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Gandalf The White
20 January 2017 10:04:39


 


That is some block forecast out there to the east Steve, a wall north to south, its going to take some punch to get through. The Azores high wants to help out later on, but its suggested the Atlantic doesn't make it to the east of us which makes our space a bit of a battlefield between two pressure systems. Could be the southerly flow may inflate the high to east and looking for signals this may happen if low pressure can then drive through to the south.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


It's a delicate evolution to get enough WAA to bolster the block, especially when there's high pressure too close to the south west countering trough disruption because you can't get energy into the southern arm of the jet, under the block.


The models keep tweaking the evolution so there's little certainty about how things will pan out a week hence. The Atlantic looks to be waking up but everything continues to slip back.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
20 January 2017 10:15:38

block a bit stronger


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017012006/gfsnh-0-138.png?6


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
20 January 2017 10:16:57

In the shorter term the ensembles showing current cold spell in the South continuing for a few days. With maxima 4-5C and nightly frosts around -4C on average and perhaps lower in the next few days it has only really lacked snow.This seems to have slipped through the net a bit and will have lasted over a week before it ends.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
20 January 2017 10:21:21

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017012006/gfsnh-0-156.png?6


first attempt fails, but warm southerly winds for us all


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
squish
20 January 2017 10:24:47
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif 

Next bout of Atlantic energy is defeated by the block. The 850's are warm, but still chilly for most as the SE element to the wind will draw in low level cold from the near continent, and another bitterly cold plunge for Eastern Europe.


D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gusty
20 January 2017 10:33:39


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017012006/gfsnh-0-156.png?6


first attempt fails, but warm southerly winds for us all


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Not really Beast. A southerly wind will be cold off a cold continent. It will take a long track SW'ly to turn things mild.


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Weathermac
20 January 2017 10:54:30


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017012006/gfsnh-0-156.png?6


first attempt fails, but warm southerly winds for us all


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


No warmth in those winds drawing air from a cold France .


 

tallyho_83
20 January 2017 10:57:50


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017012006/gfsnh-0-156.png?6


first attempt fails, but warm southerly winds for us all


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Warm southerly winds from France? - Been so cold there!!?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
20 January 2017 11:03:37


 


Warm southerly winds from France? - Been so cold there!!?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Still cold in the south and east:


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Phil G
20 January 2017 11:05:13
Mostly throughout, GFS 6z shows a stand off between high pressure to the east and low pressure in the Atlantic.
The jet is forecast to dig well south in the outlook, so we'll see if there is any pressure to the above to play out that way.
squish
20 January 2017 11:20:20

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017012000/cmanh-0-192.png?00



The Chinese 00z in case anyone missed it


 


and the Indian model


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwf/runs/2017012000/ncmrwfnh-0-168.png?00


 

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
squish
20 January 2017 11:28:10
Its interesting how the little cold pool develops to the SW/W in the next 48 hours

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2017/01/20/basis06/ukuk/t850/17012200_2006.gif 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
nsrobins
20 January 2017 11:52:25
If anyone can offer something inspiring regarding the extended outlook please feel free. Otherwise it all seems a bit non descript with a continuation of the stand-off we've seen for most of January.
No sign of an active Atlantic though which is something I suppose 😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Russwirral
20 January 2017 11:58:42

We should really be opening a new thread for the up coming Wintry spell on Sunday night


LOL 


Met Office Fax Synoptic Chart


 


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
20 January 2017 12:01:13


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2017012000/cmanh-0-192.png?00



The Chinese 00z in case anyone missed it


 


and the Indian model


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/ncmrwf/runs/2017012000/ncmrwfnh-0-168.png?00


 


Originally Posted by: squish 


 


I fancy a Chinese all of a sudden!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
20 January 2017 12:05:26


We should really be opening a new thread for the up coming Wintry spell on Sunday night


LOL 


Met Office Fax Synoptic Chart


 


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 



 


Although there does show some accumulations - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_72_uksnowdepth.png?cb=138 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
fairweather
20 January 2017 12:06:52

If anyone can offer something inspiring regarding the extended outlook please feel free. Otherwise it all seems a bit non descript with a continuation of the stand-off we've seen for most of January.
 ðŸ˜‰

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Well it's not easy going by the GFS 12z ensembles.  All 16 days have a snow row of precisely zero ! Only the odd 2 here and there for the Aberdeen and Liverpool as well.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Russwirral
20 January 2017 12:10:25


 


 



 


Although there does show some accumulations - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_72_uksnowdepth.png?cb=138 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Hold on to your hats


 


http://www.bbc.com/weather/ch62?day=2


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Gusty
20 January 2017 12:20:33

If anyone can offer something inspiring regarding the extended outlook please feel free. Otherwise it all seems a bit non descript with a continuation of the stand-off we've seen for most of January.
No sign of an active Atlantic though which is something I suppose 😉

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Nothing inspiring Neil but the GFS 06z doesn't bring the first atlantic front to the east of the UK until 29th January now. 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Saint Snow
20 January 2017 13:08:15

 


Hold on to your hats


 


http://www.bbc.com/weather/ch62?day=2


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


 


MBY gets an actual snowflake symbol for Sunday


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2638785


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
JACKO4EVER
20 January 2017 13:15:38
We can all only guess what FI really holds, but with southerly tracking jet and some very cold conditions to our east, a disjointed Atlantic and supposed projections of stratospheric warming, we would be very unlucky not to see a fairly decent cold spell later this winter. It may be close but no cigar this time round which would lead us to ask "just what do we have to do to have a decent winters spell in the U.K. nowadays?"
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 January 2017 13:26:05
What's wrong with more of the current weather? Horrendous air pollution aside, it's been beautifully sunny and still, sharp frosts every morning, and no rain or mud to contend with. I'd gladly take more of the same, with a bit less pollution.

All IMBY of course.

The long term signal for a return of westerlies is very consistent but I'm a little sceptical still given high pressure seems to be the form horse this winter.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Russwirral
20 January 2017 13:26:19


 


 


 


MBY gets an actual snowflake symbol for Sunday


http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2638785


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


"Image result for david attenborough


"ahh and here we see the rare and endangered BBC weather snow icon... not alot is know of this icon, but some suggest it does appear for other parts of the world, and in warmer climates too... This indeed, is a rare spectacle"


 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Solar Cycles
20 January 2017 13:35:57


We should really be opening a new thread for the up coming Wintry spell on Sunday night


LOL 


Met Office Fax Synoptic Chart


 


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Ulgrades down the line. 😜

Chunky Pea
20 January 2017 13:49:31

EC15 tending more 'meridional' with each run beyond day 10 with much upper-level diffluence on this side of the Atlantic and particularly to the NE, which will do nothing but hinder any chance of any real, vigorous zonality becoming established. Yawn.

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

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