The following shows a wet Saturday afternoon & evening for around 75% of England, 90% of Scotland & 50% of Wales.

I'm really not being IMBYist. Surely we haven't reached the stage where we must caveat any 'the majority area of the UK is wet' posts with a 'but the SE is dry'...

It's way in far FI I know, but three successive GFS op runs today have shown a strong build of HP over the UK as we reach the end of August/start of September. Normally I wouldn't pay any attention to charts for that far out no matter how good they look, but what is interesting is that the MetO's 6-15 day forecast mentioned a possibility of a more generally settled spell starting around that time.

I seem to recall it was around that time that last September's warm & settled spell began, coming as it did after a cooler and more unsettled August.

Is this summers jetstream on a similar track to winter Dec 2013 - early 2014?

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY AUG 19TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move NE across all areas over the next 24-48hrs in a mild and muggy SW flow. The troughs will linger across the far NE tomorrow..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining somewhat mixed with a lot of dry weather for all but with occasional rain too at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving SW to NE across Northern Britain in the coming few days. It hen backs South to North by the weekend and then cyclonic around Southern Britain late in the weekend before settling West to east across the UK for much of the rest of the period, gradually weakening somewhat.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today dare I ay it has an early Autumn complexion about it as for most of it's period it illustrates SW winds across the UK with changeable periods of weather ranging from some dry and bright conditions in the SE where it might still feel reasonably warm at times to unsettled and very windy conditions with gales and spells of rain, occasionally everywhere but most frequently over Northern and Western areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today though a little more kind for the South at times also has a look of early Autumn about it with eyes always looking to the West for the next spell of cloud, wind and rain but some good drier spells in the South and SE at times where humidity could be high at times and the longest drier spells look likely. The early Autumn look of things is then exacerbated late in the period by an ex tropical storm crossing the UK from the SW with heavy rain and severe gales shown for a time.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show an emphasis towards Low pressure near Northern Britain with a Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times. Some members equally show a ridge over the South giving some lengthy dry spells here.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure in control of the weather usually up to the NW but occasionally closer in with the trend for winds to increase and the influence of rain and showers to extend to all areas by the end of the weekend and start to next week and not just the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a very complex series of troughs hung up over the UK for the coming three days with rain at times for many before a cold front staggers East at the weekend and introduces fresher conditions ahead of more disturbed weather poised in the Eastern Atlantic to begin next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows changeable weather in SW winds with troughs decelerating as they move East across the UK in the coming few days. The SE may see the best of the weather still this side of next week before a spell of more changeable and sometimes wet and breezy weather for all looks likely. Towards the end of next week some improvements are shown again especially for the East and South but the Day 10 chart still manages to show a trough up across the UK squeezed between two higher pressure areas to the West and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks quite unsettled this morning with Low pressure never far away to the West and NW throughout. Then early next week it too shows a vigorous little Low whistling NE across the South with heavy rain and strong winds for a time before the most unsettled conditions return to the North and West later next week but never leaves the South and East immune.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a strong SW flow developing over the period with some quieter days in the South for a short period at the weekend. All areas will see some rain and showers in the coming days with the best of any dry and warmer weather in the SE. Then next week sees all areas become equally unsettled with periods of rain and strong winds alternating with showers and temperatures close to average right out to Day 10 when some improvements look imminent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows Low pressure up to the NW with a SW flow likely over the UK with some rain at times for all but still chiefly towards Northern and Western parts with some warmth and dry weather at times in the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are coming together in showing a rather turbulent spell of weather next week with the potential for heavy rain and local gales at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 94.6pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.8 pts followed by UKMO at 85.0 and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.1 pts over GFS's 55.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.7 pts to 36.6 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Not much cheer from the models this morning if it's fine and nationwide settled weather your after for the rest of the Summer as from this morning's output it looks very unlikely to happen. After a period between now and the weekend of SW winds and occasional rain for most the gradient of pressure involving Low pressure to the NW and High to the South and SE is going to steepen early next week as Low pressure takes a swipe at more Southern areas too as well as the North with attendant heavy rain and potential gales racing in off the Atlantic. After some relaxation of this feature last night a fair amount of output shows this vigorous Low this morning and while it's position and intensity remains uncertain at best it looks like all areas will see some very unsettled weather early next week with some heavy rain and fresh winds with temperatures closer to average. Most output then shows a mixture of evolutions ranging from a return to a NW/SE split in the weather again or a maintained sequence of Low pressure off the Atlantic crossing the North with fronts and further wind and rain continuing to plague the UK all the way to the end of August. I do feel though that taking specific details for weather in any one place beyond a weeks time is futile at the moment but the general pattern seems to be that with a Jet flow that looks like continuing to be well South of it's normal location over the Eastern Atlantic and over the UK for some considerable portion of the next two weeks the most likely scenario will be to maintain an Atlantic driven pattern with rain at times and temperatures near average and occasionally a bit above in the SE.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Aug 20th 2015

