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Brian Gaze
18 January 2017 09:22:26

Stay on topic.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
The Beast from the East
18 January 2017 10:21:51

a slight correction north for our high. Looks like ECM may have been right in picking the Azores ridge which extents our spell but it only delays the end result which is inevitable without height rises over Greenland.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011806/gfsnh-0-132.png?6


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
18 January 2017 10:25:08

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011806/gfsnh-1-144.png?6


Very warm in the NE America. Trump will blame Climate change!


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
18 January 2017 10:25:27

Still fairly seasonably cold across the country both day and night - even towards next Tuesday into Wednesday it will be cold and dry in the south a week today: - Is it me or is the zonal being put back by a day each gfs run?



The forecast was for wet and windy weather to return Monday!? - But look what we have building on Tuesday instead? - I don't know if this is good or bad news for any northern blocking but good in short term surely!?



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
18 January 2017 10:26:48

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011806/gfsnh-0-156.png?6


a more amplified run for sure. Hopefully we can keep the clear skies and frost


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
18 January 2017 10:33:00


 


Blocking is centred over Poland  - the only milder weather would be for the north and west with the south and more especially the SE staying largely dry a week today).


 Also notice the HP over Newfoundland? - hardly any zonal weather  in the Atlantic except over southern Greenland. but that ridge over eastern Canada is good news for us would you not say!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Beast from the East
18 January 2017 10:33:25

Any Strat warming would be helpful at this point. Cant see how to get a Scandi high otherwise, shame we are stuck in no mans land as another cold burst goes to Turkey and Greece


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
18 January 2017 10:38:04

we need the pattern to keep backing west but I cant see that happening with that Canadian ridge.


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
18 January 2017 10:41:47

Netweather GFS Image


I mean you can see what happens when the attack angle is more southerly than south westerly. If we can get a slight easterly component we could actually get undercutting!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
tallyho_83
18 January 2017 10:54:23


we need the pattern to keep backing west but I cant see that happening with that Canadian ridge.


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


But doesn't the ridge over eastern Canada at +180hrs  mean less Atlantic storms for us? - that's where the Atlantic storms originate from then blast up the zonal jet, so surely the ridge building off eastern Canada is a plus for us in not wanting wetter weather?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Twister
18 January 2017 11:20:12
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16215.gif 

However, with quite a lot of energy forecast to go north of our HP, time will tell whether the HP will be allowed to get far enough north for an early stab at an easterly. I suspect probably not... but whatever happens to the HP, it is certainly putting up a good fight.
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Gandalf The White
18 January 2017 12:08:21


 


But doesn't the ridge over eastern Canada at +180hrs  mean less Atlantic storms for us? - that's where the Atlantic storms originate from then blast up the zonal jet, so surely the ridge building off eastern Canada is a plus for us in not wanting wetter weather?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


It doesn't work like that.  A ridge over eastern Canada should mean a trough somewhere to the east, over the Atlantic.  If you have a strong Arctic air mass coming south over the western Atlantic it can trigger cyclogenesis there: it doesn't have to be off the eastern Seaboard of the US.  It's akin to a west based negative NAO, i.e. it opens up the Atlantic to low pressure and the prospect of south-westerlies for the British Isles.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Joe Bloggs
18 January 2017 12:11:19

A nice wintry outlook as we head towards the weekend and beyond into next week. 


Sunday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.gif 


Monday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.gif


Tuesday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.gif


Wednesday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif


By Thursday the milder air eventually pushes in, but FI by then.


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif


No complaints from me if we have a such a long run of frosty nights. Next best after snow IMO.



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Rob K
18 January 2017 12:30:25
Although a westerly influence looks set to come back in a week or so, there certainly doesn't seem to be much mildness on offer.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png 

Not the most exciting picture, admittedly, but still relatively seasonal (and with the prospect of a week of sharp frosts to come first).
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Twister
18 January 2017 12:41:16
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38656962 
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
Phil G
18 January 2017 13:30:54


A nice wintry outlook as we head towards the weekend and beyond into next week. 


