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Scandy 1050 MB
30 January 2016 10:10:18
http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/fluxes.gif 

What happens next is an interesting question. The initial warming has been very well modelled on the Berlin site the following event (which I suspect will be moderated) is literally off the scale:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif


Does seem to be a big event but is it enough to counter the other factors which seem to be locking us into a mild winter?  Ok if you live in Scotland not the case but down here I am now expecting a higher chance of a snowy easter and April this year than a snowy February. Still a chance mid February may of course deliver something as it is the favored time for it and some of the strat warming may have worked through by then, but no sign of anything on the long range FI charts just yet.

doctormog
30 January 2016 10:14:10


http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif


Does seem to be a big event but is it enough to counter the other factors which seem to be locking us into a mild winter?  Ok if you live in Scotland not the case but down here I am now expecting a higher chance of a snowy easter and April this year than a snowy February. Still a chance mid February may of course deliver something as it is the favored time for it and some of the strat warming may have worked through by then, but no sign of anything on the long range FI charts just yet.


Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 


I wouldn't disagree with anything you have written. I think it will be interesting from a "research" point of view to see what happens as a result. If the SSW happens and is a major event it will have a big impact...somewhere. Where that is or what it is is the 64 million dollar question!


Edit: Good stuff Dave, easterlies are evil and a waste of wind. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Sevendust
30 January 2016 10:14:39

Not much change this morning. Generally zonal and at times stormy. Snow will fall at times, sometimes copiously, in upland northern areas.


No sign of a settled spell or anything easterly.

Gooner
30 January 2016 10:15:02

IF talking about SW


Latest UKMO assessment as follows:


- Current warming episode still expected to be minor


- Mixed model signals re SFC story early-mid Feb, but current preferred outcome is for (at least passing) colder phases from later next week and more especially during 2nd week Feb (longevity uncertain) with pattern amplified behind lows and ridging in Atlantic (as per EC Monthly & GloSea5)


- Stratospheric diagnostics indicate resumption of stronger zonal flow for a time from mid into 2nd half Feb


- A more mobile/unsettled outcome then returning for UK (EC Monthly also suggests W'ly return later Feb)


- GloSea5 continues as before to signal any more definite/major stratospheric warming is most likely late Feb-early March

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Maunder Minimum
30 January 2016 10:16:24


 


Does seem to be a big event but is it enough to counter the other factors which seem to be locking us into a mild winter?  Ok if you live in Scotland not the case but down here I am now expecting a higher chance of a snowy easter and April this year than a snowy February. Still a chance mid February may of course deliver something as it is the favored time for it and some of the strat warming may have worked through by then, but no sign of anything on the long range FI charts just yet.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I wouldn't disagree with anything you have written. I think it will be interesting from a "research" point of view to see what happens as a result. If the SSW happens and is a major event it will have a big impact...somewhere. Where that is or what it is is the 64 million dollar question!



I have monitored those Berlin forecasts over the years and they are usually spot on - far more reliable than the GFS equivalents.


 

New world order coming.
Sevendust
30 January 2016 10:17:28


IF talking about SW


Latest UKMO assessment as follows:


- Current warming episode still expected to be minor


- Mixed model signals re SFC story early-mid Feb, but current preferred outcome is for (at least passing) colder phases from later next week and more especially during 2nd week Feb (longevity uncertain) with pattern amplified behind lows and ridging in Atlantic (as per EC Monthly & GloSea5)


- Stratospheric diagnostics indicate resumption of stronger zonal flow for a time from mid into 2nd half Feb


- A more mobile/unsettled outcome then returning for UK (EC Monthly also suggests W'ly return later Feb)


- GloSea5 continues as before to signal any more definite/major stratospheric warming is most likely late Feb-early March


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Translates to a zonal February with the possibility of longer pm interludes behind passing LP's.  Better for the north, crap for the south

doctormog
30 January 2016 10:18:10


IF talking about SW


Latest UKMO assessment as follows:


