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Brian Gaze
14 September 2016 09:18:04
Keep the climate change stuff out of this thread or I'll lock it. What Retron said was factually correct. Draw your own conclusons and keep them to yourselves.
Brian Gaze
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Charmhills
14 September 2016 09:18:20


 


Localised weather variation is not of itself indicative of climate change and that is the problem.


Yesterday for example, was the warmest September day since 1911 - but that means there was an even hotter September spell 105 years ago.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Indeed.


Of course weather records only go back 300 years so only a tiny time scale earth wise.


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golfingmad
14 September 2016 10:24:05

Cambridge recorded 32C yesterday, but honestly with the humidity and lack of wind it actually felt even hotter than that!


So I believe the date recorded for the 13th September was smashed yesterday, and it was the warmest day in September since 1911. If the temps reach over 30C today I presume the date record for the 14th September will also fall?


Big question now is the possibility of a warm up again toward the end of this month? I believe there's everything to play for with the regard to the CET record for September, set in 2006 with a temp of 16.8C. But even if we don't break that record, it is highly likely this September CET will be over 16C, which is amazing in itself. And to think that the first and second ranked Septembers have all occurred in a period of ten years is amazing!


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Rob K
14 September 2016 10:42:06


Remember it was just a couple of years ago that we reached 30c in October (albeit 1st October) and just last year that we had a record warm November day.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I seem to remember we missed out by 0.1C that year (2011), and the official record was 29.9C.


 


BTW the Gravesend max was as reported, 34.4C, on the synop, despite no hourly figures above 32.0C. Must have been an unusual short burst of heat at some point.


Data here: http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=03784&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2016&mes=09&day=13&hora=18


 


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Twister
14 September 2016 11:57:46

Here's a comparison of the length of day and sun's altitude above horizon between 2 and 13 Sep, the date of the 1905 and 2016 heat peaks respectively. (Note, figures below all based on Gravesend)


 


Length of day:


2 Sep: 13:29


13 Sep: 12:47 (c. 42 minutes shorter)


 


Sun height:


2 Sep: 46.24 degrees


13 Sep: 42.15 degrees  (c. 4 degrees lower in the sky)


 


So it does make you wonder whether if the same synoptics had taken place 11 days earlier, it may have had a chance at matching or beating the all-time record?


 


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Jiries
14 September 2016 12:05:10


Here's a comparison of the length of day and sun's altitude above horizon between 2 and 13 Sep, the date of the 1905 and 2016 heat peaks respectively. (Note, figures below all based on Gravesend)


 


Length of day:


2 Sep: 13:29


13 Sep: 12:47 (c. 42 minutes shorter)


 


Sun height:


2 Sep: 46.24 degrees


13 Sep: 42.15 degrees  (c. 4 degrees lower in the sky)


 


So it does make you wonder whether if the same synoptics had taken place 11 days earlier, it may have had a chance at matching or beating the all-time record?


 


Originally Posted by: Twister 


And what if same Synoptics occur on 22nd June? Would be 38-40C being reached? Could be with shorter night and night temps would be 22-24C minimums.

Ally Pally Snowman
14 September 2016 13:00:34

Marham and Lakenheath both 31c at 1 pm


 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
14 September 2016 13:18:40

Some 2 pm temps


Bedford 32c 


Writtle 31c 


Cambridge 31c


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
14 September 2016 17:39:44


Here's a comparison of the length of day and sun's altitude above horizon between 2 and 13 Sep, the date of the 1905 and 2016 heat peaks respectively. (Note, figures below all based on Gravesend)


 


Length of day:


2 Sep: 13:29


13 Sep: 12:47 (c. 42 minutes shorter)


 


Sun height:


2 Sep: 46.24 degrees


13 Sep: 42.15 degrees  (c. 4 degrees lower in the sky)


 


So it does make you wonder whether if the same synoptics had taken place 11 days earlier, it may have had a chance at matching or beating the all-time record?


 


Originally Posted by: Twister 


Thanks for this sensible analysis Twister.  We are months away from breaking the 40c barrier. June is the great sleeping giant.  A 1976 type event will happen again, eventually, and that the conditions now in the 21st century have the capacity to smash records should now be obvious.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
eddied
14 September 2016 18:03:44

Was it last year we came close? Last July? I forget the date but we recorded a 37c I thought, despite it being cloudy for a couple of hours in the afternoon. It was high uppers 20c ish 850s in a southerly feed peaking at exactly the right time of day... then a random band of cloud blew over. In the end it didn't break any records, but 40c really did feel within reach then.

