Just noticed that Darren Bett is sitting on the fence a bit as regards to next week's outlook on tonight's Weather For The Week Ahead. That forecast is now going for a much better week for large part of England and Wales in the SE half of the UK, but has the NW half of the UK (which includes this part of the world here in Scotland) remaining unsettled. Furthermore, I watches one of Gavin P.'s videos this afternoon which shows one of the models (I think that this might be the ECMWF) going for a really unsettled end to next week which is roughly on a par with what we have just now, although next week might start off OK. The other model featured in that video (which would probably be the GFS) goes to things to be fairly mixed, though not as unsettled as what the other models is showing for the end of next week.

The outlook for this coming weekend has improved a bit from other ecent models as well as this band of rain which was due to come in during Saturday is not not expected to do so until the overnight period of Saturday night/Sunday morning. However, there is still a possible risk of showers on Sunday on that forecast, so it still wouldn't be completely dry here if that came off. Furthermore, that forecast then has a rather poor outlook for this part of the world on Monday as the next weather system comes in and brings yet more rain to this part of the world.

Down south though, it is a different story as the SE half of the country could see quite a nice day on Monday as a result of being much closer to an area of high pressure. The BBC are often dubbed as the 'English' Broadcasting Corporation on this side of the Border for various reasons which it would not be appropriate for me to go into on this forum, so it should be no surprise that they have come up with a forecast like that for Monday.

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Met have highs of 21C as I type for the weekend down here.. as they were also predicting all day yesterday the same temps I think it should be fairly average summer type weather. I expect temps might be at least a degree or 2 higher come the days.. 

The next week looks to be an archetype of the typical UK summer pattern.

Azores high to the SW ridging from time to time; westerlies; driest towards the South and East, wettest in the NW; temperatures ranging from 17C in the NW to 23C around London. Really couldn't be more average, which makes it quite interesting in a strange way.

I am still unconvinced though. Every time in the recent past the ensembles have clusters around the mean, something dramatic has suddenly come out of the woodwork.

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That would be great though, if this resulted in the Azores High building right across the country to produce quite a significant 2003-style heatwave, although I can't exactly see that happening, somehow.

 

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One doesn't need to go back to 2003 to find the last long-lasting UK-wide heatwave. Remember July 2013?

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<<< wears dreamy look and sighs theatrically >>>

 

Yup, a great spell, remembered most in our household because it was my wife's cousin's 40th birthday bash toward the end of the heatwave. Her partner (she divorced a few years ago) has a small cottage just outside Caernarfon and about 25 of us stayed the weekend at the Premier Inn. We set off as soon as I'd got home from work (early dart!) on the Friday and the thermometer in the car read 42c (I took a pic!). Drinks by the harbour followed by a meal, then more drinks until late. Next day was party day from 11am at the cottage. About 7pm the dads had taken all our kids and two kayaks down to the sea, and the temp was still 29c, the water actually mild. It was unbelievable to be swimming & kayaking in the sea still at 8pm and it being hot.

The pity that year is that the weather broke just as the kids (in E&W) broke up for the school holidays, and the rest of the summer was mostly bloody awful.

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IIRC the July '13 heatwave commenced here during the same weekend that Andy Murray won Wimbledon for the first time (6th & 7th July), by which time it had been pretty warm/hot in southern parts for a fair few days. This was about a week after the Scottish schools normally stop for the summer hols. The heatwave lasted here until the morning of 23rd July when it ended with a brief thunderstorm followed by a few hours of cloudy and pretty humid weather.

Rest of that summer was OK here. No more major heatwaves, but given the disaster of a summer we had in 2012 plus the five years prior to that, to me it was something of an improvement on those years. Mind you, it wouldn't have been hard to have got something better than 2012!

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yes, but I was only quoting that year as one particular example since that was when the current record was set for the hottest ever day anywhere in the UK, which is also the only occasion so far in recorded history, that there has been an official recorded temperature anywhere in the UK which has exceeded 100F.

