I was really reluctant to do so at first, i generally think with these kinds of things its politer to just not say anything if i don't agree with them, however... 

in Moomin's case given all the doom & gloom from his corner the urge to say got the better of me 

I am clearly just James Maddens alter ego according to some of you lot

It is pure guess work yes with a bit of pattern matching thrown in.
I'll tell you what you guys are unreal and to be frank I won't bother in the future.
My previous comments were a gut feeling that my to be released lrf would be shot down in flames because contrary to belief I had been writing this LRF over the course of a few weeks.
I admit I feared the worst because of just how bad parts of May had been but I did not want to stop doing it on that alone.
Say whatever you want about me but one thing I don't do is bury my head in the sand and if I see signals for change I will go with it. I don't blindly go on and on with my owb agenda.
I will nail my colour to the mast and say my LRF is my belief now as of 30th May.
To be honest I couldn't care less what any of you think about me apart from the obvious lack of respect that you show for people having a go at something which is a hobby.
I have been on this forum for several years and have always loved it but some of you newer members and one or two senior ones have become frankly quite disrespectful and that is just very disappointing.

In fairness my previous comments WERE NOT my LRF just observations. 

I will not do any more. It's not worth all the ridicule.

Obviously not willing to be held to account after  all. 

evidently not.. 😕

I have no idea what you are on about. 

As pointed out - you were saying unsettled well into June. Then your summer forecast appears with a totally different outlook once it started to become clear that may well not be the case (I'm being careful here not to be as definitive as yourself, as I understand later next week could still be crap), you were called on it - you threw your toys out a little. You're at pains to point out you'll stand or fall by your forecast, yet the first queries on it cause you to flip a little. Who's got the problem here? It's you. 

A ma word of advice: Wait and see what happens. If the models flip and the first half of June is wrecked by northern blocking, as you initially feared, then you have something to work with such as sticking to your initial thoughts. If it happens as currently mapped, then you'll hopefully have learnt something about constantly being so damn sure in your posts at times at such timescales where not even the most professional forecast agency with every bit of technology at their disposal would be remotely confident.

As I say, just a thought. 

God knows, where I was today felt like February - it was perishingly cold!!!

I am going to stop wasting my time on researching past patterns and extrapolating them out to form LRFs, because it does appear that I am ridiculed more often than not.

I only did them as a bit of fun, and have done so every year of the eight years I have been a member of this forum. I don't enjoy being ridiculed and having the p**s ripped out of me purely for following my hobby like everyone else.

You are right, I will wait and see what happens and just play a watching brief from now on. My rant is not aimed at you, but at others, who clearly don't understand mutual respect is what has always made this place such a great forum.

That is what I mean when I say I won't bother any more!

I am on the ropes so I am ceasing to comment further.

Interesting thread

An easy forecast for the Summer is

average temps with the odd warmer spell , that would cover most years I should imagine.

I've had a crack at a summer forecast - I'm sure one or two usual suspects will lampoon me for trying, but alas I don't care :-)

My Spring forecast verified reasonably well - https://www.facebook.com/readingweather/posts/954265741250274:0.

Please note that it is written for my audience based in Reading, so really only can be applicable for the south/south-east of England.

https://www.facebook.com/readingweather/posts/1005090442834470:0

In summary, an often hot and sunny June will not lead to a long hot summer. Details...

June will initially start very unsettled, but very warm and probably hot air will rise from Spain on 4th June. A hot first weekend of June will also be accompanied with the chance of thunderstorms.

This will clear into the second week of June as high pressure becomes established just north of Scotland. A spell of warm or very warm weather follows, with easterly winds meaning that North Sea cloud will be stubborn on some days to clear.

Just after the middle of the month, there may be a brief cooler spell with north-westerly winds, before high pressure again establishes itself over Scandinavia, bringing further warm or hot spells, with thundery outbreaks possible.

Overall temperatures will be well above-average, sunshine will be above or well-above average. Rainfall should be below average - but with very unsettled weather over Spain and France, the south of England may end up with average rainfall depending on the intensity of any rainfall. Around 6-7 days of rain falling - normally heavy or very heavy.

90% confident.

July may start fine, however I expect the jetstream to move north from it's Mediterranean track of June, to bring 2, perhaps 3 weeks of changeable and generally unsettled weather, often from a north-westerly direction, so on the cool side.

High pressure ridges will occasionally nudge in so it won't be unsettled every day, the rain often in the form of showers - say 2-3 days of showers, followed by 2-3 days of pleasant weather.

Towards the end of the month, I expect high pressure to ridge in from the south-west to bring a brief hot spell, followed by thundery outbreaks.

