i keep mistaking the -10 line for the -5 encouraging even if the op isn’t showing us in the freezer

Glad it's not just me then

Ian is right - if this easterly is to actually happen like some of the recent output suggests it’s not going to be an easy birth with the strong northern jet trying to prevent the bubble of high pressure from rooting itself to the NE. Once it’s established it can easily hold its own but getting there is the problem. 

Key date remains 5th Feb.

13 hit or go below -10c - some just for a few hours, some sub -13c for days.  Could go either way... overall odds are better for a freeze than they’ve been to date, but still more likely that we don’t.... i’d say a 1 in 3 chance of decent cold spell (for the south at least) and 1 in 10 for something truly special. If it doesn’t happen, the models won’t have “let us down”, as it has never been the most likely option.

Compared t+192 on this morning’s 0z to t+216 on yesterday’s.... Massive differences, as you’d expect at that range, so expect further significant changes over coming 24-48 hours... if there’s a mild set of run over the period, it no more means “all hope is lost” than a very cold set of runs over the same period means “it’s nailed on”.  We’ve collectively learnt not to do the latter, not so much the former!  I hope histrionics can be controlled!

Delicate situation continues and I do not think we will be wiser until the end of this week. High pressure building to the west of us will at least bring some drier weather to the UK. My concern is the jet stream is too strong and the shape of that high somehow being squeezed does not inspire me with confidence. I think the worse case is the following scenario into the following week:

Milder for the north and cooler for the South with occasional light snow flurries especially to the East. Gloomy and cold inland and best case scenario is snow from the east.

Somewhere I read that recently they had more snow in the dessert of Saudi Arabia. Given the general pattern this winter so far I am cautions about getting a proper cold pattern setting in. Such a shame we cannot get a proper Easterly especially as they had one of the coldest winters over Siberia.

Comes back to the discussions about the lack of easterlies nowadays. Can't remember when we had a real solid high and push of cold air towards us. What we are looking at now is a very weak high pressure with the right shape and if it can hold out long enough. Pitiful really!

What on earth has happened to the jetstream and weather pattern "denying" us the true easterly feature.

chin up we have the potential to get a stonking easterly, isn’t that the fun the chase??

The modelling of the PV is key for our cold to embed and atm the output puts its trajectory too far south and east for a cold spell to persist for any length of time.

The Op is a milder option though with some good clustering the ENS is pointing towards cold - particularly for the south east.

Too soon to pick the likely outcome methinks. 

Without making any claims as to how it might turn out the 00z 850 GFS ensembles are probably the coldest of the winter. There are about an equal number of runs below -10C ( ~6) as there are above -5C on around the 6th Feb. You don't often see that. There is at that point a high spread so lots of uncertainty but if you look at the first post of this thread a week ago you can see them then from Brian's post and there has clearly been a downward trend in that week.

While it seems that the "potential" Easterly may end up being nothing more than a day-long glancing blow over the SE (and even that is yet to be firmed up), I think of more interest is the potential of a plus-1050 mb high sitting right on top of the UK in a week's time. However, it is a long way off in forecasting terms but I wonder when was the last time any one of us recorded 1050 mb?

A Kent clipper would be very nice (but 'currently' unlikely). My focus is now switching to getting the garden ready in preparation for Spring / Summer. A period of fine weather thanks to low dewpoints drifting off the continent a la February 2003 would be just what's needed to start drying things up out there.

6z keeps the theme going of delivering Kent a glancing blow of -10 850Hpa's that would be cold enough, at least for a time, to deliver some snow showers before HP cuts off the feed. A 1040 + mb cell if settled in the right place could deliver some tasty inversions. 

I think the chances of an Easterly flow becoming established over the UK for any period of time are slim to none over the next 10 days at least, if not beyond. The northern arm of the jet has way too much energy and would likely push any attempt from the East away to our SE. All in all a rather cold but dry outlook on the whole in the reliable thereafter turning more unsettled from the West would be my punt.

Yes, very succinct.  I’ve been saying much the same thing - the high pressure to our south west is as much the issue because there is nowhere for the jet stream to go but to our north.  If it dives south it’s doing so too far east (snow for Greece & all that).

An easterly is not impossible but very hard to sustain a block in the right place.

-10*c uppers over southern spain.

Saharah into the freezer again...  This would be very newsworthy if it happened.

All time UK high pressure record under threat.

Signs that the Grand Old Duke is back?

 Good Afternoon to all. 12z Update added in.

Based on the GFS, UKMO, NAVGEM and ICON Models 00z runs today here is what I can say about it:

Particularly cold and wintry weather expected this week on Wednesday and Thursday with deep Low Pressure and heavy sleet and snow showers expected, especially further North and NW and in Central UK, West Country and in London and Eastern SE UK Wednesday night and Thursday.

It remains cold on Friday, and still the chance of a few wintry showers, turning cloudy and milder in the West and North evening and overnight- it spreads SE late on.

It will turn cold again on Saturday as a band of rain, with it chance of back end turn to a spell of sleet in South and SE in Morning then West to NW winds and Low Pressure diving SE across UK and it is to bring cold weather with wintry showers Saturday midday onwards.

It may well be quite cold on Sunday with a mix of rain sleet and hill snow showers with a polar trof moving South from the North, or a stronger North then NNE flow develop from Sunday afternoon and evening, increasing cold weather with frosty night and sleet and snow showers a possibillity. 12z GFS for both Sunday and Sunday including a few of the other Models show a very cold weekend Feb. 3rd and 4th, as in GFS very strong winds and low temperatures are shown, but UKMO eases a little for 12z Sunday but it has a much better cold pooling and reversal of winds and air temps look to favour wintry weather and very moderate SE then East winds, and some NE flow in it.

There is a increasing chance of Northerly to NE winds in the NE and E SE UK on Monday with Low Pressure over NW N and Central France with cold wintry showers possible in Essex and Kent, and NE England as well, and it could be a cloudy and cold frosty day, less cold in far Western UK though, where High Pressure and lighter winds shall be seen, UK linked to Norway SE and SW and Sweden Scandinavian High stretch to East and SE UK, with Azores high link to it.

There is plenty of SW to NE tracking Low Pressure over Greenland and Iceland area expected during this time period, with very cold zonal winds, cyclonic Low Pressure there.

The Wednesday and Thursday cold weather and UK Low Pressure is expected to affect France and Southern Europe and NE as well as Central and N. Europe particularly on Thursday and Friday.

After Monday the 5th, it could stay cold with another frost early and late likely on Tuesday, with a further wave of NW SE tracking Short wave  RPM Polar feature,  milder later on Wednesday with High Pressure coming in from the SW.

.  A mixed situation, there could be sleet and snow showers in London this Thursday and again Sunday PM of Feb. 4th and during Monday 5th Feb. as cold NE winds might affect Eastern Central and SE UK.

. Yeah, a cold and wintry end to this January so I am still excited. Then maybe a Scandinavian NW Europe brief cold NE flow, aka the aforementioned Buchan Spell!!.

Post edited to reflect the GFS, UKMO, ICON and NAVGEM, and GEM Model 12z run data.

I see what you are getting at but I think most Coldies would take an ensemble set like that for the start of February if offered it at the start of winter. Maybe no Beast but snow chances for the first half of the month.

Lots of scatter in there, all most anything is possible after the first couple of days of Feb.  

I've lost the plot. I'm not sure what to look out for now in the up and comming 12z.

Any ideas?