Good signs as last time it was messy before they started bringing serious heat here.  I am sure the last Wed heat is NOT the the last one and we not done yet. 

I think they are messy due to faulty HP cell sticking over Greenland without any movement and rest of the same latitude zone as Greenland had LP around even Russia look very unsettled as the Jet stream is well north of us so Greenland should be under LP cells.

The messiness is purely down to how complicated the synoptic pattern is. Personally, I think if you want to know what the end of next week is going to be like - come back next Wednesday. 

Yes and do you agreed that the serious heat last Wed is not the last one and we will get it again?  It only 4th of July and 35-36C can be reach again until early September.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JULY 4TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough will move away North this morning followed by a fresher SW airflow across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and fine weather but occasional rain at times especially in the NW. Chance of thundery showers at times too towards the SE. Generally rather warm.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing NE or East over the UK for much of the coming period. It veers to a West to East flow at times before becoming weak and broken for a time in the middle of the period before strengthening again in Week 2

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a generally NW/SE split across the UK for a lot of the time where the North and West continue to be the most changeable with some rain or showers at times whereas the South and East see the best of any dry and brighter weather with some warm sunshine at times. The period towards the end of next week though looks dry and fine for many as a ridge of High pressure becomes more dominant across the UK for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows a similar route through Week 1 culminating in the ridge of High pressure next weekend. It then sends an unpleasant and unseasonal Low pressure across the UK in the second week with rain and strong winds for all before a more pleasant High pressure based summery phase moves in from the SW to end the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters still support High pressure out to the SW in two weeks time with a NW flow across the UK with varying degrees of unsettledness and fine weather in equal measure across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cool Westerly flow across the UK towards the middle of next week with showers in places particularly in the North. High pressure then looks like building into the UK from the West by the second half of the week with drier and warmer conditions as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air on a SW breeze through the early days of next week with troughs crossing from the West threatening some outbreaks of more persistent rain at times. The SE looks likely to stay the driest with warm weather still not far away to the SE.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a cool and breezy week next week with some rain or showers on a blustery West then NW wind. A ridge of High pressure then builds in next weekend with some warmer drier conditions for a time which don't old for long before more Low pressure edges in from off the Atlantic across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM after a changeable phase early next week brings High pressure back up from the SW across the South of the UK later next week. This culminates in a re-run of what's just occurred in that a thundery trough moves NE across the UK next weekend and displaces the warmth somewhat.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today has a slightly changeable look to it with the theme of a changeable and cooler start to the week with rain or showers at times. giving way to a fine and warmer period as a ridge of High pressure extends down from Iceland. It then shows another push of Atlantic energy possibly dislodging the warmer and dry conditions developed again towards the end of the run with further rain at times chiefly to the North and West

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to look like maintaining warm air not far from the South but with Low pressure close to the North suggesting a West or SW flow with some rain chiefly in the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today looks in favour of South and East as best for the weather while the North and West stand greatest risk of rain at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.4 pts with GFS at 81.8 pts and UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.1 over 45.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 25.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS A slight step back is my opinion of the models today as I feel that the Atlantic is holding more influence across the UK than was shown yesterday. I still don't feel we are in for a particularly bad spell of weather but rather an indifferent one where the UK lies between the fine summery conditions held to the South and SE of us over Europe while the Low pressure areas and fronts lie across Northern and Western areas in particular with more regularity than I would like. The suggestion from this would be that there will be a lot of NW/SE split in the weather over the coming two weeks where SE is always best. There would however, be a period towards next weekend when fine and dry conditions would be more universal across the UK with some warm sunshine for all as a ridge from the Iceland area links with High pressure to the South for a time. Then through Week 2 a return to similar set-up to what we have currently looks likely with fronts invading the UK on occasion freshening things up and giving some more showery rain between the brighter periods. So all in all a rather changeable pattern is the message from me this morning but this does include a lot of dry and warm weather in the South and East at times whereas the North and West are most likely to see the coolest and most showery conditions especially early and in the middle of next week.

Next update from 08:00 Sunday July 5th 2015

ECM ensembles are abit uninspiring this morning not bad just not great. A bit of a NW - SE split. We would be very unlucky though not to get another heatwave soon as the heat is so close .

I agree with that, Matty.

Next week is going to turn cooler and eventually more unsettled for all of us; there seems to be pretty good agreement between GFS, ECM and UKMO as far as that's concerned. Beyond that though is totally up in the air right now. It could be that the high shown to come in from the west at the end of next week turn out to be a brief affair, but there again it may prove to be more substantial that GFS and ECM are currently indicating. Let's hope it does.

IIRC it took the models quite a few days a week or so ago to firm up on developments for the very warm/hot spell we've had during the week just gone. A straightforward west-east atlantic dominated pattern this is not.

I have a technical query re. the fax charts posted by Gibby. What is the significance of the cold front with the white or unfilled triangles? How does this differ from a normal cold front?

It's an upper cold front:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/symbols

Azores ridging better on the 06z so the heat may return, but personally I'm looking forward to the cooler temperatures

UKMO not dissimilar to NAVGEM:

It basically means that it will most likely translate into a band of showers with little or no change of air mass at the surface. 

Good old NAVGEM! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1802.html

Its looking pretty changeable at times with some heavy, showery rain, possibly thundery for the south with the heat close by.

Based on the ECM anyway.

Next Friday could be quite hot for the South. It's a one day wonder though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

As was mentioned by some in here this morning, I think that to an extent, the models are all over the shop at the moment. There seems to be little run-to-run consistency and even the much trusted ECM seems to be producing different outcomes from one op run to the next.

Personally, I think that the end of next week is as far as we can reliably look ahead at this moment in time.

I'm not sure I agree. I think they've been as consistent as they ever are and the verification stats bear this out. It's just they are consistently showing a transient pattern over the UK with ridges and fronts, an irritating Greenland high, and a very persistent low over Scandinavia. But this kind of pattern means the day to day conditions in the UK vary quite a lot because we are on the edge of 2 air masses. Sadly within the stasis the general trend run on run seems to be for lower temperatures, lower pressure and more rain.

Yes the jet seems reluctant to takes its text book summer excursion north of the UK and we are victims of the ridge/trough pattern for the foreseeable. There is the usual uncertainty is the timing of the passage of the pattern, but the the ridges seem to get weaker and the troughs dig further south with each model run.

I guess we can only hope that the MetO's recent medium range updates are not proved to be off the mark, as they seem to have sounded reasonably promising for later in July, especially the further SE one goes. If the likes of the ECM 12z verified as shown, things would deteriorate somewhat even in the SE with much lower temperatures than recently and more by way of rainfall also. The GFS 12z followed a very similar theme.

One thing I learned though about the models a long time ago is that sometimes, just like the weather itself, the models can be rather unpredictable. I mentioned earlier how the models, until about 10 days ago, were generally indicating that the Spanish plume we've had during the past week would only likely affect parts of SE England before atlantic low pressure moved back in, but they gradually delayed the return of the westerly pattern until this weekend and allowed more of the UK to be covered by the plume, with even NW Scotland getting into the high 20sC on Wednesday. I think that what we have is one of those situations where there is a possibility, even a small one, of notable changes occurring in the output , and possibly at quite short notice.

Text book return of the westerlies - part 2 maybe?

The second wave of the 'June Monsoon' arrives between late June and early July normally. 

Much improved GFS and GEM this morning. GFS is good pretty from 96h - 384.

ukmo not so good still breaks down at 144