Thank you Martin.   Very Autumnal but expected.

Thanks Martin, as always 

Looks like that seemingly inevitable upgrading of the jet stream could be causing trouble again next week if ECM (below) is along the right lines. The selected charts show the first and last of three disturbances racing through the UK, these interacting with increasingly hot air over NW Europe which suggests some  high moisture levels - posing a severe weather threat in the form of large rainfall totals.

At this stage, there's still hope for at least some of us based on GFS (below), which still has high pressure close enough to bring drier, warmer (in fact very warm for a few days) conditions to the SE, but western parts are slammed with heavy rain events.

...but it feels like another losing battle to be honest.

Not that the previous battle has even been sorted out yet - the models still have varying solutions for the weekend (GFS left, ECM right):

GFS has frontal rain ahead of a fairly intense (but no longer deepening) low which reaches central parts by around 3pm Sunday, cutting short the day's action for the Air Show and Supercar Showdown events.

ECM has that low arriving at a similar time to GFS (despite being less intense), but a weak disturbance to the SE of the UK in the chart shown causes trouble, bringing a thunderstorm risk (or at least heavy showers) before it merges with the low to the SW, the resultant system moving right over the UK by midnight Monday.

Given that ECM and UKMO barely developed the Atlantic low at all last night, and that UKMO continues to behave in that way this morning, confidence remains about as low as it could possibly be for Sunday. The output has firmed up on bringing a taste of high summer to the eastern half of England on Saturday, though. Remarkably, GFS has temps pushing 30*C to the north and northeast of London. 

Why is everyone beefing about the climate on the model output discussion forum? It is a good climate for living in and agriculture . I dont understand the high expectation of a British summer . This is how it always was. Yes it has been particularly bad for the northern half this year, but nothing exceptional in the long term.   If you dont like it take your hat and clear off 

I've moved a bunch over to the 'mid-summer perceptions thread', to be honest at most times of the year it would have been cleared away sooner. Late summer has that effect on moderators, even if the weather isn't acting quite right 

On to the models, and when seeking clarity on Sunday's weather, one is faced with this from the 12z efforts:

In order of appearance, that's GFS swinging a low in from the southwest with temps peaking near 20*C and rain reaching central parts by 6pm (a little later than previous runs - a good trend), ECM taking that low well SW of the UK with warm air stagnated over the eastern half of England and the whole of Scotland (very warm or hot - perhaps as high as 30*C in the SE - but with a risk of showers and/or thunderstorms later in the day), UKMO making little of the low to the SW and developing one on the western edge of the warm airmass instead, and GEM following a route quite similar to GFS but considerably slower with the approach of the low from the SW.

The consensus? There is no consensus! 

Instead we have two main outcomes: either it's a bit on the cool side with increasing cloud frontal rain, or it's warm to hot with the threat of thunderstorms. The evening runs have shifted a bit more in favour of the second outcome (GEM has the very warm air in roughly the same place as ECM, and UKMO's low would likely have some wrapped up in its circulation).