- Current warming episode still expected to be minor


- Mixed model signals re SFC story early-mid Feb, but current preferred outcome is for (at least passing) colder phases from later next week and more especially during 2nd week Feb (longevity uncertain) with pattern amplified behind lows and ridging in Atlantic (as per EC Monthly & GloSea5)


- Stratospheric diagnostics indicate resumption of stronger zonal flow for a time from mid into 2nd half Feb


- A more mobile/unsettled outcome then returning for UK (EC Monthly also suggests W'ly return later Feb)


- GloSea5 continues as before to signal any more definite/major stratospheric warming is most likely late Feb-early March


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes, that ties in well with Berlin data which this morning suggests the current minor warming followed by the "main event". Whether it verifies remains to be seen.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Maunder Minimum
30 January 2016 10:19:55


 


Translates to a zonal February with the possibility of longer pm interludes behind passing LP's.  Better for the north, crap for the south


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Just as well it is completely wrong then. My money is with the Berlin SSW forecast.

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
30 January 2016 10:21:08

That Met assessment is almost exactly in line with what I've been (and continue) expecting. The big uncertainty is March. It's quite possible IMO that large parts of lowland southern Britain will finish the meteorological winter snowless. However, I'd not rule out a surprise.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Maunder Minimum
30 January 2016 10:21:36


 


Yes, that ties in well with Berlin data which this morning suggests the current minor warming followed by the "main event". Whether it verifies remains to be seen.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


But it does not factor in the major warming signalled by Berlin in a few days  time.


 

New world order coming.
doctormog
30 January 2016 10:25:03


 


But it does not factor in the major warming signalled by Berlin in a few days  time.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


That bit was mentioned in relation to the GloSea5 comment. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Maunder Minimum
30 January 2016 10:28:43


 


That bit was mentioned in relation to the GloSea5 comment. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Perhaps I am misreading it then. GloSea5 says any major warming late Feb or early March, which is when seasonal warming occurs in any case. Berlin shows a major warming in about a week.


 

New world order coming.
Chunky Pea
30 January 2016 10:30:15


 


Translates to a zonal February with the possibility of longer pm interludes behind passing LP's.  Better for the north, crap for the south


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


This ties in with the EPS between day 10 & 15. Cold never far away with even slight hints for weak ridges to build to our north at times but low pressure never far away from us giving plenty of cold rain/warm snow. In summary, pure filth.

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Sevendust
30 January 2016 10:33:12


That Met assessment is almost exactly in line with what I've been (and continue) expecting. The big uncertainty is March. It's quite possible IMO that large parts of lowland southern Britain will finish the meteorological winter snowless. However, I'd not rule out a surprise.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Well you never can - and I have had lying snow here in April. No one can really predict much beyond a few days anyway but what is being shown currently isn't great for the south in terms of snow risk.

Solar Cycles
30 January 2016 10:41:09


 


Perhaps I am misreading it then. GloSea5 says any major warming late Feb or early March, which is when seasonal warming occurs in any case. Berlin shows a major warming in about a week.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Thats my take on it also MM, how can that be down to a SSW when it's played out year in year out at that time of year. Still before the alleged SSW we'll have some interesting weather ahead though for southern parts I'm not so sure anything particularly wintry will be on offer.

Shropshire
30 January 2016 10:41:19

Pretty poor outlook this morning, I find it hard to see how we will breakout of this PV dominated westerly phase for the next few weeks, apart from the odd brief colder phase behind Lows.


 


Not an encouraging update from Ian F, the effects of any possible second warming could take some weeks to propagate.


 


I would suggest for most that the chairs are being put out in the saloon.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Solar Cycles
30 January 2016 10:44:35


Pretty poor outlook this morning, I find it hard to see how we will breakout of this PV dominated westerly phase for the next few weeks, apart from the odd brief colder phase behind Lows.


 


Not an encouraging update from Ian F, the effects of any possible second warming could take some weeks to propagate.


