Not exactly inspiring outlook is it? This month has been utter rubbish here for the following reasons:

1). Very, very cool. Only 3 days with a max of over 20*c, the lowest number for July since 1988. Average max only 18.5*c; 3.4*c below the LTA.
2). A large number of grey, overcast days.
3). A persistent and downright cold at times moderate to fresh northwesterly wind. Any variation in wind direction coincided with heavy rain.
4). Exceptionally wet. Rainfall currently stands at 127.7 mms, well over twice the LTA.
5). A large number of wet days despite the fact that this part of the world is normally sheltered in a northwesterly.

I'm afraid this July will have to join the highly forgettable list which includes 1988, 2002 and 2007 - 2012 inclusive.

lol I'd have to disagree, I think the warmer it gets the more flys, moths, spiders, and other insects there are. Increased bug population indoors or out is a good signal it's warmer.

Interesting that UKMO 12z want to move that low early next week directly over the UK, a bit like the one that crossed over the country between Sunday just passed and yesterday. I'm hoping that GFS 12z is nearer the mark in keeping it out to the west while gradually moving it northwards. Hopefully ECM will be more along the lines of GFS than UKMO this evening.

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Bloody hell what appalling output, this is Summer FFS. Lots of friends camping this week- we are off to join them next week and it looks horrific.
You couldn't make it up- those wanting a cold winter wait for months for Northern blocking- those if us wanting a warm Summer wait for months for it to bugger off. Bloody obnoxious

Anyhow, back to the models ...

Here is the ECM for Monday, showing +10 uppers from the north of Scotland to the south coast with the core of the heat across the SE.

And below that an ECM FI (192) chart showing how the heat could return to from Yorkshire to Dorset.

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The indoor fly count seems about average but the spider count is very high for the time of year around here. 

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A good ECM for the SE ending with a lovely day 10 chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

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Thankfully, ECM 12z has followed GFS in keeping the low next week to the west of the UK.

Still looks rather changeable thereafter but, like this morning's run, it does show pressure falling over Greenland by 240hrs. At least GFS and ECM seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet wrt that at the moment. That in itself would at least be a first step towards hopefully seeing the jet eventually return to a more northerly path later in August.

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Plenty of flies around here Brian not sure about the spider content  dear me the outlook must be bad

 

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Plenty of male spiders in the house for the last month - I think they have come inside to the air-con for a cool down. What surprises me, considering the balmy nights, hardly any moths.

Great write up on the SST angle, James. What's your latest thoughts on MJO amplification? After looking at todays ensembles and ops, not looking so likely now IMO.

Does anybody know how you can get the forecasted ozone layers?

Though nothing unique for so late in the year, this is rather rare.

 

A forecasted UV index 8 currently expected on Friday. No doubt it will change from run to run, but I still find it interesting.

The GFS throws out quite a warm run within the high res section.  The key factor in the period 168-200 hours will be as to how strongly and how far west the Russo-Scandi High can build.  Currently in the output its too far east towards Russia and the western and northern parts are plagued again by fronts and cloud whilst the S and E are warmer and drier.

Meanwhile the warm weekend I was posting about several days ago is now looking likely, Im pleased to say, with Monday looking hot even, and I note with interest the rain seems to be held up slightly on this GFS run meaning warmer and drier for longer for many, should it actually verify.

 

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Thanks, glad you enjoyed it 

 

Looking at the MJO projections, the ensembles have held steady as far as I can see, apart from GEFS which have adjusted toward the other output - now closer to a new amplification event unfolding in the Pacific. I believe this makes a lot of sense given the established El Nino type atmospheric/ocean coupling.

The Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) is reflecting the changes afoot and the El Nino type setup as it rises through phase 5-6 (good for the mean trough backing west relative to the UK, which most models at least have a go at... UKMO a notable exception) and then loops around while remaining in High AAM (atmospheric angular momentum) territory. Unfortunately it's the time spent in phase 7 and near phase 8 that (as far as I understand) threatens to give the westerlies an added boost by mid-August. The nearer to phase 6 we can stay, the better.

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This is getting beyond ridiculous now. Just what does it take to get even average conditions here?

This is the temperature forecast for Monday, just rubbing salt in the wounds...

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015073000/108-778UK.GIF?30-0 

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And it's so good here in the SE half of Europe are trying to get over to enjoy our climate ...look on the bright side, at least you don't have to put up with operation stack 

 

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Here is the GFS for Monday 1300hrs, 850s (+17 850s across east Kent and widely above 10 and in the SE +15); and surface temperatures pushing 28c which we know from the record breaking heat at the start of the month tend to under do things, so 30c is not unattainable on this output somewhere like Cambridge

 

 

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OT but this year is the first in the last 3 that I have not chosen (by coincidence) to use the M20/Eurotunnel for holiday purposes! 

Back on topic and I think that while the overall pattern for the coming week looks less cold than it has been there is precious little for those in the north to get excited about. Towards the SE things look pretty decent at times. So still a North/South split and better than it was but much room for improvement.

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Is that a little spot at 9°C in inland Angus?

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Probably

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Which in July would be as remarkable (if not more so) than the high 20s in the SE. So in terms of weather extremes and outlook it is well worth mentioning.

It also highlights the ongoing N/S split which is becoming the most marked thing of this summer as well as the huge temperature range for the month. Don't get me wrong, Monday especially looks great in the SE and if I was there I would be delighted but sadly it is one day for one part of the UK which is slim pickings whatever way you look at it. As I said the picture is less cold and possibly less unsettled than recently but at a glance it would barely be worth a second look in terms of "summer potential".

It does seem like an improving picture but it would need to improve a lot more, for longer and over a wider area to shout "summer!".

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I see.  I trust you will appreciate that my posts are not intended to illicit  or any other responses.  They are there to give the facts as the models are churning out the data.  My liking for sunny bright warm weather in summer has been well sated this summer which is turning out far better than I dared hope for.  It is a pity that Scotland in particular has suffered this summer but our precarious position as a small island on the western edge of a vast ocean extending way down south westwards always makes it very unusual for all parts of the UK to enjoy good weather simultaneously. 

Back to the models and it appears ECM is after a repeat of Monday in 10 days time:

 

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Looks like a changeable picture today despite a one day warm snap only.

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WI, I am not disagreeing with any of the charts' output or what you are saying, I'm just trying to put it into context of the wider picture (time wise as well as in terms of nationwide conditions). I love heat and sunshine as much as the next person (as long as that next person isn't one of our crazy "loving wintry conditions in midsummer" types!"

The problem with the 2 brief warm (possibly even hot) blips in the charts is that they are simply that, blips. Plumes of very warm air dragged up in association with a Low to our west which in turn also introduces weather fronts to many parts. What we really need and have been missing most of the summer is "proper" anticyclonic conditions and not heat that is intense for some but also blink and you'll miss it and may not even reaching many parts.

Please do keep highlighting the type of charts that you are posting as they do show great conditions for some (albeit possibly briefly) but don't worry when I point out that the same time not all will be included or that they are not sustained. It has just been that kind of summer so far!

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The models (ECM and GFS at least), do seem to be reasonably consistent now in finally removing the blocking over Greenland later next week. They have hinted at this at times in the past month, but no with the consistency they are now showing. As I said before, getting rid of that block over Greenland isn't the solution in itself, but it would sure be a help in terms of northern parts hopefully getting something better at some point further down the line.

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