HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JULY 4TH 2015.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough will move away North this morning followed by a fresher SW airflow across the UK tonight and tomorrow.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather but occasional rain at times especially in the NW. Chance of thundery showers at times too towards the SE. Generally rather warm.
THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing NE or East over the UK for much of the coming period. It veers to a West to East flow at times before becoming weak and broken for a time in the middle of the period before strengthening again in Week 2
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a generally NW/SE split across the UK for a lot of the time where the North and West continue to be the most changeable with some rain or showers at times whereas the South and East see the best of any dry and brighter weather with some warm sunshine at times. The period towards the end of next week though looks dry and fine for many as a ridge of High pressure becomes more dominant across the UK for a time.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar route through Week 1 culminating in the ridge of High pressure next weekend. It then sends an unpleasant and unseasonal Low pressure across the UK in the second week with rain and strong winds for all before a more pleasant High pressure based summery phase moves in from the SW to end the run.
THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters still support High pressure out to the SW in two weeks time with a NW flow across the UK with varying degrees of unsettledness and fine weather in equal measure across the UK.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
UKMO UKMO today shows a cool Westerly flow across the UK towards the middle of next week with showers in places particularly in the North. High pressure then looks like building into the UK from the West by the second half of the week with drier and warmer conditions as a result.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air on a SW breeze through the early days of next week with troughs crossing from the West threatening some outbreaks of more persistent rain at times. The SE looks likely to stay the driest with warm weather still not far away to the SE.
http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.
GEM GEM today shows a cool and breezy week next week with some rain or showers on a blustery West then NW wind. A ridge of High pressure then builds in next weekend with some warmer drier conditions for a time which don't old for long before more Low pressure edges in from off the Atlantic across the UK.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM after a changeable phase early next week brings High pressure back up from the SW across the South of the UK later next week. This culminates in a re-run of what's just occurred in that a thundery trough moves NE across the UK next weekend and displaces the warmth somewhat.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.
ECM ECM today has a slightly changeable look to it with the theme of a changeable and cooler start to the week with rain or showers at times. giving way to a fine and warmer period as a ridge of High pressure extends down from Iceland. It then shows another push of Atlantic energy possibly dislodging the warmer and dry conditions developed again towards the end of the run with further rain at times chiefly to the North and West
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif
ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to look like maintaining warm air not far from the South but with Low pressure close to the North suggesting a West or SW flow with some rain chiefly in the North and West.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of South and East as best for the weather while the North and West stand greatest risk of rain at times.
31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 84.4 pts with GFS at 81.8 pts and UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.1 over 45.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 25.8 pts.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
MY THOUGHTS A slight step back is my opinion of the models today as I feel that the Atlantic is holding more influence across the UK than was shown yesterday. I still don't feel we are in for a particularly bad spell of weather but rather an indifferent one where the UK lies between the fine summery conditions held to the South and SE of us over Europe while the Low pressure areas and fronts lie across Northern and Western areas in particular with more regularity than I would like. The suggestion from this would be that there will be a lot of NW/SE split in the weather over the coming two weeks where SE is always best. There would however, be a period towards next weekend when fine and dry conditions would be more universal across the UK with some warm sunshine for all as a ridge from the Iceland area links with High pressure to the South for a time. Then through Week 2 a return to similar set-up to what we have currently looks likely with fronts invading the UK on occasion freshening things up and giving some more showery rain between the brighter periods. So all in all a rather changeable pattern is the message from me this morning but this does include a lot of dry and warm weather in the South and East at times whereas the North and West are most likely to see the coolest and most showery conditions especially early and in the middle of next week.
Next update from 08:00 Sunday July 5th 2015
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset