I don't want to get carried away just yet. Looks good - by my goodness we've had almost 3 weeks of downright grot now.

Mean pressure patten and anomaly over the 10 day period on this morning's ECM. If anything, positive anomalies to the N/NW are more enhanced than recently. This run is a particularly wet for western Scotland & Norn Iron (even more so for here ) but temps a little closer to normal than what they have been over the last 7 months.

Good to hear someone acknowledge the long period of below average temperature in Ireland / N.Ireland. 6 of the 7 months this year have had below average temperatures.  To be fair though - only month last year had below average temperatures (August) so I guess its natures' way of redressing the balance.  I think the low SST's to the west are playing a bigger part in overall temperature levels in Ireland than anywhere else in the British Isles. One things for sure though, I've only felt 'warm' on about half a dozen days this summer and having to put the heat on for 45 mins every evening to 'remove the chill' is not my idea of summer.

And back to the output...

Here's the GFS latest prognostications for Monday:

In the mean time some dangerous levels of heat looks like developing over SW France, Spain, Western Mediterranean, Majorca, Ibiza..places like that next week. It wouldn't take too much for that heat to advect northwards if small variations in output allow for a less progressive Atlantic. 

Unlikely, especially for the north and west..but perfectly plausible in the longer term for the South and East. 

I think you are spot on there. Here locally, my nearest official station is running almost 2.0c below normal for July, so it will finish the 7th consecutive cooler than average month in my neck of the woods, and the 9th below average month in the last 12 months. (Aug & Nov '14).  July's finishing mean temp (currently 13.2c) likely to come in cooler than that of August 2014, which was an unusually cool month in itself.

A few illicit responses in the current context would probably consist of swearwords from our Northern brethren.

'Elicit' maybe?

And the plume for Monday is still there with +15 into Kent and +10 widely across the eastern half, all the way up to Aberdeenshire (or at least near Inverness)

ECM 96:

GFS at the same time still forecasting up to 28C in the east.

Last night's weather for the week ahead showed a Tuesday chart with a small depression threatening to develop as a Channel Low, and with a heavy blob of rain associated. Don't see it on any of the main charts this morning.

Interestingly, the low and thundery showers programmed for Mon/Tue were traced back to a region of humidity and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico, leaving there about now. There have been plenty of examples of modified hurricanes crossing the Atlantic to upset our weather, but I can't remember an example with such modest beginnings.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JULY 31ST 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure covers Southern Britain while a trough of Low pressure in association with a Low to the NW of Scotland will move across Northern areas later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a continuation of the flow troughed over the near Atlantic and returning over the UK in a NE'ly direction. This pattern is maintained for the next week before the flow becomes more West to East aligned over the Atlantic and across the UK through the second week, still well South of it's normal position for this time of year.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today has a message of SE is best over the coming week with a SW flow across the UK between deep Low pressure to the NW and High to the SE. The flow will carry frequent bands of rain and showers to the North and West with more occasional bursts in the South and East where it will be quite warm at times. Through Week 2 a return to cooler air for all is shown as winds veer West and source from a more Northerly latitude over the Atlantic which could bring rain and showers for all at times then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run has a very similar theme running throughout it's duration with the same trends as shown by the operational with just small synoptic differences overall day to day.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days doogedly show a theme that has been shown by these for some time now in that in 14 days time the UK will most likely lie under a NW or West flow between High pressure to the SW and Low pressure to the North or NE. The likely result would be average to below average temperatures at times along with some rain or showers, more focused towards the North than elsewhere.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a deep Low up to the NW of the UK controlling the weather from the late weekend and well into next week. The resultant and sometimes strong SW flow would bring rain at times to all but more so towards the NW. It could be rather warm in the SE for a time with a trend to cool these higher temperatures down a little from midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follow the raw data closely and indicate the deepening Low to the North-West eearly next week with a SW flow and fronts crossing East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM looks rather different longer term. In the first 5-7 days the story is as the rest with Low pressure out to the NW with some rain and showers for all fuelled by smaller disturbances crossing East in the flow across the UK. Later in the run one such disturbance forms it's own Low pressure close to the South and SE drawing cool cyclonic winds and rain for all with a cool North wind towards the West to end the run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the main stream models in maintaining Low pressure up to the NW with rain and showers at times for many, least in the SE where some fine and warmer interludes are likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows a variation on a well supported theme in that Westerly winds will remain dominant across the UK under Low pressure to the North and NW and areas of High pressure to the SE, South or SW, these never making enough inroads into the UK to guarantee prolonged dry weather and warmth.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows a Westerly flow across the Atlantic and the UK from a depression held up to the NW. High pressure out to the SW will likely keep the NW/SE divide in the weather going well into August

