Not quite as good as GFS but better than UKMO 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Yes, didn't get to see the models yesterday afternoon but read the downbeat posts on here, and thought Id have a look at the models this morning.  Apart from a distinctly cooler and windier interlude Wednesday and a bit either side, the overwhelming theme appears to be warm (especially towards the SE) with the continuation of the recent pattern somewhat locked in.  I note how +15 uppers are never far from Kent on the majority of the runs.

Fantastic CFS monthly this morning - Feb 2016 astonishing positive 500mb anomaly Greenland. UK 2m temps 4deg below normal.

Sorry, I'm not in the wrong thread am I? 😍

Longer term though ecm is not as good as GFS but still better than it was yesterday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

Still a million miles away from having any idea what's going to happen beyond midweek. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JULY 5TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An unstable SW flow covers the UK with showery troughs spreading NE through the day and more Atlantic fronts reaching the West tomorrow moving East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times especially in the North and West. Warm in the South at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing NE or East over the UK for the next few days before veering NW to SE midweek. Having ridged North over the UK later in the week the flow then settles further too the North on an easterly track between Scotland and Iceland. At the end of the period the flow breaks up and become ill defined.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today is best described as showing a very changeable period over the next few weeks with some more unsettled and cooler phases with rain at times mixed with some fine and warm periods under High pressure crossing from the SW or West on several occasions through the period. The most unsettled weather will be in the North and the warmest conditions will be in the very warm category at times in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run although slightly different in day to day events maintains a very similar and changeable picture. A lot of dry and occasionally very warm weather looks likely in the South but this will be interrupted by showery and perhaps thundery troughs displacing the warm conditions at times for something somewhat cooler with the process repeating again thereafter especially over the North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show a split with some showing a slack northerly with High pressure out in the Atlantic with some heavy showers floating South while the remainder maintain High pressure to the SW with some fine weather while a few bring Low pressure closer to the North with the westerly flow brisk and unstable across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cool phase of weather between Tuesday and Thursday with a mix of sunshine and showers, heavy and thundery by day. A ridge of High pressure is then shown to build on Thursday and Friday with warm and sunny weather for a time especially in the South before another thundery trough moves East into the warm air next weekend returning cooler air off the Atlantic once more behind it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of troughs crossing West to East over the UK this week with progressively cooler and breezy weather in two. Pressure builds through Thursday and Friday as a ridge crosses East with a warm front approaching the West of the UK from the West by the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today looks quite good for the South as a lot of warm continental air periodically wafts up across the UK but made temporary by troughs of potentially thundery Low pressure soon following each surge of warmth. The North lies in the more changeable and traditional Atlantic air for most of the period with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also follows a similar theme of warmer and drier weather late in the week following the early to midweek rain and showers. It too then brings a potentially thundery trough East to give some rain for all at the weekend before fine weather returns soon after.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows nothing really significantly different than the rest with very warm air over the continent tantalizingly close for all of the time and occasionally wafting up into Southern Britain only to be met by occasional opposition from Atlantic breezes and fronts with potential rain, thundery at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning looks like bringing the influence of Low pressure up to the North and NW of the UK rather closer in giving a greater risk of rain and showers across the UK with warmth still holding on in the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of South and East as best for warmth and occasional thundery rain while the North and West stand greatest risk of Atlantic borne rain at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.8 pts with GFS at 81.8 pts and UKMO at 81.8 pts too. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.7 over 46.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.2 pts to 26.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS We appear to have become in a set pattern across the UK for the coming two weeks. The basics of this is Low pressure to the North and NW far too close and very warm air locked in over Continental Europe and this pattern looks like persisting for some considerable time. Of course this doesn't mean that the same weather will occur over the UK day to day as the boundary zone between the heat of Europe and the cooler unstable Westerlies undulates across the UK for much of the period. So it looks like being cool and breezy for a time this week with some heavy showers before High pressure builds later in the week allowing some of that warmth over nearby Europe back up over the UK. It quickly becomes attacked by either thundery Low pressure from the South or West as the Atlantic winds regain some territory again next weekend. The longer range charts show little sign of altering this battle over Week 2 either with further pulses of warm and fine weather especially over the South before the next push of Atlantic air brings another threat of thundery rain through most parts. The one thing of importance to note as despite some negativity shown in my report this morning for much of the time in any one place the weather should not be that bad especially in the South with thundery rain possibly heavy though brief with a lot of fine weather in between. In the North things might be a little too much Atlantic based to share in much of the South's warmth but even up here some decent days are possible and indeed more than likely. Overall I think that temperatures will remain near average in the North after a cool blip in the middle of this week while the South sees the near average temperatures up to the middle of this week rise into the warm and very warm category again towards next weekend and probably again on occasion through Week 2.

