The later hi res and the low res show a screaming jet.

I wonder if the models are factoring in the el nino boost - it just seems so weird to see it like that in late Jan/Feb

Hasn't the MetO extended outlook changed to this view today?

No.

"Temperatures should be near or a little above normal, although overnight frosts and fog are likely in the dry and clearer interludes."

Go and have a look at the ENS, they haven't a clue which way to go after 25th /26th

I see what you're saying Darren but IMO their tone is pretty clear cut in that they haven't gone out of their way to declare either low confidence or expressing an alternative weather pattern. Wetter/windier conditions being forecast in the N and W would again suggest a typical set up of a HP lingering over central Europe and the jet running to the N.

Having said the above, I am the first to dismiss their (or any) forecast as being gospel. We have seen how these forecasts can flip at a drop of a hat but my point was to merely highlight that the Met are seemingly more confident today. In the main, GEFS (and presumably ECM/MOGREPS) is quite bullish on a warm up from the weekend and although there is scatter and uncertainty in the longer term (as you'd always expect), the Met must be fairly confident of fairly typical conditions rather than an icy block.... at this stage.

I guess its back to December mode for model watchers now and picking out the odd ens member. Since some experts are going for blocking in mid Feb, we wont really see it in the models for another week. So we just have to wait and do other stuff in the meantime

Not sure I'd agree with that

The last couple of days worth of GFS* runs have been consistently showing a HP dominated outlook in FI - nicely illustrated again on the 12z.

At present there's a bit of a split between HP based just to the West of us and HP just to the East or South East - another consistent FI signal is for the HP to have more of an influence as you go through the run.

It's not too dissimilar to how the current cold/chilly spell showed up on GFS, before the signal for HP to build over Greenland got picked up and overdone.

It might not come to anything of course but it's not a bad long range signal to see if it's cold your after (which we both are). 

*Fairly sure a lot of the GFS FI runs when it was struggling with the current colder weather duration/set up also had HP dominated FI's - I don't think we're in for a mild wet Feb by any means, whether we get something more interesting on the cold front is of course unknown

if ever a chart summed up the UK winter parody it's that one!

amazing really 

Cold air to the east and milder air to the west? - Where the two meet? And which will win? Met office did say colder spells to occur in the SE but hopes have now been dashed and recent GFS show a return to Euroslug? - Is that the right name? Euroslug?

There is no need for despondency.  I found this chart bringing -10 uppers into the SE - for 12 hours - on CFS at 756 hours time, or one month's time.

The outlook seems very uncertain at the moment. We could end up with a wintry blast, an early taste of spring, or God forbid something completely nondescript. Option 3 should never be discounted in the UK. 

Forecast is inaccurate one day ahead too - remember the so called "Disruptive snow" that was forecasted A POSSIBLITY!? - Now nothing for anyone!  

Thats exactly as I thought, from the 25th /26th its anyones guess

Tally: A possibility means just that. A possibility.

Sriram: Whether Idle's post was tongue-in-cheek. We know a chart for one month is JFF... and especially so from CFS.

Brian: Wintry/spring/non-descript, a.k.a average. Let's all state the bleedin' obvious

Stone Cold: Lots of scatter is generally considered the norm.

Gooner Marcus: Stop supporting Arsenal

Rant over.

Bring on the 00z for the next chapter

LOL

What and follow LVG , I'm happy with the blind man

Anyway where are your snow pics

The current snowy uplands of northern and western Britain will be all but a memory by next Monday .

Monday.

[quote=Bertwhistle;758685]

Look at the cold getting down into Egypt.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_120_mslp850.png?cb=440

and then the balm of spring over the UK!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_348_uk2mtmp.png?cb=332

Yes...looks like the weekend will turn very mild after a brief, rather unspectacular hiatus albeit with 2 air frosts & a little snow.  On the subject of cold spreading into regions where it's least welcome (to us in the UK)...Hong Kong is modelled to have a daytime high of 6c on Sunday, that's 12c below normal!!  If only!

David, Northallerton

Looking at the models tonight you have to laugh, we finally have reasonable model consistency out to 240 and it's mild, wet and windy with a brand new shiny Bartlett to replace the one destroyed in mid January.

The Vortex is back over Greenland looking very happy and the MetO have removed all references to cold weather from it's MRF, so what happened to all those good teleconnections? great looking MJO,s? Potential SSW? 

I could go on but needless to say they have all proved a load of old bullocks, ElNino is the big player this year and he doesn't do northern blocking.

Andy

Hmm, jumping the gun a bit there I think, Andy!

Need I remind you of early February nearly 11 years ago when the models flipped mild having previously shown a cold spell coming, and you thought it was all over for cold weather, and what actually happened soon afterwards?

If that is the case, why did the models lead us merrily up the garden path for so long and why did the Meto previously state that February could actually be a genuine winter month? (Now retracted I know as they all stick their tongues out at us and blow rasperries in our direction).

Needless to say, the 18z is another pile of cack! Don't the good burghers of Bern ever get fed up with continuous winter high pressure in their locale? Does it cause them nose bleeds? Do they shake their fists at the sky and demand some good old fashioned wet and windy weather, to provide good skiing conditions in the nearby resorts?

The ghastly 18z even blows away the residual HP cell nosing into Scandi which was present on the 12z - just horrible SW winds all the way. Bah!

I remember that so clearly. I can't believe that was 11 years ago. You're making me feel very old!!