Currently METO is best of the bunch for the 120h and 144h charts.Even an easterly over much of UK.your suggesting gooner that this picture is even more unrelaible than usual?

The other encouraging sign is in the GEFs 0h which has pressure build to the north on the majority of ENS giving aneaterly flow to the north of the UK and coming further south on some ens.

Suspect the result beyond 144h will be more like ecm but still a glimmer of hope og pattern shifting further south. 

Low in confidence, sums it all up very well I'd say

I am more than happy for there to be an extended spell of quiet and settled weather. I just hope that it is a cold and frosty spell if it materialises.

Again very worrying rainfall totals this morning, one thing I have noticed and it's been a trait of recent years, has been for a shortwave to develop off the Norwegian coast, this is shown on the GFS and is another factor in stopping  any height extension West.

I can see what Darren is saying about the transfer of all the energy eastwards to then leading to a High to the West but you are solely dependent on the upstream pattern at a range that can't possibly be forecasted; more than likely another low would come off the seaboard and through any potential Atlantic blocking.

A tad different already from GFS , the small dartboard LP to S of the UK has gone

Can somebody confirm- when the FAX charts update the 120 later, will it be the same chart as the ukm chart for 120? Thanks

The mega dartboard low for next weekend has been replaced by a three-centred system on the 06Z GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif

If anything that makes it even wetter though! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1624.gif

Indeed

All this talk on the Beeb about the North being drier doesn't seem quite right

If GFS verifies of course

Have you seen the new Meteociel 32 chart presentations? You can rotate the globe around to wherever you want and it animates various parameters. Very neat.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php?mode=1

(sorry for advertising a rival site Brian!)

Snow risk in the north east is generally lower on the GFS6z next week and the run is likely to be at the milder end of the GEFS I expect.

GEFS at 120h and 144h have Lp track slightly further north than 0h ensembles

Kudos to GFS - the OP has been pretty decent these last few weeks IMO at the 5-10 day range.
With that stated, I would be very surprised if anything 'wintry' arrives before the 10th January. Just more rain and wind for most.

UKMO out on a limb again at T+144, could it be onto something? GFS has slowly backtracked to UKMO when it comes to dealing with the block to our east. 

The UKMO chart would lead to a good chance of the cold air over the continent advecting towards the UK for a short time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Remember, in January 2013 when the GFS was at odds with the UKMO during that cold spell, even at 72 hours out!

Also great post Darren .

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_120_mslp850.png?cb=175

Does it really look that bad at 120? Ridging seems to be maintained or even increasing slightly over Scandinavia and that low really is aligning itself in a more subservient way. Is there no chance?

I'll not quote it to avoid clutter but Darren's post earlier this morning was a fantastic summary. See...

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=748550#post748550

Midday GEFS updates:

Over on the other side, GP has given one of his jam tomorrow updates. I do wonder how we ever got cold in the eighties when there are all these seemingly multiple factors to overcome/interact. 

ECM shows the two options I mentioned earlier very well in its ensembles!

In the mid-term (5 to 10 days) there's still a lot of uncertainty, depending on where the trough disrupts - if it's far enough south there's still a chance of a cold waft for a day or two.

After the 10th we have either a return to mild SW'ly conditions or we have a much colder spell of weather - a few runs keep the stalemate going, but it's not a likely option at the moment.

The NCEP run on there is this morning's 0z GFS. It went the route of transferring enough heights westwards over Greenland to stall the upper low over the Atlantic, then the heights linked with a ridge coming eastwards from Canada to form a block. Northerlies were the result.

The milder cluster on the graph above don't bring enough heights over Greenland to stop the deep upper low setting up near Iceland.

Thanks Darren. There have been so many great posts recently from lots of excellent contributors but you have ended the year as TWO's most informative poster. Brilliant stuff. Happy New Year. 

Thanks Darren, I think much the likelier option is low pressure coming out of the States and continuing westerlies across us, with the subsequent pressure rise over Southern Europe. That is certainly the favoured METO view, taking us up to 28/1.

Agree to a certain degree but the cold cluster options certainly look a lot more organised than the messier milder options.