The 6z offers up a continuation of the pattern with breakaway HP cells from the Azores transiting the UK pumping up heat from the impressive store to our south with temporary interruptions as the Atlantic reasserts itself every few days for around 24 hours.

This makes for a warmer and sunnier than average picture for the south and nearer to average conditions as you move NW

Perfect summary

Yes it a shame the heat in the continent are still there and due to the NW/SE split we only get limited warmer spells between 25-30C unless if NW joined then low to high 30's are likely to reach here once again later this month.  Little to no rain this week and a cool start before warming up again later on next week.

GFS @144 shows +15 850 line almost grazing S coast:

Much better long term from ECM tonight Infact superb summer run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Yes, a much better run from ECM tonight compared to the last few. Good to also see some indications from GFS now that the blocking currently in place over Greenland may soon start to weaken and allow the jet to return northwards.

I'm far from convinced. I think we are stuck in the pattern of occasional very brief waves of warmer temps for some time now. Not that it's a dreadful pattern for down here of course, but the potential is there for it to be so much better. 

I think we need one of two kinds of reset:

1. (as shown in some ensemble members) the depression slips away East and instead of another in its place, we get properly high pressure toppling in from the North West bringing us weather more like we saw in 2013: not record hot, but generally settled with the best conditions on the South coast


2. (as hinted at, but only that, in some others) the Greenland high dissipates, the depression re-orientates itself SW/NE, and the jet sends new depressions plunging Southwards towards the Azores, pumping up proper plumes in our direction.

Otherwise we have this pattern, which is OK if like me you live in London, but not much good to the rest of the country.

Generally we have the theme of a mid-Atlantic trough with areas of low pressure maturing there and then heading NE, keeping the UK in a changeable but often warm regime, sometimes very warm, as ridges run from the Azores to Europe and pay us a brief visit along the way.

The GFS 12z op then produces a dramatic retrogression of the pattern by around day 8 or 9 (W. Atlantic trough and mid-Atlantic high!) but this seems out of kilter with the background signals - or perhaps an overreaction to signs of reducing westerly momentum in the 8-14 day range.

I believe the ECM 12z op has a more reasonable solution, with each new Atlantic low tracking a little further west than the previous one - though in truth it rarely plays out as cleanly as this particular run shows.

Tue-Wed this coming week is a notable variation on the theme, caused by an Atlantic low coming in so fast that it catches up with the previous area of low pressure as it heads off to the NE. The result of their merger is a briefly quite large storm system drifting slowly E then NE through Scandinavia.

The next trough upstream looks to have enough momentum to drive a return of the westerlies during Thursday via a ridge from the Azores, but on the other hand, is likely to blow away the associated warm air after just a day or so.

So it seems we must look to the following week for the earliest real chance of seeing a more exciting setup emerge again. ECM reduced the momentum sufficiently on its 12z op run days 6-8 but the messy configuration of lows in the W. Atlantic ended up throwing across another strong ridge across from the Azores before the previous one had a chance to get up to much over Europe. I suspect this was a tropical system getting caught up in the westerlies and giving them a boost in the process. Not ideal - 2 or 3 days later you'd probably end up with a (perhaps very) warm but very muggy situation for the south in particular, with a lot of cloud around.

Important events in the tropics are giving the models a lot to work with at the moment so we can't place all that much faith in any particular output, however I think the general theme is there for the next week or so. At the same time, I get the feeling something significant could crop up with not a lot of notice for the week after this coming one... just a feeling though - not scientific.

Oh, I don't know - forecasts here showing highs within the 21-25C range (26C on one day), with only Wednesday next week looking particularly cool at 18C - so more or less what you would expect from the time of year. No complaints at all from me.

For central and eastern England only. Scotland and western parts cloudy and drizzly

Hi everyone. Here is my latest report on the 00z Model Runs from GFS, UKMO,GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday July 6th 2015.

"Sorry unable to provide links this morning."

The Latest Situation. A warm front is moving NE over the UK today followed by a complex cold front tonight. Tomorrow will see a showery and cooler WSW flow across the UK.

The 2 Week Forecast Headline Changeable with some rain at times but drier in the South and East with some warm spells.

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow mostly blowing much to far South in the next few weeks. It's flow remains across the Uk this week veering NW as a trough translates East. then after a brief shift North it returns South across the UK next week in association with Low pressure close to Scotland.

The GFS Operational Run shows the pattern unchanged from recent days again this morning with some warm and dry conditions across the South at times as extensions of the Azores High cross close to Southern England only to be followed by brief Atlantic incursions of cooler air with thundery rain or showers at the transition point. The North closest to Low pressure off the Atlantic maintains largely changeable conditions with rain at times and here it will remain relatively cooler than conditions elsewhere.

