Hi Mods. We haven't got a summer thoughts and forecasts thread yet, and so, to co-incide with my annual LRF, could we possibly sticky this thread for members to put their thoughts and forecasts etc?
My summer LRF is being announced today (below) and will be here throughout the summer to be praised or shot down in flames (which ever is relevant!).
So here we go!
Hi guys. Well here goes, my annual attempt (guess) at a summer forecast.
Mods, perhaps you could sticky this thread for members to comment and post their own thoughts.
This is purely how I anticipate the summer to pan out. I could be right, I could be wrong, I could be somewhere in between.
So here goes!
Moomin75’s 2015 summer forecast
Overview: Slightly warmer than average with average or slightly below average rainfall throughout all three months.
Much of this rainfall will be in June and July in the form of showers, many of these thundery in nature, with August perhaps drier than average overall.
My methodology is predominantly pattern matching, but I also consider the influence of the jet stream, which I believe will trend towards assuming a more normal “summer” position this year to the north of the UK.
I also consider the solar activity, and also the influence of a possible developing El Nino (using some of the information from the excellent Gavin Partridge in my thoughts).
I expect the jet stream to be in a more familiar "summer like" position this year, and I believe that the blocking patterns this year will lead to some very warm spells of summer weather at times, with less attacks of low pressure across central and southern parts.
Occasional attacks from the Atlantic, pushing against blocking to the north and east will result in some thundery breakdowns at times, most of these in central, southern and south western parts in June and July.
June 2015: I believe June 2015 will begin on a fairly cool unsettled note, with frequent showers and longer spells of rain across the country, particularly central southern and south-western parts.
However, in any drier spells and sheltered from the wind, there will still be occasional pleasantly warm interludes.
The jet stream will be begin to track steadily to the north of the UK after this briefly unsettled start, meaning that much of the rainfall will die out in the early part of the period, becoming more sporadic in nature, with strong ridging from the Azores taking effect from the back end of the first week.
Into the second week of the month, I believe high pressure will become established more to our north and also to the east, allowing warm gentle easterly or north-easterly winds to take hold across the UK.
However, the whole of the UK will be under the influence of this blocking high as low pressure systems often associated with early June are kept at bay.
Some south-western areas may be a little cloudier and damp at times, but elsewhere, showers will be few and far between.
After a coolish first week of June, I expect temperatures to pick up considerably during the second week, getting into the low to mid twenties nationwide, feeling very warm in long sunny spells.
Towards the end of June, I believe the weather will begin to turn unsettled from the south west, with spells of rain or showers across many parts of England.
However, it will remain warm or very warm with winds turning southerly or south westerly.
With a potential plume of very warm air from France and Spain, there is the possibility for it to become increasingly humid, with some torrential thunderstorms likely at times, particularly, but not exclusively across the south and the midlands.
Towards the north of England and Scotland, I believe it will stay predominantly dry, closer to the influence of high pressure.
Overall, I expect June’s CET to be AT LEAST 1 degree above average, sunshine at values to be at or above the 1971-2001 average in north, but perhaps average in the south closer to the Atlantic low pressure systems.
I anticipate June to be drier than normal in the north, but further south, overall precipitation should come in around average due to the heavy showers that are likely to affect the latter part of June.
July 2015: July will commence on a fairly settled note, although still with the prospect of heavy and thundery showers in the south.
However, I believe there will be a prospect that the Azores High will link with the large blocking high over Scandinavia to give much of the UK an extremely warm and dry period for the first two weeks of July after perhaps a few unsettled days at the start.
With winds tending to be coming from a southerly quarter, temperatures in the south could soar into the high twenties, and possibly low thirties at times, although not record-breakingly hot.
These high temperatures, combined with high humidity will be a recipe for afternoon and evening showers and storms, most of these centred around the southern half of the UK.
Further north, I believe it will be mainly dry and a little cooler here, but still temperatures easily into the twenties.
Around the middle of July, I anticipate a change to more mobile conditions with the jet stream diving south, and possibly a spell of rather unsettled weather across much of the UK as the Azores High loses its link with the Scandi high.
This will allow the Atlantic in for a while, and could lead to a week or so of cooler and more unsettled weather nationwide.
Much of the wettest and coolest weather will remain in the Midlands and south of the country, while further north, it will be cooler than the start of the month, but slightly drier than the south.
I don’t anticipate this spell of unsettled weather to last too long, and in the second half of July, I expect the jet to re-assume it’s northerly track, allowing the Azores high to again assert its influence across central and southern parts.
Conversely, I believe this will lead to a more unsettled and cooler second half of July in the north as blocking to the north east dissipates.
Temperatures will recover in the south to average, or perhaps slightly above average in the drier spells, but this will not prevent the monthly CET coming in around or slightly above the 1971-2001 average overall.
Overall, I expect July’s rainfall to be around or very slightly above average.
Sunshine amounts will also be around average in the south, although further north, perhaps slightly below average amounts of sunshine and average rainfall due to an unsettled last two weeks of July.
August 2015: I anticipate August to be the best month of the summer nationwide, with some long dry spells, bucking the trend of recent Augusts, which have generally been below par.
I believe the jet stream will be tracking way to the north of the UK, and this should allow ridging from the Azores to become more pronounced, bringing spells of sunshine and warmer weather at times across all areas.
However, I do anticipate further showers at times, many of these sparked by the warmth of the day, and overall, I believe the monthly CET will come out slightly above average overall in the south.
Further north, I anticipate again plenty of settled weather, but with a higher propensity of Atlantic weather systems to make inroads at times.
Summary: All in all, I expect a very reasonable summer for all – probably about on a par with last summer.
I make no apologies for this being a rather “boring” forecast with no massive deviations from what would be seen as a “normal” summer.
I believe there will be some significant warm or hot spells – more so than in the last six years, but nothing record-breaking, with perhaps the hottest part of the summer being in the first week or so of July.
This summer will be notable for occasional thundery breakdowns early in the summer (throughout June), with an unsettled spell in mid-July.
August will probably bring the most pleasant spell of the summer in terms of conditions and temperatures, and I envisage August to buck the trend of the last few years with some very pleasant summer weather.
I believe that the dry August will lead us into a very pleasant start to September, which has rapidly become an extended summer month in recent years.
As I always say guys, please don’t shoot the messenger. I compile these forecasts purely for fun, and as Matty H has always said, all LRF’s are a good deal of guess work.
If I’m right, it will be an achievement, (hopefully I won’t be far off the mark), but this is my genuine thoughts of what we will see during summer 2015.
Originally Posted by: moomin75