The strong El Nino / mild UK winter link, yes that does seem to have happened in the past e.g. 1997/98, but this coming El Nino is forecast to be a central based or Modoki El Nino. Just wondering if the strong El Ninos in the past that have caused a mild winter have all been 'regular' Eastern based El Ninos.

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I did wonder that when the MetO talked of the El Niño cold winter link in the spring. Looking at the stats El Niño conditions tend to bring mild winters but clearly the MetO think other factors are in the play.

I think the low SST ( if maintained) will be crucial in encouraging Atlantic blocking highs and a buckled jet. Pure speculation of course but the low SSTs can only help.

Andy

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Not sure it's a done deal for a central based El Niño - from where we are now it could just as easily be east based. It will come down to the extent to which westerly wind bursts can progress the warming toward Central America.


Meanwhile, shorter term but by no means near term, there are signs that we may be living dangerously next weekend for those seeking a dry, fine couple of days... But on the flip side, most models suggest above average temperatures.

The reason is LP either digging down to our west in the Atlantic or developing to our SW.

This morning GFS was alone in having the latter but this evening has seen ECM come on board:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/192_mslp850.png?cb=466 

...in fact the LP moves NW over the following two days, which is highly unusual. Not far enough away to avoid a significant thunderstorm risk though.

Glad to see the GFS 12z keep the rain away from most parts until the end of Sunday - I have outdoor plans 😉

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Off-topic, but wasn't there an El Nino event going on at the end of 2010 when we endured our freezer of a December? Maybe it was the previous winter but I'm fairly sure there was an El Nino at some point that year.