The GFS Control Run is very similar in it's first week or so with the best of warmth and dry weather across the South while the North sees more changeable conditions on a Westerly breeze. Then later in Week 2 a pattern change is shown as High pressure builds through the Atlantic switching winds to a cool NW or even Northerly with a mix of sunshine and showers for all.

The GFS Clusters for the 14 Day point are almost universal in suggesting that a NW flow will be affecting the UK in 14 days time with Low pressure in varying degrees of proximity to the UK but most members showing cooler air flooding the UK from the NW with occasional rain or showers.

UKMO this morning looks quite good as we move towards and over next wekend as it builds a strong ridge NE from the Azores across Southern Britain restricting influence of Atlantic winds and fronts to the NW whereas the South becomes largely fine, warm and sunny next weekend.

The Fax Charts endorse the raw data well today with a ccoler pahse of NW winds and showers midweek giving way to warmer conditions late in the week and into next weekend with High pressure lying close to the SE with a warm front travelling NE over the NW with a little rain and humidity rising everywhere.

GEM today keeps the current pattern going over it's 10 day span with High pressure always close to the SE or South and winds blowing from a West or SW point across the North and NW with occasional rain. A lot of rather warm and humid weather looks likely on this run across the South with just a very occasional interruption of rain on troughs crossing from the West, all this after a brief cooler and showery blip in this coming midweek period.

NAVGEM maintains the status quo of current weather pattern with Westerly winds and occasional troughs delivering showers and some rain at times with some fine and warmer interludes in the South especially later in the period.

ECM today sits on the changeable fence with occasional troughs crossing East in the otherwise Westerly wind delivering occasional rain in the South and more frequently in the North. This run does take a more GFS Control Run stance of switching winds to a cooler NW or North flow late in the run as pressure builds North through the Atlantic.

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows slack Westerly winds and occasional rain across the UK with temperatures bordering above average especially in the South.

The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 82.1 and UKMO at 81.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 48.8 pts over GFS's 46.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 30.3 pts to 26.9 pts from GFS.

My Thoughts Once again today there seems little difference in the overall patterning of conditions over and around the British Isles over the coming weeks. The main thrust of the Jet Stream remains too far South to allow continental heat to move back over the UK in any meaningful fashion and while conditions will be far from bad in any one place any significant warmth and sunshine still looks rather brief and fleeting as Atlantic fronts move East to dislodge it quite quickly after it's arrival. As is usual in a Westerly flow South will always be best and there could be quite a lot of pleasant weather for much of the time but areas further North will have to pick and choose the best days as here Atlantic winds will bring more frequent bands of rain and showers at times. There is a something of a shift in some of the longer term output to build pressure across the Atlantic through the second week which would result in a shift of winds to a cooler NW or Northerly quarter for all. This is highlighted well in this morning's GFS Clusters, the GFS Control Run and the ECM operational today and while yet it is still too far out to call we need to keep an eye on this trend in future runs. In the meantime it's business as usual with the North/South divide remaining in place for some while yet and while it may not be high summer in the true sense of the word conditions could be far worse and I'm sure there will be some decent fine weather to be had for all regions in the coming two weeks but more especially in the South.

I can hardly believe the amount of westerly momentum in this morning's ECM run out to day 8... totally bonkers.

That momentum then falls off a cliff just as LP makes it east of the UK - tragic timing if you're seeking warm conditions for the middle of July. Worryingly, GFS arrives in a similar place despite dropping the momentum a bit sooner having already had it at lower levels than ECM during the preceding few days.

We can only hope that having such poor luck with the timing at 8+ days range will translate to better luck after the adjustments made nearer to the time.

We could also do with the Thu-Fri ridge putting up more of a fight than ECM shows. It topples faster than a TDF cyclist hitting a brick in the road. Which hopefully we won't see in both senses of the phrase!

UKMO and GEM do show a possible way to escape the westerly push to some extent at least.

This requires a LP leaving Canada in four days time to catch up with the one in the mid-Atlantic and merge with it, pulling that one back west or at least stalling it for a while.

UKMO and GEM are notably faster with the Canadian LP than ECM and GFS. Could this day 4 situation be a critical point for the July CET?

GFS 6Z: This is a bit of an IMBY post, but it doesn't look like it's going to get too hot, nor not too cold and there'll be plenty of sunny spells but also with perhaps the occasional bouts of rainfall hopefully to keep the lawn ticking over.

My idea of the perfect Goldilocks type summer.

The first step to any substantial improvement over the UK as a whole will be getting rid of that pesky Greenland High. Nothing consistent as yet, but there have been a few hints in some GFS runs over the past couple of days of pressure eventually lowering somewhat in that region as we go further into July and last night's ECM 12z showed this to a degree as well. Any general improvement in the model runs that takes place will have to start from somewhere; we just have to hope that the likes of this evening's GFS op run and last night's ECM don't turn out to be red herrings.