologies for this being a rather “boring” forecast with no massive deviations from what would be seen as a “normal” summer.

I believe there will be some significant warm or hot spells – more so than in the last six years, but nothing record-breaking, with perhaps the hottest part of the summer being in the first week or so of July.

This summer will be notable for occasional thundery breakdowns early in the summer (throughout June), with an unsettled spell in mid-July.

August will probably bring the most pleasant spell of the summer in terms of conditions and temperatures, and I envisage August to buck the trend of the last few years with some very pleasant summer weather.

I believe that the dry August will lead us into a very pleasant start to September, which has rapidly become an extended summer month in recent years.

As I always say guys, please don’t shoot the messenger. I compile these forecasts purely for fun, and as Matty H has always said, all LRF’s are a good deal of guess work.

If I’m right, it will be an achievement, (hopefully I won’t be far off the mark), but this is my genuine thoughts of what we will see during summer 2015.

My guess: boiling hot over the nearby continent, either the same here or we're plagued by NWlies

Moomin, I've merged your thread with the 'Summer 2015' thread and renamed it to reflect your input.

I can't imagine how you devise such detailed projections beyond a few weeks range... whatever your method, good luck I guess 

its pure guess work

the beginning part IS completely contradicting what he was saying would happen in June... 

He was complaining about getting 'shot down in flames' regarding pattern matching/ northern blocking/ his summer forecast... just 7 days ago,  he was sticking to his guns saying summer would be a long time coming, and that we would need to be patient this year.

But now summer is going to arrive after the first week and stick around all month 

I noticed this, but wasn't going to say anything, lol, but seeing as you have - correct. The unsettled pattern was going to last well into June. Northern blocking hard to shift etc etc. This forecast starts based purely on what the models are now showing rather than what he felt they were going to show a week ago. No problem with that as Moomin has always said he's willing to be held to account