All I can see on the charts is a weak Azores High and Lows across Scotland??? I was getting excited with the comments yesterday thinking summer was coming north!!

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Don't know if you saw the ECM 12z op run from last night, but that is most certainly what it was indicating.

This morning's ECM is not so hot for us here, but I'm wondering if there is a slight degree of volativity in the models right right as there do appear to be some hints of a pattern change.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

A massive degree of volatility David. ECM has been flip flopping more than the other models this summer. I don't take much credence from ECM past 3-4 days. It's been unusually inconsistent for some time.

Uncertainty is the watch word.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The ecm means looks much better than the Op so I would expect an unsettled outlier . Very warm again by day 10 in the south

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

Gfs ensemble means look like a heatwave to me . Very warm high pressure close by to our east.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m13.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m14.html

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

This weeks written Monthly Outlook which is just been released on the BBC Weather website isn't looking so good for this part of the world, and that means that the omens are not looking so good now for my trip to the Scottish Borders later on this month, despite the models consistently pointing towards better weather coming up later on this month.

Even across the UK as a whole, that change to better weather is now delayed until the final week of the month (by which time, I will have returned home from that trip) and according to that forecast, this improvement still never quite manages to reach Scotland which means that the miserable summer which we have experienced up until now, looks set to continue for another month at least if that forecast is correct, whilst the south of England basks once again in that heatwave which is being predicted by the various models.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Best just to follow the models that we have access to and not to get too hooked up on what these monthly outlooks suggest, IMO.

In my experience, they are often of little use in terms of accuracy after the first week of the forecast.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

GFS was slow to roll out after about T+ 198; for the model that sticks its neck out to 384, that's a very unsure moment. Not convinced by the sudden eastward slip of the high in the last few days; it was so slow moving up until then.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Tells of the season so far that even this week. it's only Tuesday that looks all that poor down here in far-S. England with remaining days ranging from 'meh' to 'not bad'; Wednesday looks dry with good sunny spells and temps near or a little above average, Thursday similarly warm with a few scattered showers albeit potentially on the heavy side, Friday dry again but perhaps a fair bit of cloud so temps no better than average, the weekend warm but with a chance of some spells of rain or drizzle later on Sunday.

That being as per latest model consensus so it could well change a bit. Weekend's particularly uncertain with GFS allowing more ridge influence on Saturday than the other models.

Really though, I'm not that fussed given the signals for next week. By a week from today, the large-scale pattern is shaping up nicely on the evening runs;

Note the deep trough(s) in the vicinity of Canada/Greenland. These look to become the dominant cyclonic features in the N. Hemisphere, with the trough NE of the UK weakening in favour of ridges from the Azores (reaching there via the UK).

This is a classic response to a combination of AAM (atmospheric angular momentum) having climbed a bit in recent days and the movement of some cold Arctic air into Canada which spawns those deep troughs. It's a good thing AAM has risen because we'd otherwise be at the mercy of an unusually strong upper westerly flow aimed W-E or even more NW-SE across us. That's what the models were toying with before the AAM rise fed through (this, as usual, being underestimated or in the case of GFS completely overlooked until relatively short range).

Longer-term, GFS does what it always seems to do and drops AAM back down, resulting in the ridge pulling back west (dramatically so on this particular run). Theoretically, this should not actually transpire; AAM should drop quite a bit less as the atmospheric state is not conditioned to allow otherwise. Not only that but the typical effect of AAM drops become less troublesome for UK weather prospects going into August (well, at least a little). So with any luck we should have a better chance to hold onto well-placed areas of high pressure for widespread fine weather (rather than just in the south) than has been the case so far this summer.

So I am feeling optimistic about our prospects - but will be watching like a hawk in case any of those sneaky spanners rear their heads  

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Sounds good, James. The model runs this evening look more promising for northern parts going into next week than they have done at any point in the past month.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Tells of the season so far that even this week. it's only Tuesday that looks all that poor down here in far-S. England with remaining days ranging from 'meh' to 'not bad'; Wednesday looks dry with good sunny spells and temps near or a little above average, Thursday similarly warm with a few scattered showers albeit potentially on the heavy side, Friday dry again but perhaps a fair bit of cloud so temps no better than average, the weekend warm but with a chance of some spells of rain or drizzle later on Sunday.

That being as per latest model consensus so it could well change a bit. Weekend's particularly uncertain with GFS allowing more ridge influence on Saturday than the other models.

Really though, I'm not that fussed given the signals for next week. By a week from today, the large-scale pattern is shaping up nicely on the evening runs;

Note the deep trough(s) in the vicinity of Canada/Greenland. These look to become the dominant cyclonic features in the N. Hemisphere, with the trough NE of the UK weakening in favour of ridges from the Azores (reaching there via the UK).

This is a classic response to a combination of AAM (atmospheric angular momentum) having climbed a bit in recent days and the movement of some cold Arctic air into Canada which spawns those deep troughs. It's a good thing AAM has risen because we'd otherwise be at the mercy of an unusually strong upper westerly flow aimed W-E or even more NW-SE across us. That's what the models were toying with before the AAM rise fed through (this, as usual, being underestimated or in the case of GFS completely overlooked until relatively short range).

Longer-term, GFS does what it always seems to do and drops AAM back down, resulting in the ridge pulling back west (dramatically so on this particular run). Theoretically, this should not actually transpire; AAM should drop quite a bit less as the atmospheric state is not conditioned to allow otherwise. Not only that but the typical effect of AAM drops become less troublesome for UK weather prospects going into August (well, at least a little). So with any luck we should have a better chance to hold onto well-placed areas of high pressure for widespread fine weather (rather than just in the south) than has been the case so far this summer.

So I am feeling optimistic about our prospects - but will be watching like a hawk in case any of those sneaky spanners rear their heads  

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

^That is the 'Holy Grail' for those of us who like hot weather in summer: the Azores High and Scandi High linking up. It's a formidable block which can be very hard to shift.

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

Oh just look at that:

Textbook. Dreamy. The summer equivalent of a 1050hPa Greenland high in January.

Originally Posted by: TimS