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models remain rather mixed in detail but common ground does indicate that there is still little prospect of High pressure making any real impact on the UK weather as a whole within the next two weeks

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.8 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.5 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.4 pts followed by UKMO at 82.5 and GFS at 82.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.0 pts over GFS's 52.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.9 pts to 32.4 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS At the expense of sounding like a broken record the models throw very little change in the overall patterning of things as far as the UK goes. Broadly we still have a Jet Stream flow that is well South across the Atlantic and likely to remain so for some considerable time yet. This is not all bad news especially for the SE of the UK as on the Eastern side of the troughed flow across the Eastern Atlantic we have a NE moving Jet Stream over the NW and this allows the potential for some warm conditions to be drawn up across the UK in the coming 5 days or so. However, this doesn't look like lasting long after that as the longer projections turns the flow more West to East across the South of the UK again returning cooler air to the SE as well in Week 2. In other parameters of weather all this means a continuation of changeable conditions as Low pressure lies up to the NW or North for much of the period with rain and showers at times and this may well reach the SE at times, perhaps thundery in places. In between times in the next week the SE may turn out pretty good with a lot of dry and warm weather about between any showers but as we look to the second week it looks likely that a more West or even NW flow may return with it's attendant mix of rain and showers too with any warm temperatures left in the SE then easing back again. Even then the South may not see too much rain but may not be enough in itself to make sunworshippers happy due to the lack of any guaranteed and extensive high Summer temperatures through the period. Nevertheless we have what we have and I'm sure many of us will fine some opportnity to enjoy the best of what's on offer over the period and while it may not be like high Summer for much of the time it could be a whole lot worse for many especially in the South.

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Aug 1st 2015

ECM goes for another glancing blow for a plume here @168:

Before the Azores high attempts to ridge in temporarily I suspect from 192:

00Z longer range ENS (NAEFS, GFS, GEM, GFS Bias corrected) maintain a really poor outlook as low pressure dominates.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

A poor outlook from MVH (Matt).

The poor outlook in the north continues but for the south it's looking like a fairly settled and at times a very warm week with only brief flirtations of cooler and fresher influences from the atlantic at times. 

Never has the SE/NW divide been so defined and persistent in Summer IMO.

Even further south and the heat becomes fierce. I'm in Ibiza from Monday for two weeks. You won't here me complaining about chilly temperatures for a while. 

PS..If you think we have a NW/SE divide, try living in Spain ! 

Waste of valuable time for a proper heat than to stay longer than few hours.  Not interested with forthcoming modern summer quickie heat.   

In my experience a quickie is better than nothing, sometimes it's better. 

More better if this fall in a weekend and prior to a quickie heat we need a week or 2 of settled weather to do lot of other things outside before the quickie heat come in and sit back and watch it speeding pass by.  

Agree..weekend quickies are better. 

The current recovery to warmth for some is more of a slow burner with each day notching up a degree or so with national maxes for today and thence the next 3 days thereafter likely to be 22; 24; 27; 29.

