Indeed Gavin.

Our schools start back on 17th/18th August, and it would be good if the kids could get even half a dozen decent days of weather here before they go back; they've been short-changed pretty badly throughout their holiday so far.

I'm not saying this will happen by any means, but to me it would be a major irony if the models do have a change of heart for things later this month and start to indicate a change to something more generally settled. Especially since the MetO early last week ditched their more settled outlook for August they had spoken of in their 16-30 day updates consistently since just before mid-July!

Apart from the risk of some thundery showers clipping the far SE it's looking like an increasingly dry picture down here in the southern third of the country. Nearer normal rain amounts further north and west with ample orographic rainfall over western highlands.

A very August 2009 month shaping up.

Indeed Steve, its got that feeling about it.  August 2009 was the best summer month down here (warm, very sunny, dry) and might aptly be described as a "barbeque August".  Meanwhile the output continues to show the now obligatory NW/SE split, and the sunshine and warmth continue to build here while it is, I gather, a very different picture elsewhere. Fascinating weather this summer, I still cant quite get my head around having my station record max and record minima  for July in the same year!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY AUG 2ND 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A warm Southerly flow will cover the UK today with a warm front moving north across Northern areas followed by a cold front tonight which in turn will be followed by a fresher SW airflow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a continuation of the flow moving NE across the Uk for the next week or so . It turns to a more direct West to East flow still across the UK next week while at the end of the period the flow becomes cyclonic around the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a classic NW to SE split in the weather for the most part. The North and West of the UK will remain under the influence of a generally SW flow controlled by Low pressure to the NW giving rain at times. The South and East will be more under the influence of higher pressure to the SE and South and this will at times suck up some warm continental air. Howver, some rain from troughs moving across from the West is possible here too though more of the time will be dry rather than wet. The end of the run sees cooler and more cyclonic conditions for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run remains very similar to it's operational brother in that a NW/SE split remains in the weather with some fine and warm conditions in the SE at times and only very occasional rain. The North and West will always be windier and more changeable with more frequent outbreaks of rain or showers and a cooler trend for the SE too at the end of the period as cooler west or NW winds filter down.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters are not available at time of publish.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a deep Low up to the NW of the UK for the early days of this week with strong winds and rain or showers at times especially towards the North and West. Later in the week slacker winds develop but with Low pressure remaining to the west of the UK some showers can still be expected with the best conditions remaining in the SE where it could be rather warm at first.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show changeable conditions through the week as various troughs cross the UK especially at first and again later in the week most prolific towards the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning continues to highlight the stark differences between the NW of the UK to the SE as the SE sees a lot of warm weather with just very occasional outbreaks of rain while the NW sees a strong influence from Low pressure to the NW with rain and showers at times and as a result much cooler conditions than further South

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM does indicate a more coherent and perhaps thundery Low pressure cell crossing NE over the UK late in the week or early in the weekend before a pattern reset to which we have all become accustomed takes shape later with the SE becoming dry and bright while SW winds and rain at times occur elsewhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM completes the set this morning showing only day to day differences from the rest of the output which remains within the parameters of the same theme as the rest with a West or SW flow across the UK, quite strong in the NW at times where there will be the most chance of rain at times while drier and warmer conditions at times is most likely in the SE where a few thundery outbreaks are possible late on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  looks all too familiar this morning with a trough from Low pressure near Iceland down across the UK bringing rain at times in a Westerly flow to the North and West while the drier of any conditions will be found towards Southern and SE Britain where it will be a little warmer than elsewhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS I see no real pattern changes to the existing theme of the weather over the next few weeks

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.0 pts followed by UKMO at 82.7 and GFS at 82.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.6 pts to 32.4 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS For those observers looking for a major pattern change within the output this morning will find it is like looking for a needle in a haystack as the generally synoptic pattern we have become so accustomed too remains largely unchanged yet again today. Putting the meat on the bones shows that the UK is still largely pestered by a Jet Stream which remains doggedly too far South to allow a full scale push of the very warm and summery continental weather to make inroads into the UK other than the SE in fleeting glances. To the North of the Jet flow which blows somewhere over the UK for some considerable time yet lies Low pressure, usually up to the NW and sending troughs of Low pressure NE and East over the UK with rain at times. Not much of this reaches the SE where conditions for a lot of the time could be rather warm and humid before the inevitable trough comes in from the West to cool and freshen things up before the pattern resets. The North and West will see little chance of warm continental air as the SW flow off the Atlantic continuously brings spells of rain and showers and blustery cool winds. So I'm afraid it's more of the same over the coming couple of week with the North and West of Britain seeing an in-balance in the share of good weather that the South and East continue to receive with rain at times the order of the day and temperatures average at best. However, not many in the SE will end up grumbling as within the reliable time-frame the weather here looks reasonable and at times good with temperatures comfortably warm with just shorter cooler phases when a little rain or thundery shower is possible..

