I think that's the key point to understand. The BBC showed the provisional June 2017 temperature and rainfall anomaly maps last night, where 5km gridpoint datasets for June are compared to the 30 year average (1981 to 2010) 5km datasets for the same location. Thus you are comparing apples with apples in order to say that for my location it was warmer than the average for my location and wetter than the average for my location last month.

Indeed!

Just noticed the GFSP06z goes up to 30C next Friday.

Thanks for bringing us back to the models, Brian!

Looks like a pretty good week ahead in the south but more changeable as you head further north.

GEFS suggests pretty decent first half of July in the south. GFS is quite bullish about 2m max temps this Fri / Sat approaching 30C in the south. That's about 8C above the average. 

Good analysis Brian. Looking pretty decent for the south. Settled and increasingly warm/hot as things stand. 🌞👍👌

Yes: we've got used to European holidays and adjusted our perception of what summer means. For me it's all about sunshine though: today was only 23C but felt very summery because of the strong sunshine. More of this please.

Exactly 👍🏼 

With the exceptions to a few lucky spots that have been warmer, it would be reasonable enough to say general temps across the south & southeast over past few days of 21-24C are summer like.

Another one to chuck in the bin with coldweatherfan or whatever he called himself....

Im not sure where people are reading it needs to be in the 30s to be summer either. Don't recall reading that. 

Today has been very warm here. I'm burnt again and the coming week looks very usable here again. Mind you the last week was too. That's despite now banned user claiming it would rain all week. 

Yes the pattern of recent days/week looks to be continuing - which is good news for southern parts and less good for northern ones.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

On the plus side Carol has just stated (re the north) "it won't be raining all the time though" 

That sounds like a typical Carol Kirkwood phrase to me.

All eyes are on mid-July onwards for me. The MetO have said consistently in their medium range forecasts for the last fortnight or so that they expect a more general improvement in most parts of the country around then. Although they are not certain of this by any means, whatever signal they for this they have been seeing must have been there consistently Fingers crossed!

With potentially an August 2003 corker thrown in for good measure. The 20c isotherm across the U.K. Temps probably hitting mid to high 30s !!!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2522.gif

I notice the 06z brings in some heat around the the T240 mark and quite a few other ensemble members show some more hot weather too.

If you like storms P11: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP11EU06_246_2.png BOOM

If you want to see some records being threatened P17: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU06_276_2.png SCHORCHIO

Still quite a long time away but will it become an emerging pattern in subsequent runs?

Much different in the long term on the 12z but an upgrade for Thursday, uppers are slightly warmer which should help the storms develop. The breakdown of this warm spell will begin with a shallow thundery low developing over the Bay of Biscay and it looks good for storm chances in Southern England during the evening.

I have only seen two distant thunderstorms this year in Southampton but I think Thursday represents my best chance of the Summer so far. 

Thomas Schafernacher talking about "Thundery Thursday" on tonight's forecast so the Met Office must be expecting some beefy showers in the offing. 

A rather better GFS 12z op run for the UK generally.