Edit - just noticed GFS forecasting 30c in Kent on Thursday 6th (over Gusty's house by the looks of it) as another plume brushes past.  I cant keep up!  Worth watching to see if it seeps further N and W or retreats S and E

Very warm ECM this morning for the South and EA. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm482.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

The warmest GFS/ECM pair of op runs for quite some time this morning, just to unsettle those who've predicted a cool month - myself included 

Certainly some unusually strong westerlies appearing in the Atlantic at times in the mid-term... tying in with the models recently making a shift toward an MJO event peaking in phase 7 rather than the more desirable phase 6 - just look how the composites for past events in the two phases compare:

Phase 6 promotes blocking to the northeast with LP digging to the southwest - warm or even hot.

Phase 7 supports strong westerlies, very changeable for the UK. With an extra kick from the N. Atlantic SST gradients it could be very stormy for the time of year.

Except... this is assuming that the El Nino event works with the convective dynamics to produce a strong MJO event, such as UKMO and JMA are currently predicting:

...but look at ECM, stalling when just into phase 7 and then getting lost in no mans land, and GFS wandering off to toward the Indian Ocean (which is more like La Nina behaviour so seems dodgy to me). Then you have GEM (the CANM model on the chart) which has a strong event all the way over in phase 5, which promotes a Euro High and low pressure west of Ibeira - potentially a toasty outcome for the UK.

So really there's a lot of uncertainty at the moment, and I reckon the dampening of the MJO event by GFS and ECM has translated into the warmer runs this morning, as the jet doesn't force its way as far toward Europe, allowing high pressure to our south to have a bit more influence at times. We even see signs that the jet stream may take a short breather at some point before mid-month, raising the potential for a trough to become cut-off somewhere or other. Given how close UKMO is to phase 6, there remains the possibility of that trough ending up stuck to our W or SW.

Overall, the outlook remains poorest for the NW, best for the SE, but the chances of some more notable warmth extending a bit further NW at times have improved this morning IMO. My gut instinct is now pointing toward a CET close to the LTA (16.4*C), and that's still assuming that the MJO is destined to end up in phase 7 at some point within the next few weeks, due to the influence of El Nino, bringing westerlies from an unusually cool N. Atlantic.

Without that, it could even turn out warmer than average this month 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn34817.gif

JJF by Gooner.

Looks a bit tricky toward the end of the working week as we sit just beyond the main thrust of the Atlantic jet, with a load of heat across NW Europe attempting to sneak in from the southeast as a weak area of low pressure (or two) drifts about in our vicinity. 

Potential for a 'hot snap' - with any luck more successful than Monday's now looks to be (a faster shunting east of the heat means mid-20's for easternmost reaches are the best I can see, nothing to shout about I'm afraid).

Looking further afield, the GFS 06z was the first op run to produce a signal for a warmer than average month in recent days, but the 12z has reverted back to suggesting a little below average, despite some notably warm days in the mix.

ECM is unclear going forward. The ridge over Europe looks like it wants to put up a fight against the Atlantic after all, but just how successful will it be? Anyone's guess - but it'd help if the models could resolve their disagreement over the behaviour of the MJO next week.

Well if the models have got a good handle on things, it looks as though come the end of next week, we may finally be saying goodbye to the Greenland High that seems to have been there for an eternity. Pressure over that region on the GFS, UKMO and ECM runs tonight looks like dropping much lower than it has done at any time since late June. That's hasn't been the sole cause of the poor weather northern areas have had for the past 6 weeks or so, but it's been a major player in it.

If we can finally see the back of it and hopefully the jet eventually returns to a more northerly path, there is a chance, just a chance that things may eventually change for the better up here. As long as the Greenland block remains in situ, there is no chance of any change away from what we've seen since late June. We live in hope anyway!

Excellent post there David. This is why you chaps up north have had to all intents and purposes a bad summer. Then us guys down south got a taste of what you have had giving us the worst final 2 weeks of July since the grotty summers of 2012 or 2008 or worse.

Lets hope August and September deliver something decent.