It will be interesting to see what the odds are of this upcoming heatwave as seen by the models (especially by the GFS) lasting for long enough for the odd location in southern Scotland to be challenging the 30C mark at some point in in time. What got me thinking about that, is that here in Edinburgh, we had 28C during the very end of the spring, and that tells me that it shouldn't be completely impossible to get at 30C temperature during this summer even though our weather has been so dire during this summer so far.
I know that it is very rare for us to get 30C in this part of the world, but that has happened on the odd occasion in the past and the 28C which we had in May isn't that far short of that. Having said that, I think that it will take quite a massive heatwave to beat the 28C which we had in May, but I don't think that we can rule that out altogether if the models are right about this coming heatwave. Our highest temperature of the summer currently stands at 25C, and that is certainly beatable.
For that happen here, we need to have the right synoptics with the area of high pressure being virtually right on top of us and producing some really good weather, but just far enough to our east or south to cut of those cooling sea breezes and allow some really hot air to be brought up from the south. Whether that ends up happening is another matter but I fear that even if the GFS is right, that area of high pressure might just be a wee bit to the north of us if anything, which puts us at a greater risk of a sea breeze or easterly winds and resulting cooler temperatures here in the east coast, although it would probably still be sunny in the afternoons once any low cloud or haar was burned away, and I imagine that it could then be the west of Scotland which stood the best chance of seeing those really high temperatures which I described earlier.
Originally Posted by: johncs2016