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Quite a good 00z runs and showing some warm to hot weather by Sunday then cool down and followed by warming to hot BH weekend nationwide so it seem few days running now they been showing a decent BH.  When was the last time we had a 30C heat in BH? Must be way back in 1989 when it was 90F.  What ever this morning runs need to see more days of constant same set-up before we confirm it will come off so for now hope it stay showing hot spell next weekend, let alone BH for now.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY AUG 16TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An area of slack winds will continue to affect all of the UK for the next 24-48hrs at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining somewhat mixed with a lot of dry weather for all but with occasional rain too at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm of the flow moving SE over the Atlantic to the Pyrenees with a returning arm North over the North Sea. The Spanish end of the flow breaks up in a few days while the flow is steered more NE over Scotland as the process of developing a sharp trough in the flow just to the West of the UK is shown late next week and through Week 2. Thereafter, the forecast becomes complex with the flow appearing to break up and become light around the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure to the NE for some considerable time this morning. There will be a deepening depression to the NW later this week with rain at times from midweek, first in the North and West then elsewhere too as the Low moves South close to the UK and down to the South with time. This focuses rain and showers more towards the South briefly before pressure builds again with warm and dry weather returning at least to the South while the North and West return to cloudier weather with occasional rain and winds from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS Control Run today also shows High pressure to the NE with slack winds over the UK slowly giving way to Westerlies with rain at times from midweek as Low pressure to the NW gradually extends influence to all areas with time. A changeable period for all is shown then with rain at times but some dry and fine weather too especially late in the period when High pressure builds across the UK from the SW with warm and fine conditions for most to end the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a good set this morning very much biased towards High pressure close to the South of the UK in 14 days with fine weather for many with any influence of low pressure affecting the UK from the Atlantic coming in at less than 20% of members today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure from mid Atlantic gradually becoming influential across the UK from midweek. The North and West will see most effects from this with rain and showers while effects for the South and East will be more minimal with High pressure closer by to the South and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the slack pressure gradients across the UK continuing for a while yet before Low pressure developing up to the NW pushes a series of weakening fronts East with some rain from midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today has an air of Autumn about it as it replaces the benign weather pattern at the moment for something much more mobile thereafter, The bening weather will last until midweek for many when Low pressure up to the NW deepens and pushes troughs across the UK followed by other with some strong winds too later as deepening Low pressure moves NE over the UK. Some recovery of pressure is close at hand to the SE early next week but SW winds still blowing for most will continue to bring rain at times in association with deep Atlantic Low pressure close to the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows slack synopics too to begin this week with fine and benign conditions for many. A trough crossing east midweek in assoc iation with a slowly expanding and deepening Low close to the NW becomes the dominant pressure system over the UK from then as it extends down across the UK with rain and showers for all at times a week from now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a lot of slack pressure about early this week as no one pressure system has overall control over the UK weather. So bright weather with a few showers is likely. From midweek a steepening of the pressure gradient is shown as Low pressure moves in closer to the NW with SW winds ushering some rain across the UK though precious little in the SE. The trend is then for lower pressure under Westerly winds with some showery rain at times to see us through next weekend and the start of the following week with temperatures remaining near to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening likes the idea of Low pressure to lie to the NW of the UK with a SW or West flow threatening rain at times to the UK especially but by no means exclusively towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are trending towards another more unsettled interlude later this week with the longer term models from GFS hinting at High pressure again in two weeks, strongly supported by it's ensembles.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.5pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.9 pts followed by UKMO at 84.8 and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.8 pts over GFS's 54.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.7 pts to 35.6 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Another morning and another set of mixed messages from the outputs. The first week does show some support for a theme of slack pressure gradients over the coming days slowly giving way to more changeable weather under the influence of a deepening Low up to the NW. Much output has this gradually deepening and extending reach to the SE too where complications from the South might develop something more thundery for a time late in the week ahead of the Atlantic SW feed. Thereafter, it looks like that a period of changeable weather is likely under a SW or West flow with some rain at times for all and temperatures suppressed as a result. Then later in the period GFS does show us a way towards fine and settled conditions for many as High pressure builds across the UK towards the Bank Holiday weekend. However, GEM has gone off on excursion to early Autumn this morning as deepening Atlantic Low pressure has the UK in it's sights in a week or so. ECM on the other hand goes to halfway house between GFS and GEM with the 10 day point illustrating a deep mid Atlantic Low throwing some influence across the UK coupled with a 10 Day mean chart which shows pressure below 1015mbs countrywide. From all this we have to rely on GFS having a long term handle that it's late rise of pressure is right and that the Bank Holiday looks set fair and warm for many. I must add it is disappointing that the whole of this Summer has seen the UK plagued by a Jet flow too far South and cool uppers hardly ever able to leave the UK as result except for the odd day or so. Whereas Europe as a whole has seen a splendid Summer with almost continuous high temperatures and away from the usual thunderstorms not much in the way of rain. While this Summer hasn't delivered that much rain for many here either especially in the South and East temperatures and sunshine amounts have been disappointingly suppressed. Unfortunately this morning's output does little to change this theme as the pattern looks all too familiar this morning to that we have seen virtually all Summer across and around the UK.

Next update from 09:00 Monday Aug 17th 2015

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Thanks Martin.
In other words our generally disappointing summer continues. Who knows,the words Indian Summer may become a reality for 2015 ? Time will tell...

This is absolutely nailed on. You watch 

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I've nicknamed this summer as the "unfair summer".

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Life is never fair.

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Yep.  Definitely this summer had gone down with poor summers of 2007-2012 and even those poor summers had some proper heatwaves that lasted between few days to 1 week while this year none existed.

Models at FI now showing September and by next week we would see a better picture how September shaping up.  Hope the north will benefit well in September too. 

Thank You Martin. Some sun for the end of the month as  well as end of summer...As we know it....to be called.....

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I get a feeling that it could turn very wet in the south next weekend/early following week, while the north stay's mostly dry and fairly warm?... 

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I know - You know what I mean though :-)

The continent has had all the prolonged hot weather and we've been left with the gunk for most of the summer.

 

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A La Nina was in full force by Dec '10, though there was a strong El Nino in place during Winter 2009-2010.

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We're hosting a BBQ for the eldest daughter next Saturday, followed the day after by an afternoon party for the youngest, so I've had a keen run-to-run eye of output.

What seems nailed on is the development of a Scandy High later this coming week - but there's much doubt as to how much influence it will have over the UK, especially with that big low moving in as the weekend approaches. GFS has flitted between it having a strong influence and only a fleeting one; UKMO & ECM both tend toward the 'little influence' and charge the low through.