Despite the health risk, I'd prefer the toasty outcome for the Super Car Showdown. ECM has the best case scenario, as pressure takes the longest to fall, raising the chances of escaping the downpours until later in the day.

All of this follows what now looks very likely to be a hot Saturday for the SE, and at least in the very warm category (mid-20's +) for at least half of England, with a good shot at getting all parts the country in on the act, maybe even the eastern reaches of Wales. Scotland... to be honest you'd best hope that ECM or GEM are close to the mark as they bring you that warm air for Sunday - though it can't be assumed to come with a lot of sunshine, admittedly! 

Saturday evening and into the night may bring thunderstorms, these looking quite concentrated in their distribution, most likely across central parts based on recent guidance - but there's a lot of room for that to change, with each model differing in the detail.

What's happened to ECM tonight? It hasn't updated on WZ yet.

The grib files on the ECM servers aren't available this evening. I've em'd them about it. Sites using other sources for the ECM data may have the 12z run.

Are people still bothering to look? Gave up long ago. Just use the Meto text forecasts now, and they're often wrong beyond 48 hours 

Only when I'm bored out of my mind.

ECM very kindly just ran it for me now so it's available on the TWO Chart viewer

I am more into window watching now as they all been wrong from models to media forecasts full time. I am sure that 3rd world countries would make accurate forecasts from their older reliable computer systems than our supercomputer that give out complicated, wrong models and forecasts.  I notice the wrongness had been increased much further since the introduction of super computers in.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY AUG 20TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A large depression South of Iceland will dominate the Eastern Atlantic and the UK with a warm and moist SW flow across all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining somewhat mixed with a lot of dry weather for all but with occasional rain too at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving SW to NE across Northern Britain in the coming few days. It then backs South to North by the weekend and then cyclonic around Southern Britain late in the weekend before settling West to East or SW to NE across the UK for much of the rest of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is once again a very changeable selection of charts indicating much as the Summer so far in that all areas will be at risk of some rain or showers at times with warm air flirting with the South and SE at times. A Low pressure complex developing near the UK later this weekend together with high humidity is shown to enhance the prospect of heavy rain for all before fresher Westerly winds return from next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today is largely similar in profile through Week 1 with an unsettled and occasionally wet prospect for a time late this weekend. Then Westerly winds are shown for next week with warm air again flirting with the SE at times, interrupted by further weakening troughs crossing over all areas later. At the end of the run pressure is shown to build across the UK bringing fine and settled weather to many areas to end the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning still show a bias towards Westerly winds over the UK most likely in two weeks with some members showing the South in particular under influence of High pressure. Confidence is quite low on any one evolution with a maximum of 35% indicated by a theme of slack pressure likely to be lying across the UK at that point.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today looks very unsettled as we look towards the latter half of the weekend and start to next week as Low pressure is shown to be centred over or to the West and North of the UK with rain and showers for all. It will be humid and warm in the SE at first but cooler air is shown to extend to many parts early next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a very complex series of troughs hung up over the UK for the coming three days strengthening with time as very warm and humid air to the East of the troughs extend across the UK. The resuktant rain and drizzle of the next 24-48hr will become much more intense and thundery across the weekend before the fronts clear East by Monday with fresher but still unsettled air across the UK from then on into the new working week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows cyclonic conditions across the UK throughout it's run this morning. There will be Low pressure over or eventually close to Northern Britain with thundery rain or showers gradually becoming replaced by cooler Atlantic winds and rain at times next week. Towards the end of the run improvements are shown to edge towards the South as High pressure slowly builds from there.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks quite unsettled this morning too with Low pressure migrating slowly North across the UK late in the weekend and next week with thundery rain or showers in warm and humid air at the weekend turning into more traditional cooler Atlantic mix of rain and showers and sunny spells thereafter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning looks unsettled too with rain at times, some very heavy and thundery over the weekend as Low pressure forming to the SW engages some very warm and humid air across the UK. Then through next week the Low complex moves North across the UK with the weather becoming generally unsettled, cooler and breezy with rain at times under less humid Westerly winds. Hints of a pressure rise from the South or West are hinted at right at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening maintains it's long lasting theme of Low pressure up to the NW and winds from a SW source across the UK with some rain or showers at times and warm air flirting with the South and East at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models stil show a lot of cyclonic weather across the UK next week with hints of some improvements in the second week of the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.7 pts followed by UKMO at 85.3 and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.3 pts over GFS's 56.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 41.0 pts to 38.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The spell of indifferent Summer weather where all areas see rain at times is going to continue for some considerable while yet and indeed from this morning's output it looks like some areas could get jolly wet before things start to improve a bit towards the end of the month. What we have currently is a moist and mild SW flow across the UK with some warm sunshine but coastal and hill fog and drizzly showers in the West. This continues for a day or so as pressure gently falls down to the SW. As a result of this winds back SE and very warm or hot air is wafted North into the UK at the weekend. With high humidity and instability aloft as pressure falls the ingredients are there for a period of rain and potential thunderstorms later in the weekend. Then next week we witness the slow progress of this Low pressure complex starting down to the SW to migrate towards the North of the UK opening the door for cooler, fresher Atlantic air from the West to flood across the UK. Low pressure remains the dominant feature up to the NW and North throughout next week though so further rain at times can be expected. Then as we move into Week 2 the jury appears to be out on specific detail but it does look like that a trend towards something drier, brighter and perhaps warmer is likely to return to at least the South of the UK at the end of the month. While this is a welcome sight with a bank holiday weekend looming it comes with the caveat that it is a long way out in weather forecasting terms and there is a lot of weather to get through first before we get there and plenty of time for the models to have a rethink on these events. The one thing that has receded this morning is the prospect of high winds as the rapidly deepening Low shown in the early part of next week has largely been removed now in preference of a still potent Low but with less pressure gradient around it. So all in all it's more of the same and I am still unable to report on the prospect of a sustained very warm spell again today though I will hang my hopes on the GFS Control Runs Week 2 suggestions here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0