 


I would suggest for most that the chairs are being put out in the saloon.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

For the Midlands Northwards that's very misleading Ian as these places will be under the influence of PM  air for much of the time from next weekend onwards.

cultman1
30 January 2016 10:44:46
They are talking more and more 'winter is over 'on the BBC local radio at least for the south and interestingly how windy wet and warm it has been over the last three months. The question mark is will February follow the trend or spring a surprise especially after mid month. The former observation is likely to continue in my opinion seeing little serious change in the models for the foreseeable....
doctormog
30 January 2016 10:45:37


Pretty poor outlook this morning, I find it hard to see how we will breakout of this PV dominated westerly phase for the next few weeks, apart from the odd brief colder phase behind Lows.


 


Not an encouraging update from Ian F, the effects of any possible second warming could take some weeks to propagate.


 


I would suggest for most that the chairs are being put out in the saloon.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Except that for some based on recent weather and current outlook the chairs keep on getting blown away or covered by snow. The unsettled outlook continues and it is not great for wintry conditions in the south (or even the NE if truth be told) but for the NWern quadrant of the U.K. it is still full of promise.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
30 January 2016 10:48:27

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016013006/gfs-0-168.png?6


Ouch. Potential stingjet for the south to join in with the battering for the north on Monday and Tuesday


Horrendous GFS 06z. My dodgy garage roof is on death row if this run comes off


As Ian says, no sign of any northern blocking. Just a southerly jet and cold zonality and lots of rain and storms

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doctormog
30 January 2016 10:50:43


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016013006/gfs-0-168.png?6


Ouch. Potential stingjet for the south to join in with the battering for the north on Monday and Tuesday


Horrendous GFS 06z. My dodgy garage roof is on death row if this run comes off 


As Ian says, no sign of any northern blocking. Just a southerly jet and cold zonality and lots of rain and storms


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes, I am sick of the storminess and wet weather this winter and Monday's weather, for the reasons you highlight, is worth watching carefully as the details will change with each new run.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
30 January 2016 10:52:26

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016013006/gfsnh-0-300.png?6


This ridge might hold a bit longer and allow the cold air to make more progress, but deep into FI of course


Before that ,we might get 3 named storms.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Shropshire
30 January 2016 10:54:12

Solar, I just don't get excited by these cooler zonal phases when the next low bringing more wind and rain is only a day away.


 


Doc I did say for 'most' , meaning most areas, most of the general populous and most of those on TWO 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
30 January 2016 10:56:46


Solar, I just don't get excited by these cooler zonal phases when the next low bringing more wind and rain is only a day away.


 


Doc I did say for 'most' , meaning most areas, most of the general populous and most of those on TWO 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


True, I just wanted to highlight the other bit.  Cold zonality doesn't do much here most of the time either.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gusty
30 January 2016 11:24:14


Pretty poor outlook this morning, I find it hard to see how we will breakout of this PV dominated westerly phase for the next few weeks, apart from the odd brief colder phase behind Lows.


 Not an encouraging update from Ian F, the effects of any possible second warming could take some weeks to propagate.


 I would suggest for most that the chairs are being put out in the saloon.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Good post Ian. For the north though things are still very much game on with frequent colder and wintry incursions ushered in a cold polar maritime flows. 


For the south winter 2015/16 is a bust. Its been another horror show. The sea temperatures are 2 degrees above normal, the ground depth temperatures are a couple of degrees above normal..basically the environment is too warm. For decent snow down here we need a NE'ly in sub -10c 850Hpa..that ain't happening. A cold continental undercut is our next chance but there is little evidence of that happening either.


We are forever chasing rainbows..those pretty straw clutching SSW charts that keep getting posted are always two weeks away with little assurance that it will propogate to lower levels, or indeed this side of the hemisphere.


Yes there may be snow in late Feb and March..possibly April but seriously who needs that ? Not all the trees coming into blossom and the well advanced tender plants. After the winter devoid of cold and with above average rainfall we will all need warmth and sunshine by then. 


..as Duncan Bannantyne would say.."and for that reason I'm out" 


 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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