Latest GFS has the trough disrupting, splitting, with one low heading SE'wards & the other well to the north of us. This is not far from being very good. The problem is that the southern low refuses to move into the slack air over the Med (anyone explain why?) and instead just meanders around western Biscay, spinning fronts northwards into SW Britain. Decent weather for most, though - and warmer temps (although it doesn't look hot)

I so want the GFS 12h to be right, but know that the UKMO & ECM will be correct.

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Correct. Basic rule of thumb in the worst climate on the planet is to scan all models and file the worst one, because that's the one that will varify most of the time. 

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Thanks for refreshing my memory CP.

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Overall, the models have this evening shifted in favour of a cut off low developing SW or S of the UK and subsequentally being held in check by a Scandi High advancing boldly west...

Question is, will the low be far enough S or SW to allow dry continetal air from the E to suppress cloud and storms in favour of warm to hot conditions with plentiful sun?

I suspect it may come close, but with destabilisation hard to avoid by Monday or even Sunday.

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So often, these thundery lows from the south are depicted doing fascinating things in the longer range, such as moving almost due west in this case before it actually dives SW by day 10. All thanks to the jet digging south in the mid-Atlantic, allowing the Scandi High to extend west and bringing no mechanism by which the thundery low can be lifted out to the NE.

This time around, the proposed presence of a highly meridional (tracking a long way N-S rather than the usual W-E) upstream jet stream pattern is a significant departure from most recent thundery low encounters, and this is reflected in the ability of the Scandi High to not only fend off the Atlantic but actually make inroads upon it.

So the question is, will this help to prevent the usual downgrades in low pressure behaviour to a less inspiring outcome?

Well... I'm hopeful, as it seems to be that the usual downgrades are driven by a W-E jet stream being underestimated in the vicinity of the UK, so perhaps if we have a more N-S jet stream in the offering, we may escape that manner of downgrade for once in a blue moon!

Also adding to my hopes is many memories of Scandi Highs being underestimated, areas of low pressure proving less able to make inroads than initially indicated. While this could potentially mean we miss out on the 'core' of any heat plume involved, I'd happily make the trade for a good number of days (at least 5!) with dry, warm to very warm conditions.

 

I have to say, the N. Hemisphere pattern as a whole looks to be getting a bit creative starting some 5-6 days from now, with major ridges and troughs extending a long way N and S respectively. Just look at the long-fetch southerly taking place on the other side of the hemisphere on the day 10 ECM 12z op chart:

 

GFS, typically, has the jet has more of a SW-NE alignment... but you never know! I'm looking forward to seeing some less common weather patterns for a while as opposed to all manner of westerly variants.

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Last night's 12z ECM was one of the hottest members in the suite by next Monday, so I wouldn't get your hopes up too far!

Here's the ensemble suite with the GFS overlaid in blue. Spot the outlier!

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Yep, the mid range output remains as garbage as ever overall. Plenty of rain around I'd imagine. First half of this week looks useable though. 

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Looks awful here tomorrow with up to 50mm of rain possible. 

And there ends 7 years of traditional "first day of school in the garden" photos for the kids. 

Oh well at least today is nice!

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Yep looks like you're going to cop it tomorrow Doc. Might just escape here in Edinburgh

