This is our 3rd day in a row over 27c Moomin and to be honest this wasn't spotted by the models until quite late so I wouldn't rule out some more hot weather over the next 2 weeks .

After the nightmare of a time I had trying to get some sleep last night (temps were forecast to be no lower than 20C in Glasgow last night, most unusual for us!), I'm not sorry that it's going to cool down again. Yesterday and last night were way too humid for my liking.

yes I can't wait for the cool down either , way way to hot for me . I like it settled and dry but not to hot and muggy around the 20 mark is warm enough . 😎

The outlook looks fairly ordinary to me. 3 days in a row above 80F is good enough for me - can't expect too much outside of heatwave months (i.e July 2006). Next 10 days has highs in the low-mid 20s, with sunny spells, chance of one or two showers. So pleasant.

GFS 12z isn't too inspiring, with low pressure taking over and being very stubborn to shift as the Greeny high just blocks an Azores high inroad 

Interestingly you can see a hurricane modelled at the end of the run to the far SE of the US  That might shake up the pattern going into August 

If you looked at the GEM 12z on the 19th it was showing a set up at 240 hours that could easily have led, a few days later, to something more extreme than August 2003. It was just showing the beginnings.

One model, no support elsewhere, so a bit of fun. But that kind of pattern is technical feasible as that model showed. One of these days we'll see something like this for real.

Sadly GEM is now back with the pack.

That might just be the thing that finally kills the Greeny block, should it come to pass. The deep FI section of a few GFS op runs seems to have been toying with the idea of a possible hange as we move into August, the most notable change that I have seen from those runs being the eventual demise of the Greenland High.

IIRC, the TWO summer forecast did go for better weather in August than what was predicted for June and July, so who knows? Maybe GFS is starting to pick up on a possible change. Let's hope so!

Strangely this is what Philip Hammond mentioned toward the end of last week, the idea of a hurricane converting to a strong low pressure system that would dislodge the pattern and produce a different set-up. I suppose this means an intense system would finally send the Greenland high packing, allowing the Azores high to transfer from its deep mid-Atlantic hideaway and push more in our direction.

Current output is nothing exciting for hot weather fans but I don't think we should write off August just yet. Something along the lines of the Hammond suggestion may just happen and before you know it we may actually have a very good August. And it's been quite a long time since we've had one of those.

I reckon you may be thinking of John Hammond here (BBC forecaster). Philip Hammond in the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, if I'm not mistaken.

Interesting GFS 00z run, with high pressure more of an influence for southern areas in particular next week, before low pressure eventually takes over in time for next weekend. Thereafter the situation seems very messy and uncertain, with the arse end of FI treating us to another plume with low pressure in the Atlantic drawing up more humid air from southern Europe with high pressure to the north and east.

GEM and ECM more progressive with the Atlantic low influence next week  The former has flip-flopped more than a decked mackerel wearing flip-flops, however.

No, No, No,. You mean Albert Hammond

https://youtu.be/fvKlUfVb90Y

indeed, as the gfs mean shows it would not take much but don't tell moomin

Interestingly today a total divergence between ECM and GFS in the hires.

If this was winter one of them would be getting a good slating.

Hoping GFS wins out as I am on holiday in Devon next week

Warm and dry according to UKMO away from the far north

Mid to upper 20's in the south and SE this weekend according to GFS

Looking at the 12z run as a whole, it's exactly what we want to see long-term for the rest of this summer. Falling heights over Greenland keeps high pressure over the southern half of the UK, occasionally extending ridges further north too with low pressure tracking north of the UK rather than across the middle.

Very little rain for the south going by this run. We'll be seeing a 'yellow grass thread' soon  (started by Essan)

Yes all looking a lot more ridged on the midday run. Similar signals from GFS operational at midday.

ECM also shows the heights over Greenland gradually diminishing as we move into the start of August- let's hope this is maintained in the coming runs. If we can get rid of the heights over Greenland, it may be the first steps towards getting us out of this unsettled rut we've been in since late June.

Oops, can't think why I made that mistake, no disrespect intended to the new Chancellor but I do find John Hammond more interesting to listen to!

Yellow grass already evident around Cambridge and driving through to the Suffolk borders, so this will surely intensify if the current run verifies.

Could be a nice August, at least for central and southern England