Next update from 09:00 Monday Aug 3rd 2015

^^^^^^

Thanks Gibby. Great analysis as always!

I think GFS looks quite good this morning (for the south) but ECM and GEM generally more unsettled for next week.

As THE DOC has noted, "funny old Summer"

The best spell of the summer could be creeping up on the south east this week.

We can but hope that the recent GFS runs are proved right- let's hope so!

IIRC, it was the first model, or at least one of them first, to pick up on the rise in pressure over Greenland in the second half of June which has led to the recent pattern we've had. At the same time, ECM was still going for a more settled outlook for a while but it then jumped ship and picked up the same trend as GFS was showing at the time. Let's hope that GFS is on the money again this time like it was in late June.

If the ecm is right looks more like late Summer early Autumn after the brief warm spell in the south/east

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015080212/ECM0-96.GIF?02-0  

All the heat bottled up way to the south. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015080212/ECH0-192.GIF?02-0 

I love the way Cumbria gets it's own patch of sub 4c uppers on the first chart! Lol

I only hope these low Atlantic SSTs last through next winter as any north westerly outbreaks could be epic.

A small consolation however for a very dismal summer.

Andy

Both GFS and MEt O favouring a resurgence of the Azores high into the South. 

Here's the UKMO AT 144:

You have nothing to worry about. Sure as eggs are eggs the jetstream will surge north as soon as summer is over.

Yes hints of the jet starting to migrate further north at long last.....

Yes, the period 10-17 August seems to offer the best prospects for the north in some time.  One to watch.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY AUG 3RD 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep depression lies to the West of Scotland with a SW flow across the UK, strong in the NW later. A thundery trough will lie close to the SE at times tonight and tomorrow with an Atlantic front moving into the West and North as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with rain at times especially over the North and West. Some lengthy dry and at times warmer conditions across Southern and Eastern Britain perhaps extending North later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed over the eastern Atlantic before turning NE across the UK. This pattern then shifts east later in the week with an eastward moving Jet stream across northern Britain by next weekend. Through the second week the trend for the flow to weaken and become less defined is indicated.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows some changes in it's patterning this morning but not until the second week. As it stands the North/South split in conditions remains through this first week with SW winds and rain at times, chiefly in the North and West. Very warm air will continue to flirt with the SE at times through this period perhaps with a thundery shower. Then through the second week a ridge from the SW stretches across the UK on a more northerly axis than of late eventually allowing all areas to become largely dry and warm with some sunshine as High pressure gradually shifts to the NE of the UK. Pressure will become lower to the South of the UK later with some thundery showers reaching Southern parts late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a similar theme with the first week as the North/South split in the weather remains intact. Then it too shows a ridge from High pressure to the SW building across the UK through the start of Week 2 with a better and warm spell. for all. The difference being on this run is that greater pressure is put on the ridge from the Atlantic and nudges it South enough to bring the North back into more changeable Atlantic driven weather again later in the second week while the South remains largely dry, bright and warm.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days from now closely support the Control Run with a 55% share of members suggesting a ridge from High pressure out to the SW lying across Southern Britain at that point with the North and NW still keeping an Atlantic influence going. The remaining 45% show more Atlantic influence to all areas with rain at times for all while a very small proportion >10% have High pressure across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cool end to the week under a Westerly flow. A trough crossing East at that time will likely bring a spell of rain or showers to all before pressure builds from the SW across Southern areas next weekend with fine and increasingly warm conditions down here while the North stays cooler and breezy with rain at times in the NW as Atlantic westerlies regain supremacy in these areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex synoptics in  a generally West or SW flow. Pressure is never shown to be very low but with a lot of weak troughing within the flow all areas are indicated to have at least a little rain at times between drier and brighter spells.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a different path towards a better interlude of weather as the West to SW flow through this week gradually backs to the SE through next weekend as pressure builds from the SE and then East. Warm conditions would likely spread North to many areas for a time though with pressure High to the East it shows the UK open to attack from the West and SW by Low pressure giving a spell of thundery rain and showers as the Atlantic winds try to regain control across the UK by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks a lot like UKMO this morning at it's Day 6 point with a strong ridge building across Southern Britain and into Denmark. So dry and warm in the South next weekend with some rain still in SW winds for the North. By the end of the run it looks like a GEM solution might be evolving from this run as pressure begins to fall to the West and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning is poor if it's a break from this pattern your after as it has virtually nothing of the rise in pressure across the South next weekend mostly due to the stagnating trough that moves through the UK later in the week. It's stagnation instantly attracts more Low pressure down from the NW maintaining rather cool and unsettled weather with rain and showers for all which only slowly lifts out of Southern Britain towards the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night hasn't changed much for days it seems and although there are ebbs and flows from how much the Low pressure to the NW affects the UK as a whole it is always a pattern that indicates that SE is best for dry and warmth and NW is most likely to see rain and cooler conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are a few shreds of evidence of a possible change this morning as several models show High pressure ridging over the South from the weekend and then transiting to the East. However, there remains scepticism from other models including ECM on this theory so pinning hopes on any one evolutionary trend this morning past a week remains futile.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.6 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.9 pts followed by GFS at 83.1 and UKMO at 82.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.0 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS There are some small signs of change within the outputs today but it all hinges on events towards the end of this week which may break us out of this synoptic lock down we seem to have had for so long now. For this week there is very little change with Low pressure up to the NW controlling the weather and keeping the warmest and driest conditions towards the SE while most places see at least some rain within drier spells. Things will probably cool down for a time in the SE too late this week as winds turn more westerly and it's from this point that hints of change are shown today. It looks like a ridge will push NE from High pressure to the SW at the weekend which should bring much of England and Wales into fine and increasingly warm weather. The chances for Scotland to join in on this are greatly reduced I'm afraid but there is some suggestion, notably from GFS with some support from GEM that all areas could share in this warmth as the ridge develops a High cell over the UK and eventually to the East and NE. If this was so all areas would become warm in a SE feed of air from Europe and while a thundery breakdown from this pattern is also shown it would at least break us out of this monotonous pattern of a NW/SE split we have seen for so long. The fly in the ointment for me this morning is the ECM model whose verification stats at this range are best and it shows no such build of pressure next week instead throwing more Low pressure down over the UK with rain at times in cool air out to day 10 when it belatedly shows some build of pressure towards the South. So in summary there is some hope for the North this morning while the South continue to enjoy the best weather over the UK in the next week or so. However, before I believe that the North will benefit from any rise of pressure from the SW I would like to see ECM on board, supported by a better 10 day mean chart later. So while improvements and changes are suggested this morning there remains no guarantee of yet but if ECM moves towards some of the other output in future runs for events across the UK beyond this week then we may be in business for a better second half of August.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Aug 4th 2015