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY AUG 17TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An area of slack winds will continue to affect all of the UK for the next 24-48hrs. A frontal trough will extend NW across the North Sea later today and tomorrow..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining somewhat mixed with a lot of dry weather for all but with occasional rain too at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm of the flow moving SE over the Atlantic to the Pyrenees with a returning arm North over the North Sea. The Spanish end of the flow breaks up soon while the flow is steered more NE over Scotland as the process of developing a sharp trough in the flow just to the West of the UK is shown late this week and through Week 2. Thereafter, the forecast becomes complex with the flow appearing to break up and become light around the UK in a general broad trough across the Atlantic.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure to the NE. through this week a Low pressure will become dominant up to the NW of the UK pushing troughs occasionally NE over the UK. These will be weak in the SE where warm and muggy air will reign for most of the week whereas elsewhere thicker cloud and rain at times is mor probable. then in Week 2 pressure falls to the South as a thundery low affects the South and SE before all areas become cooler and more unsettled later next week as Low pressure cebtres across the UK before shifting to the East at the end of the run with cool Northerlies for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today shows the Low developing to the NW remaining the dominating feature across the UK for the following week before pressure builds from Europe to lead most areas into a fine, warm and unsettled period before the High relaxes to the NE and allows Low pressure to begin to affect the UK, first in the SW then elsewhere towards the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a good strong trend towards High pressure being dominant around or over the UK in 14 days with fine and settled weather for all with the members that show something more unsettled only catering for this to affect the far North and NW of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure from mid Atlantic gradually becoming influential across the UK from midweek. The North and West will see most effects from this with rain and showers while effects for the South and East will be more minimal with High pressure closer by to the South and SE but by Day 6 a more vigorous Low is shown South-west of Ireland destined for the UK to start next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show ta gang of weakening troughs moving West to east across the UK later in the week with some rain for most at some point or another. The airflow looks moist and humid until the clearance of a cold front East at the weekend brings fresher air across from the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today maintains the theme of Low pressure to the NW and higher pressure to the SE for most if not all of the 10 day period it covers this morning. While some rain at times is shown for the North and West throughout far less is likely to reach the SE in warm SW winds before a general trend towards all areas coming under more direct effect from Low pressure later as it moves closer in to the West and NW of Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Low pressure to the NW becoming the dominant role model later this week with some rain at times especially towards the North and West while the South and East see a lot of dry, warm and hmid air within a lot of cloud. Later the Low slips down across the UK giving all areas an equal risk of rain and showers in more average temperatures by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows very changeable synoptics day to day revlving around a complex area of Low pressure over the North Atlantic and later over and around the UK. The North and West will see rain at times from midweek, spreading further East later to give the UK an unsettled and showery interlude next weekend and early next week before a new Low to the west scoops up more warmth and humidity late next week with heavy rain possible in the West at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows Low pressure West of Scotland with SW winds across the UK. the most likely weather would be a traditional NW/SE split in the weather with rain at times to the North and West while the SE sees the longest dry and warm periods.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are trending towards another more unsettled interlude later this week with the longer term models from GFS hinting at High pressure again in Week 2, still supported by it's ensembles.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 94.6pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.7 pts followed by UKMO at 84.9 and GFS at 82.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.6 pts over GFS's 55.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.7 pts to 36.1 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Most output this morning show something for everyone as all output suggests quite a changeable pattern across the UK over the next few weeks. We start fairly benign as the UK lies in nomansland between both High and Low pressure systems but the pattern simplifies later this week as Low pressure, supported by all models settling to the NW of the UK. Fronts will then be fed East across most parts with mild and muggy air making for a lot of cloud at times and not much in the way of sunshine plus of course some rain, heaviest and most persistent in the North and West. Then most output seems to want to lower pressure further across the UK with all areas coming under a risk of rain or showers at times into next week. Then looking longer term there is a theme that suggests a build of pressure from Europe from GFS later next week bringing the UK under fine and warmer conditions with some summery sunshine should it evolve, though it doesn't look like lasting long. At 10 days ECM doesn't really want to play ball with rising pressure with Low pressure quite close to Western Ireland with unstable if warm Southerly airflow over the UK. It's 10 Day mean chart though not relaeased at the time of compiling this report looks unlikely to look much different to last night's I would think. So looking through the maze there is no consolidation between the models of note this morning with the notable fact for me being that Northern hemispheric patterns across the two weeks failing to lower pressure enough in the Greenland area to allow Low pressure areas to pass far enough to the North and NW to miss the UK given also that the Jet stream though weak at times continues to lie too far South. As a result some rain at least is likely for all at times and while the SE may hold on to a lot of dry weather for longest even here looks like seeing some rain eventually with still no hard concrete evidence of cross model support for anything particularly long lasting with regard to High pressure and summer warmth on a UK wide basis as we head towards the end of the meteorological Summer months. 

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Aug 18th 2015

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