Sunday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.gif 


Monday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.gif


Tuesday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.gif


Wednesday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif


By Thursday the milder air eventually pushes in, but FI by then.


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif


No complaints from me if we have a such a long run of frosty nights. Next best after snow IMO.


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Same here Joe. We did not have a frost last winter, so sounds desperate but pleased to see wintry conditions in winter. It feels like we are having the seasons and according to the models can enjoy this for another week at least.


 

some faraway beach
18 January 2017 13:56:17

It will be interesting to see what impact the satellite Aeolus will have on model accuracy, assuming it will launch: Originally Posted by: Twister 

">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38656962


Thanks for that. Let's hope the boffins do manage to solve the laser problems.


Interesting that they single out the tropics as the area where we lack initial data. We (or at least I) always assume that the the poles are potentially problematic in this respect, owing to the low number of data points due to lack of human habitation. But of course an area such as the tropical Pacific is way larger and even more sparsely populated.


And when you think about it, it's the tropics where weather "begins", as storm clouds build and warmth is transported to the poles. I guess it would take about a week for those systems to reach our latitudes and start impacting our weather, and a week is about the point at which model output accuracy falls off a cliff.


If they really have found a way to measure tropical air movements by satellite, then this could be a game changer in terms of turning Fantasy Island into reality. We might get a clue from the ensembles, if this gets launched and they suddenly start showing less scatter than usual.


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Quantum
18 January 2017 16:07:31

Trends even further west yet again!


Netweather GFS Image


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Russwirral
18 January 2017 16:22:09


Trends even further west yet again!


Netweather GFS Image


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


What do you think Q - we're getting quite close to Iceland now.  You think this will end up into Scandi high territory if we continue in this vane?


Quantum
18 January 2017 16:23:43

Warm air really close to Greenland. 552 isopleth near Iceland.


Netweather GFS Image


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
18 January 2017 16:25:04


 


 


What do you think Q - we're getting quite close to Iceland now.  You think this will end up into Scandi high territory if we continue in this vane?


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Or even a Greenland high. The winds over newfoundland are also becoming more easterly; advecting warm air in that direction should make it difficult for the atlantic to get going. Very interesting trends, I don't think it would take much now to completely turn this pattern on its head.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Russwirral
18 January 2017 16:28:08


 


Or even a Greenland high. The winds over newfoundland are also becoming more easterly; advecting warm air in that direction should make it difficult for the atlantic to get going. Very interesting trends, I don't think it would take much now to completely turn this pattern on its head.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Nice to see HP broadening itself north of the UK around the 23rd.  Would support your thinking.  If this does start to heard in that direction it would be one of the biggest swings towards this kind of event Ive ever seen.  Alot of things finely balanced here.


 


Has to be said though.. this is one run of 22, from one of several models


 


Fingers crossed


 


Latest 


12z


Netweather GFS Image


 


Vs 6z


Netweather GFS Image


 


Quantum
18 January 2017 16:32:01


 


 


Nice to see HP broadening itself north of the UK around the 23rd.  Would support your thinking.  If this does start to heard in that direction it would be one of the biggest swings towards this kind of event Ive ever seen.  Alot of things finely balanced here.


 


Has to be said though.. this is one run of 22, from one of several models


 


Fingers crossed


 


Latest 


12z


 


 


Vs 6z


 


 


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


I think once we get the huge positive temp anomalies appearing over Greenland, this will be difficult to ride back from. Having all this warm air at a high latitude is a zonality killer.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Russwirral
18 January 2017 16:36:45


 


I think once we get the huge positive temp anomalies appearing over Greenland, this will be difficult to ride back from. Having all this warm air at a high latitude is a zonality killer.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Interestingly there seems to be continued forecast for a SSW over on the siberian side around that time...


 


The two actions linked?  


Phil G
18 January 2017 16:48:11
Just catching the GFS 12z run out to 204 and the whole chart looks markedly different from the 6z. Where it goes from here?

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