No doubt!  Although it is the SST profile (as well as the current evidence) which is causing me to worry. Your option is probably the more likely one!

Overall the picture does look better for August than it has done for much of July even if it only "average" at best for some northern parts.

For once the N. Atlantic SST gradient may be doing us a favour this coming weekend and into next week, as the enhanced jet drives an unusually vigorous Atlantic storm (autumnal in nature) which happens to track well N of the UK on this occasion - something that was always statistically possible last month but we never got lucky.

ECM does the best job this evening, despite having been the most reluctant over the past four op runs:

That's tropical maritime air at its most sultry - but it'd only turn out seriously warm if the sun was able to break through, which when you're pulling air from such a moist part of the Atlantic is a long way from given.

Typically, easternmost locations fare best in this setup, where I wouldn't rule out the high 20's in the southeast if ECM verified.

GFS isn't as effective with the draw of TM air, due to the Atlantic storm not being as vigorous plus the jet buckling north a bit more in the mid-Atlantic; this develops more of a separate HP cell to our west that rolls east, rather than an extension of the Azores High to the northeast such as ECM shows.

Of course, having HP rolling east like that tends to draw heat up from the southeast with time, which we see in a big way for the SE thanks to all that excess heat over NW Europe. Interesting to see that ECM also heads in that sort of direction a few days later in time.

It appears that my technique of going for a cooler than average CET has done the trick with the models 

On a more serious note, I based that on the idea that when the heat departs, we'll see a large cooling off of conditions as the pendulum swings the other way, much like it did last month. This still looks plausible, but the recent trend to upgrade the warmer period has my expectations shifting toward a near average CET, perhaps even a nudge above 

Met O consistent in its signal for high pressure later:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015080312/ECH0-240.GIF?03-0 

Is it normal to see cold 850's over Greenland/North pole  at this time of year?

Closer to home, same as

Never ending gloom and cloud for Aberdeen, Eternal sunshine and heat for London.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015080312/ECH0-168.GIF?03-0  

Yes, you'll quite often start seeing "phantom" -10C 850s over Greenland by mid-August. By the end of the month you'll usually see -15s (sometimes -20s) and the 510 line will reappear.

Met O 144 shows the jet edging north, and remains consistent. 

In around 8 days time the GFS suggests the high has migrated.  The North may experience some fine warm weather:

 Much better from both can we get the trough to lift out just a little more towards the pole