It was the only warm spell of the summer too iirc


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Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
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Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Rob K
14 September 2016 18:11:32


Was it last year we came close? Last July? I forget the date but we recorded a 37c I thought, despite it being cloudy for a couple of hours in the afternoon. It was high uppers 20c ish 850s in a southerly feed peaking at exactly the right time of day... then a random band of cloud blew over. In the end it didn't break any records, but 40c really did feel within reach then.

It was the only warm spell of the summer too iirc


Originally Posted by: eddied 


It was a one-day wonder, July 1 last year. 36.7C at Heathrow. I believe that made it the equal third hottest day ever recorded in the UK (with Aug 9 1911), after 38.5C on Aug 10 2003 and 37.1C on Aug 3 1990. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
14 September 2016 18:22:51

31.1C at Marham today


30.5C at Santon Downham but that is an hourly reading. Maximum could be higher than the figure for Marham.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 September 2016 18:35:12
Arome high def tells me central London (St James Park, possibly Heathrow or Northolt) will be the hotspot tomorrow, just about hitting 31C. Should see a few 30s in East Anglia and North Kent.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
14 September 2016 18:42:44


31.1C at Marham today


30.5C at Santon Downham but that is an hourly reading. Maximum could be higher than the figure for Marham.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


Looks like those 2pm temps I posted were from yesterday, they were posted for today on Look East twitter feed. Doh!


Still incredible temps for mid September 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Sevendust
14 September 2016 18:48:56
Tomorrow should be the third successive date record 🙂
Whether Idle
14 September 2016 19:08:00

Arome high def tells me central London (St James Park, possibly Heathrow or Northolt) will be the hotspot tomorrow, just about hitting 31C. Should see a few 30s in East Anglia and North Kent.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Meanwhile at work in Faversham it was a good 6 degrees or so cooler than yesterday.  I've never been so relieved to have had a max of 28c.  Not looking forward to 30c or so tomorrow.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
superteacher
14 September 2016 19:18:47
Hoping to squeeze out another 90F day in London. 31C being progged, so maybe 32C not out of the question. To think we went 7 years between 1976 and 1983 without seeing 90F at all in the UK. Getting greedy now!
Hungry Tiger
14 September 2016 19:44:50

Hoping to squeeze out another 90F day in London. 31C being progged, so maybe 32C not out of the question. To think we went 7 years between 1976 and 1983 without seeing 90F at all in the UK. Getting greedy now!

Originally Posted by: superteacher 


:D


 


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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
14 September 2016 20:42:12
We're overdue a proper humdinging 3 month summer scorcher. 2017 maybe.

Last time we had sustained heat and drought in the two peak summer months was 1995. 2003 too, at a push (July was hot but only dry in the SE). Last time we had 3 anomalously hot, dry and sunny summer months in a row was 1976.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Essan
14 September 2016 21:05:34

Last time we had 3 anomalously hot, dry and sunny summer months in a row was 1976.

Originally Posted by: TimS 



last time we had 3 anomalously cold, snowy months in a row was 21,564BC 


Andy
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Chidog
14 September 2016 21:13:44
Not sure if this is the right thread, but is this the first time in the UK that over 33C has been recorded in three consecutive months?
Nick Gilly
14 September 2016 21:30:04

Not sure if this is the right thread, but is this the first time in the UK that over 33C has been recorded in three consecutive months?

Originally Posted by: Chidog 


No. It happened in 1911:


July: 36.1C at Greenwich (revised from 38.5C) and Tonbridge


August: 36.7C at Raunds


September: 34.6C at Raunds again


 


1911 sounds like it was a stonker of a summer. The good weather started in May and lingered on into mid-October.

15 September 2016 08:43:21

Arpege model has downgraded the heat somewhat for today. 22-24C for most central and eastern areas. Highest figure shown is 29C towards the west of Suffolk and perhaps into Essex. So could just squeeze 30C if we are lucky. 


Today's hotspots likely to be in the area around Writtle and Cavendish.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=18&mode=31&map=330

Ally Pally Snowman
15 September 2016 15:11:49

A remarkable spell of weather


from BBC Weather Twitter 


'Writtle, Santon Downham & Gravesend have all reached 30C today. The last time we had 3 consecutive Sept days reaching 30C was in 1929'.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
16 September 2016 06:51:29

Cavendish 30.6c the hotspot yesterday probably at least 9 months until we see such temps again. Shame


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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