as that would ensure something much nicer than anything else I can see in the models today.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Aug 21st 2015

I think that's a unfair injustice to the progress that has been made in weather forecasting in which is a relatively new Science over the last 100 years or so. Yes the models do get it wrong but you have to remember we are an island surrounded by a 4000 ml stretch of Ocean to our West, a temperate climate at 50 deg North of the Equator and constantly moving Jet stream aloft. It's no wonder that forecasting is wrong at times, even at short range. If we were in a Central Continental Climate where changes are slow and better predicted such as Africa and even closer to home in the Med then getting forecasting wrong for any one region would be more inexcusable but unfortunately we don't. Just look at the variety of weather in recent days and what's to come over the next few, that's temperate climate at it's best.

As I mentioned a few days ago while Verification Statistics for the models at short range (i.e 1-3 days) remains more than 90% for all three of the big models and that only declines to 40% for day 10... hardly bad stats for the climate we're in.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

I am completely fair about this and it shown the true colour last Friday when they went for high 20's and on that day they still issuing such temps when outside was in mid to high teens temps with rain all day.

There was less wrong in the past and not that frequent as today stats.  Supercomputer are meant to deal with this island climate but still haven't so and best to look outside now and observe it, common sense and plan your day.  

Saturday now looks nailed on as a total washout for the western half of the UK. The trough disruption from a resilient Scandinavian High is but a memory as a complex group of lows piles the rain in. Sunday's a washout for central (then central & eastern parts as the day moves on) too.

Bank holiday weekend looks at this stage to be a write-off as well.

I despise our climate

It seem on 06z had delayed the timing of the rain to arrive here on Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning so if this kept downgrading it and you may escape if this continue to push back west from the strong Scandi HP.