Warmth is always around though for those in the South

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.gif

even into FI the warmth is not far away

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

Could be a very dry first half of July for many

The 18z op is utter gash. We lose the euro heat as it progresses, thereby losing our hot tap for future UK spraying 

The good thing is it'll probably be different at some stage tomorrow. 

00z GFS also crap, as are the ens from the 5th. Back to average and we lose our euro heat pool. 

When I say crap, I suppose in other years we might be happy with it, but to lose that heat to tap into is rrrrrrrubbish

The good news is that Greenland high which was helping to prolong the heat has disappeared which gives us a better chance of avoiding a drenching long term.

Very messy ECM this morning which has been all over the place recently . The heat never far from the South though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

With the strong heat in the continent it impossible for us to avoid it and be like 2003 type so we hope to get weekly to fortnightly hot spells which all models often underestimate the heat in the continent as they do in the winter times when the whole continent are frozen.  This hot spell won't be the last one and still have another 2 months to go where temps can reach 35C again or more possible.

They cannot handle the heat in the continent and often underestimate it that why they are all over the place like it did in winter.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A hot SE flow over the UK will become replaced by a cooler and fresher SW flow behind a weakening thundery trough crossing East over the UK later today and tonight

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a Northerly flowing Jet across the UK gradually veering to more of a SW to NE flow still in the vicinity of the UK next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a SE/NW spit over the next week or so with periods of very warm weather in the SE replaced on occasion by spells of thundery rain as incursions of cooler air repeatedly move down from the NW. A much more straightforward Summer changeable Atlantic pattern looks likely further to the NW with some rain at times but with drier and brighter spells too with this theme more extensively reaching the SE too by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run looks very simialr during the first week with the final hoorah of heat leaving the SE in about a weeks time as the changeable cooler air over the North and West reaches here too later. Then through the second week this run shows a resurgence of UK based High pressure with increasingly warm and sunny weather returning to all areas by the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show mixed messages ranging from a ridge towards Southern Britain from the SW with fine and dry conditions prevailing or more changeable Atlantic based weather on Westerly winds in association with low pressure to the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a SE/NW split developing from the weekend following a thundery trough North across the UK on Friday. The current hot weather looks like dissolving for many in preference of cooler SW winds though the SE looks like hanging on to some very warm conditions for some considerable time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air attemting to displace very warm and humid air across the UK over the coming 5 days. It succeeds briefly on the first attempt and perhaps more convincingly on the weekend attempt.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows very warm weather never far away from Southern Britain on this run with the North and West seeing fresher and cooler conditions. No widespread thundery activity is shown after this week but no doubt some would occur should temperatures remain high in the South. It's not until the end of the run that more unsettled and cooler air makes it all the way across the UK with rain at times from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too holds very warm air close to the South through the next week with further spells of sunshine and the occasional thundery outbreak. Further North and West the Atlantic SW'lies will maintain charge with fresh and bright conditions with just occasional rain..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today does show some success in getting the cooler air down to the South of Britain albeit next week before much success is achieved. So the South and East will see more warm and humid weather with the risk of thundery outbreaks before the cooler and more changeable conditions in the north and West from the weekend covers all of the UK by the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with a Low pressure up to the Northwest and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East though there are strong signals for a cool down even here in Week 2.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.6. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.7 pts with GFS at 82.0 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.9 over 45.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 25.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather continues to be held on a knife edge at the moment as the Atlantic cooler air remains locked in battle with hot continental air, common at this time of year. On most of this morning's output certainly as far as the North and West of the UK is concerned the battle is pretty weak as the Atlantic looks like being largely in control over the next few weeks with occasional rain and some brighter interludes in between. Further South and East the forecast is far less certain as the heat over Europe remains stubbornly persistent and wafts back across Southern and Eastern Britain at times over the next week only to be met with resistence by successive cold fronts moving up against this block and creating the risk of thundery downpours for these areas at times and fresher air to follow. With time on this morning's output it does appear that the Atlantic eventually wins through and gives rise to cooler and more changeable conditions over the second half of the period for all of the UK but there is some conflicting support for High pressure to re-establish with a return to fine and very warm weather UK wide later and with rather less humidity it may feel better. So all in all the models remain finely balanced and wouldnt be surprised to see the models to show further pushes of hot air to be shown to waft up from the SE over the coming days output well into next week. Whatever happens changes in the pattern look slow and undramatic but for thunder and lightning enthusiasts they could well be in for a treat in the coming days and further into the future if these push backs of heat from the SE are allowed to continue.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 2nd 2015

Not sure about the reload statement.

There's a 2-3 day hot blip between generally cooler weather, albeit I suspect the 'cooler' stuff would have the temps wobbling between 20-26c or so in the south so not cold here by any stretch. 

With HP often influencing the south it'd probably be a largely dry and very pleasant couple of weeks, with the odd wetter interlude, much more in the way of unsettled weather the further North and West you are.

As someone who strongly dislikes days like today it looks like quite a nice run really

So these lows end up acting like a giant cogwheel pumping the hot air from the Sahara and advecting it towards us.

Incredible.

What a stunning end to the ECM tonight similar to GFS as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

I'd prefer it to be centred about 750 miles further north - but i'll take it!

GFS continuing to look pretty rubbish in the mid-long term, in fact the ensembles continue to cool on a daily basis.

Meanwhile ECM looks much better and at odds with GFS which is a common theme!

The GFS though is warm for the SE and EA baring a couple of days. Temps often in the mid high 20s . In the 30s again by day 10.

The last couple of weeks have highlighted how pointless it is looking at the charts beyond a few days in this setup. In fact that's a decent general rule as well unless we are stuck under true zonality