Of course, all of that seems to be a very distant memory at the moment, given the manner in which this so-called 'summer' is going just now but if you want to quote 2013, then we can't also forget that the summer of 2014 was quite a decent one here as well, especially during July even though that wasn't quite up to the same standard as 2013 overall.

 

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Any dramatically hot spell looks to be hiding very deep in the woodwork indeed judging by this morning's ECM ensemble:

Going by that, there's just three individual days in the next fortnight where there's even a 50/1 chance of touching 30C.

On the other hand there's no more than a few showers around, so the outlook is really pleasant as far as I'm concerned. Cumulative rainfall:

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That cumulative rainfall chart looks rather similiar to the cumulative rainfall for today here (taking us well over the 200% of LTA mark for the month). Things still look a bit grim for northern parts. After a brief glimmer of hope yesterday things seem to have taken a turn for the worse with any pleasant weather restricted to the most southern parts of the UK.

Days like today are just vile.

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Yes. Apologies for the Southern-centric post, It's just that I'm fond of the ECM 50-run ensemble as a guide to what's both possible and probable, and unfortunately it's only available for one location in the Thames Valley.

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No need to apologise, your point is a very valid one. I think you may be in quite a favoured position over the next week or two. With high pressure trying to nose in from the SW 

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Met O 144 shows what could transpire come next Wednesday - a little more settled than some alternative offerings! The jet that bit further north.

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Yep, more for the thunderstorms that came on the backend of the heat.  

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No clues to changes in the GEFS ensemble pack. Standard UK summer blandness at present

Remarkably stable pattern at the moment. For the south east that means perfectly useable weather: 22-24 by day, 13-15 by night. Warm enough for outdoor activity, cool enough to sleep. In some ways really quite pleasant, but lacking much interest.

Last time I can remember a stable fortnight or more of this kind of weather in midsummer was in 2005, before that 1996 which in July and August was essentially 22-24C, sunny spells throughout, punctuated by a couple of brief hot spells. 1996 also had a hot June: perhaps a pattern match.

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And for the rest of us poor wee souls Tim? You can tell us, we'll cope 😂

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Continues to look fair next week. Quite warm in the south at times I would think. 

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Agree with the above, tentative signs of hope in the charts in the past few runs, with a slight increase in tendency for isobars to slacken and winds to draw slightly more to a southerly. High pressure cells seem to be a little keener to hang around the UK rather than stubbornly out to sea.

Still the odd Rogue front/depression knocking about, but with perhaps a little less frequency than weve had for the past week or so... so a good thing.

The GEFS also looking a little drier and a little warmer.

We shall see.

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Rancid, filthy and utterly abysmal as usual.

For us lucky Southerners I think the key to the difference between ok-ish and really rather nice will be sunshine hours and cloudiness, particularly the day/night timing of cloud bands.

Current forecasts suggesting London will limp along with a below average 5-7 hours per day for the next week, which is poor considering there are almost 16 hours available at this time of year.

Today was a taste: bright but largely cloudy.

When foreign visitors ask me what typical London weather is I answer cloudy but dry, and mild. Regardless of time of year.

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Not bad at all from UKMO it could be worse

GFS 12z rolling out on TWO and there's some heat in the air- at least in the south. The HP which has been repeatedly collapsing under the mP onslaught in previous runs seems a little more assertive in this run.

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Look at these spludge temperatures forecast as max for parts of Scotland on 9th- this is at 3pm.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_219_uk2mtmp.png?cb=64

In the second week of July, I would be really unhappy to be there in those conditions.

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Yes.  I posted an UKMO 144 yesterday, pointing out that it was actually ok or better for most.  Good to see some higher pressure and warmth maintained at least in England. Dangerous to look too far ahead though as the output is knife edge with the NW quadrant always less settled and if the dividing line slips this could leave only the SE in the fairer conditions, or perhaps only the continent...

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GEFS12z firming up on a warm spell (at least in the south) next week.

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