Some wet snow in the south tomorrow morning? 

quite true MM. I've been thinking a lot about this recently- winter cold upgrades are as rare as hens teeth, whereas downgrades to the point of non events seem to be common and once into the reliable, are well and truly nailed. The reverse can be the case come summer, hot charts evaporate before your eyes, "if only it was winter" synoptic charts verify when you least want them. I suppose it's the temperate crapfest we live in. 

Big downgrades atm for next week, though we may get a few frosts. Let's see what this weekends model runs bring. 

Big downgrade in fact the 6Z was an upgrade of the 0Z. 

Still, it probably won't matter; I recon the ECM will be an upgrade; isn't it always the case the ECM picks it up just as the GFS drops it (before dropping it itself).

So the predictable downgrades have begun as we approach the hour. It was always in the cards really with  the ECM having none of it whilst the GFS touches you up like a drunken Saturday night misdemeanour, only for the following day to find out your great night wasn't all that great after all. Still Spring will soon be upon us and we can all drool at the perfect winter Synoptics from there on.

Er...what about Eastern Scotland???

Happens almost every year at this stage.

Spring will be downgraded to nearer the time.

Christ it was only 1 gfs opp run plenty of very good options on the table chill out folk

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=150

Very disappointing from the 12z's ,  was looking forward to a cold week with some hints of snow

Nooo! Not you as well Marcus  Don't give up! I know odds are we are on another slippery slope to disappointment but it's one set of bad runs and it might moderate somewhat when the 18z is out. The Met/Beeb are obviously seeing something of interest next week and, I think due to the nature of setups like this we'll have a few pleasant surprises in some places - it might be you! 

Disappointing lack of momentum today and it all looks quite uninspiring for most of lowland UK.

The Scandy high possibilities are fading, as are my chances of seeing snow falling this winter. Onward and upward as they say. It's about now I turn my thoughts to the US chasing season so if any budding chasers out there fancy an escape from this dirge to see some real weather late May feel free to give me a shout!

I think this winter will be sorely remembered as the one that teased the most and delivered next to nothing when it was most desired.

This weekend low represents the manifestation of the MJO-forced mid-month potential and it would have been fine had we not had so little cold air in the vicinity. As it is, we might sneak a bit of snow out of it across the south, with the models indicating a setup that is right on the fence between that and rain Saturday night, but it's far from what we hoped to be seeing.

I'll admit, I didn't expect the lack of pre-existing cold to be such a problem given how quickly things can change over the continent, but in that respect I have been caught out.

Next week was presenting an interesting case for trough disruption but, yet again this winter, this has suddenly been snatched away at 4-5 days range. The only way back is if the secondary low that's acting to flatten the ridge adjusts to one that quickly merges with the parent trough while still on the SW flank (think of it as guiding the jet SE from the SW flank instead of NE from the SE flank). Either that or impact of the MJO signal in the next few days being underestimated but that's also a long shot.

Regardless of GFS lower-res in recent times, there remains a lot of indications that the final week of the month is likely to see high latitude blocking emerge in force with a focus initially to the NE/N then to the N/NW, just when a lot of us would rather it didn't . Before that it looks a bit uninspiring overall, though I'm not convinced the models are handling the amplification from the Pacific quite right.

All very intact dry chilly whatnot disgraceful useless forecasting.

No point taking the Model Output Seriously next 7 days apart from Sunday, Monday and Late Wednesday to early Thursday, otherwise the GFS and UKMO not worth hope casting we are just shown a few night frosts touch and go ones for some.

Hopefully we will see pretty ordinary dry sunny and cloudy conditions but except and unless we get Low Pressure rain that turns heavy enough to discuss about, next 7 days very narrow limited events of cold NE flow, northerly and then NW terly and after next thursday we back to Euro Trash High and Bartlett Combined, NW to NE Atlantic and Norway taking winter away from US as well the NE USA nicks cold Low P and some winter conditions: there enjoy it so do Iceland and Greenland but Greenland Winter freeze and Iceland Freeze good at least it maintains important Arctic Sea Ice max target next few weeks ahem.  WIO, we had several heavy rains and winter rain Low P named systems at least but the Strong Azores and Sceuro High just does it for Winter 2015/16 now.😂🙂🕸🌷🌫☕️.

[quote=nsrobins;766958]

Disappointing lack of momentum today and it all looks quite uninspiring for most of lowland UK.

The Scandy high possibilities are fading, as are my chance of seeing snow falling this winter. Onward and upward as they say. It's about now I turn my thoughts to the US chasing season so if any budding chasers out there fancy an escape from this dirge to see some real weather late May feel free to give me a shout!

[/quot

still we did get 3 frosts, 1 day where the temperature was for a couple of hours below average and the longest Autumn on record. 

Yeah, but that's like ' ducks in road' compared to 'comet strike' as far as news is concerned. 

Different and better than GFS

One model run......oooh and then the next aargh ; Fickle or what?  

This thread never ceases to entertain

Surely not...

Disappointing but not surprising to see this evenings downgrades.However there is still snow forecast for Scotland,and And those in the south might have a couple of sunny days at the beginning of next week to enjoy.

Finally the harsh facts-roughly there are twice as many NAO + as NAO- winters.That means that on average there is only a one in three chance of a winter overall having a cold circulation pattern or putting another way three times a decade.

Still will continue model watching for the remaining part of Februaryy just in case the rare upgrade occurs!

Not strictly 'model output' but Brett Anderson of Accuweather going for a stormy west Atlantic towards the end of Feb/start of Mar. With colder air  progged for the NE American continent for this time, it'll be interesting I think to see what consequences, if any, will be for this side of the pond down the line.

Warm air over the South US, cold air in the NE. Looks like a textbook +NAO

Until that cold blob disappears in the Mid Atlantic, more frequent westerlies then normal will be favoured.

Hopefully next winter we will see something different.

Its got to the point where I'd rather look forward to some Spring warmth now. A good cold spell is still possible at this time of year but we really need a cold pool of air to our East for that to happen.

I'm thinking it's time to hang up the gloves when the message is this.