A hint of interest in the ECM Op tonight I see - not impossible of course but a quick look at the 240 position on the GFS ens shows essentially no similar options, although there's HP not too far away so it could happen. (Not to mention GFS placed the current block too far South as well).
UKMO (must admit I rarely look at that even though it regularly verifies second) seems to keep the HP cell marginally more south than the ECM at T120 albeit the pattern is broadly the same.
GFS ens are, as they have been for a little while now, showing a warm up around the 24/26th Jan, albeit average to a little above seems more likely than unusually mild. The unsettled signal is still there during the warm up although down here at least the rain spikes are reducing and the pressure ens show a fair bit of scatter. There does seem to be an increase in blocked members (sounds painful) right at the end of FI suggesting on this run at least GFS isn't going for a prolonged zonal spell.
Given the pattern of the winter so far a 3-4 day unsettled blip (down here anyway) doesn't seem like a bad punt.
Nothing particularly exciting on show at present but I don't think we're a million miles away from seeing some decent charts again soon. Whether any of them will verify if they do appear is of course rather debateable.
Before we do get to an unsettled spell (assuming it doesn't disappear from the ens) there's still the chilly weather to come for my neck of the woods. Today certainly felt nippy, compensated for by some lovely crisp sunshine. Not a bad day for mid January
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