Fascinating model watching is a poor substitute for actual fascinating weather. 

Still no surety at that any worthwhile 'zonality' will set in anytime soon the models this evening. Just various themes of the same old garbage.

So what happens if it cools again then??? How do you know the strat won't cool again?

As fascinating as watching paint dry....

Will the UK high pressure bounce to Greenland ?...er wait a minute... no.

Will the UK high pressure bounce to Scandinavia ?....er wait a minute..no.

It was novel for a while and the dry and sunny days are still welcome but the clock is ticking...February soon and some of us are getting impatient now Phil. 

METO has picked up on the stuborness of the HP block.

Period 26 Jan to Feb 2

 Temperatures should be around average to mild, although there is a low chance of the south-east keeping colder than average conditions.

At 144h  on GEFS there are still 50% of Ens where HP flow dominates particularly the SE of England By 240h however ,85% of ENS are mild south westerly/westerly flow.

Period Feb 3 -Feb 17th

It looks increasingly likely that an area of high pressure will begin to become dominant again towards the middle of February, bringing more settled conditions with the return of overnight frost and patches of fog, although the chance of very cold conditions developing is low.

It still looks as if METO thinks any Feb HP is going to be close to the UK near continent/ central Europe rather than Scandi/Iceland/Greenland ie northern blocking.

It can stay like it has been for the last four days, as far as I'm concerned. But I just know that we'll get anticyclonic gloom, mizzle and temps of 3ºC day and night the longer this goes on. Still… beats 'zonality'.

Check out just how cold it is across Europe to our south and east.  I cant see the cold leaving us anytime soon here in the south east.

I've been checking that out too this evening. During the course of the weekend some seriously low dewpoints are set to cross the Channel. Typically -6c to -7c. 

Wouldnt surprise me if we started to see snow grains, if it became cloudy, although the blue skies are great....

👍 agree with that. Part of me wants wind and rain for a change, but then the other part goes outside at midday and feels the cold fresh air on my face and sees the beautiful azure blue sky and smells the crisp fresh air and thinks ahh, let's see more of this in the model output. I think more MLB is the form horse, *MAYBE* until the end of January?

Have an  n-ICE day Saturday Steve?  Close for some...

Dusting of snow forecast for some N and W hills on day 3/4

Borrowong loosely from Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young:

If you can't have the weather you love, love the weather you have.

Typical deep FI fayre here - disruption undercutting and HLB of sorts, even if its not quite the money shot!

That trough disruption would only have to occur a couple of hundred miles further west and things would start getting pretty interesting!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif

Even as it is the run ends up on a rather intriguing note, not dissimilar to the GEFS perturbation I linked to from the 12Z.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

Jet forecast to go south, and by quite a long way as well. GFS was hinting at southerly tracking lows earlier.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn28814.gif

was hoping to see a bit more of that this evening but still plenty of time for that over the next 48-72hrs!

Yes, I was looking at that earlier and thinking it would not take much of an adjustment west or south to get the trough disruption over the British Isles.  There's a pocket of seriously cold air advecting west under the block

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011918/gfsnh-1-264.png?18

The 12z ECM run for my area has maxima below 5C and overnight frosts all the way out to Friday week: it's only on Day 10 that we get to 10C and that's a long way off.  Interestingly for London the Op had very little ensemble support on Day 10 - virtually a mild outlier and 5C above the mean.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

JUST FOR FUN: Deep into FI look north and to our east: - if the Atlantic does break through end of next week!?

So  the GFS ensembles are fairly set now to the 28th January when we get back into the massive uncertainty that we have had at this range all winter. This still leaves 4-6 weeks approx of a chance of a good cold spell with snow with no clear signals in favour or to the contrary really. I would prefer to see the range of 850 hPa values in FI from 0 to -10 rather than +5 to -5 as now because impending cold always seems to need a few extreme cold runs out there to kick start it!

Based on experience of this winter FI is still at T+144.

Atlantic now looks delayed until 27th January ?

Ignoring what is shown afterwards this chart is showing potential. WAA is more directly thrown north over our neck of the woods with a developing Scandi High/Arctic extension.

A continued westward correction, a few tweaks,a slight undercut, a slice of luck for once and things could start to look very different in a couple of days time. 

We shall see.

That is some block forecast out there to the east Steve, a wall north to south, its going to take some punch to get through. The Azores high wants to help out later on, but its suggested the Atlantic doesn't make it to the east of us which makes our space a bit of a battlefield between two pressure systems. Could be the southerly flow may inflate the high to east and looking for signals this may happen if low pressure can then drive through to the south.

What the 18z giveth, the 0z taketh away

But FI shows some promise 

GEFS has HP still influencing the SE on roughly half the ENS on the 25th,but as you say Atlantic flow winning through by the 27TH  with over 80% ENS S westerly/westerly by then.