Overall temperatures balancing out at around average - though below for a good chunk of the month, and well-above at the end. Sunshine around average or slightly below average. Rainfall slightly above average. Around 14-15 days of rain falling.

80% confident.

August is always a very tricky month to predict due to the Atlantic hurricane season.

Again a chance of hot or thundery weather for the first few days, though I expect it will again turn changeable and unsettled, like July. I do think it will be similar to August 2014.

Towards the end of the month, again I expect it to turn warmer with some pleasantly settled weather developing.

Overall temperatures around average, with slightly below-average sunshine, and above-average rainfall. Around 15-17 days of rain falling.

As I mentioned, the hurricane season can drastically alter long-term weather patterns at short notice, so only 60% confident for August.

As for September, the current signs are for some late warmth, and the same for October.

October is likely to end wet, with November following on this way. November may well finish cold.

December I currently expect to be a wet month - and my suspicion is winter 2015/06 will be of the wet and fairly mild variety.

I hope you enjoyed reading this forecast - remember it can only be taken as a guide. Things change and one day I will get a seasonal forecast very badly wrong.

A very warm and sunny June ahead, with a more mixed/average July and August. Not a great summer but certainly not as bad as those from 2007-2012 which were frankly, shocking.

Good luck Jame. Naturally I hope this one is accurate 

Just adding my Summer 2015 forecast here for posterity (or infamy maybe?  )

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/summer-2015-forecast.php

A warm and quite thundery Summer predicated...

Will evaluate at the start of Autumn as always.

What's this? High and dry is the call for the UK from the latest Met Office 'ensemble mean maps' update.

Some room there for ridges rolling east through the UK and thundery lows nudging up from the south as per the TWO summer forecast for July, though with a lot of potential for variations in the positioning of features. We could even manage an Azores Low/Euro High combination at some point which would be mighty toasty even if it waited until September.

The temperature maps show pretty much the entire land area of the Earth warmer than the LTA, with the negative anomalies largely situated over the oceans, most notably the North Atlantic. That area of anomalously cool waters leads to a slight signal for a cool sort of summer across the far NW of the UK, but elsewhere average to warm is indicated. Europe has notably strong agreement for anomalous warmth.

So overall, not a bad outlook at all if you like fine, settled weather in summer than occasionally turns hotter before a sometimes thundery breakdown.

In case you're wondering, the model goes on to develop a classic +ve NAO signal for the autumn, with low pressure tending to be NW of the UK and high pressure from the Azores to Europe. Still on the dry side in the south.

I'm looking forward to the change of season from spring to summer on Sunday. Just to illustrate the reality and power of thermal lag in maritime Britain, sitting as we do on the eastern edge of a vast ocean, at my location June average maximum is 18c whereas September's average maximum is 19c. June average minimum is 12c, whereas September average minimum is 13c. Quite amazing how the power of the sun is so mightily outweighed by sea temperatures and prevailing winds. Therefore in experiental and actual terms it is plain that in my coastal location on our Island home, and for many other places, September climatically is considerably more "summery" than June.

I think it is easy to tend to forget how much of a thermal lag there is here in Britain for all and more especially round the coasts. My expectations of warm sunny weather are always heavily influenced by the reality of our maritime climate and thermal lag. This week's weather can be seen as decent and probably drier and sunnier than average

I notice a few comments in the MO thread and I didn't want to take the MO thread off topic so will place a little rant here...

I find our climate interesting in the sense that it can change at any minute and we sometimes get a touch of everything BUT I am finding things annoying also and I did last year with regards planning the weekends, so far on a weekend have only had one BBQ because it was safe to plan one, On a weekend there always seems to be the threat of total cloud cover or a nippy NE'ly which out of the sun can feel chilly. I've not attempted a trip to the coast yet because of it.

...It's the weekdays that have been the best so far, typical when I'm constantly looking out of an office window ...that's the only thing that annoys me with our climate 

Really cannot complain so far. The only thing missing is proper heat. That doesn't look like materialising anytime soon, but up to know it's been mainly dry, pleasantly warm and plenty of sunshine since the beginning of May really. That looks like continuing. 

This month has felt a little like June 2001 to me... That Summer eventually became quite warm for July and August with fairly frequent plume's/thundery breakdowns.

That's the sort of pattern I was hinting at with my Summer forecast and maybe we're starting to see the models picking up on it?

Regarding the unremitting average crap that is the UK climate - the current output is the perfect example. So close to something newsworthy, yet might as well be happening the other side of the planet. 

So immigrants are dashing to get here because of our climate? What an odd comment.