Interesting from IF

12z EC delivers snow across much of northern/western/central UK by end of Thursday: all of Wales and for England, approx Scarborough down to Bournemouth as eastern boundary; western boundary approx Exmoor to Exeter (plus Dartmoor).  12z UKMO-GM broadly similar ideas (re western bias).  Much water to run under bridge before then, so very low confidence and no individual solution is trustworthy at this point.

Re this weekend, key difference is how 12z EC offers a far less wet day for the south on Saturday (thus also further reducing scope for any snow across e.g. Chilterns, Cotswolds, Downs). UKMO have modified forecast expectations towards this solution (thus also losing yellow wind warning for SW: nonetheless, a few ENS members are still potent). 

Snow moving across the UK, not what S K L showed us at 21:55 .

Thats a hell of an Easterly................just no cold

Cold actually does develop over us

yes and we know which one most likely to come to fruition! 

Intrestingly enough the beeb forecast doesnt match up to the post by IF,very early days to be writing snow off yet IMO

its changed now on 18z, but the 'Banbury' pixel was the coldest pixel (jointly with somewhere in the Alps) in the whole European map!  Unprecedented for winter surely!

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?1

96h fax

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?1

120 fax

Fronts fast approaching from the West

The most interesting feature there is the convergence zone over the SE corner.

The South East crew would be happy with that, not often you see streamers shown on the fax charts.

Cold nights - staying well into next weekend. - Hope this materialises.

Not seen a chart like this in a looooooooooong time! - Look at the HP in the Atlantic, over Scandinavia and western Russia - 3000 odd miles of it!

Latest from IF

Similar themes to GloSea5. Through to (nearly mid) March, temp anomaly either indistinct from climatology or a tad below. Later Feb sees Atlantic ridging; this followed by a return to zonality (tail-end Feb into 1st week of March) with lows tracking to or across NW/N of UK and resurrection of +ve precipitation anomalies widely nationwide, with ENS suggesting a possible spike in this 'wet phase' circa d15-20 (which could of course include colder Pm or even Am incursions). By 2nd week March, almost indistinct MSLP/PPN/Temp anomalies; slight whiff of lows to N/high pressure to SW, but insignificant signal at that range. Net outcome is predominantly W-NW flow regime throughout, irrespective of cyclonic or anticyclonic bias. However, stamps offer variety of possibilities within this broad idea, as might be expected.

So, basically more of the same with a seasonal temperature trend, i.e. gradual warming, and on the wet side.

Mind you that same model didn't pick up on this imminent cold spell.

Very nice GFS this morning with 24 hrs of snow for EA and SE next Thursday.

id be very surprised if sunday night Monday morning didn't see some snow with charts like the one below. Looks ideal for snow showers in the East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.html

Ecm also looking good for snow Thursday night in the SE nd EA.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

The cold continues throughout the week

ECM actually shows no "total frozen precipitation" whatsoever for most of the SE and EA, even out to day 10. The snowline starts just east of Reading, with increasing amounts further west.

Snow crossing the UK , gets stuck in the SE

Ok fair enough let's hope the GFS is correct then for our locations.

Thanks for the charts Gooner, however even if the set-up plays out like this the frontal band will be a weakening feature breaking up as it heads East.

No it does not Ian a small development from a short wave running s/e if gfs is correct

Indeed.

My recollection of the model output from a week or so ago is that it was looking rather questionable for a while as to whether the quieter spell we are now going into, and which had originally been forecast by the MetO towards the end of January IIRC, would happen at all. My main hope is that the worst of this winter's wet and stormy weather is now behind us.

Just looked at GEFS 0h run.

At 96h moist ens show some sort of Scandi HP.

By 144h still mostly in control but groupings emerge of ,with around 40% showing HP in good position ie further north

eg http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=6&mode=0&carte=0

By 192h roughly 50:50 split ,mild Atlantic v HP.

It would be nice to see stronger development of the well positioned Scandi HP's anfd that possibility cannot be ruled out.But as many have already posted so far this winter any Scandi HP has been squeezed out pretty quickly by the jet to the NW and the balance currently favours this happening yet again.