Can we? Really? Please elaborate (remembering this is a model output discussion not silly mind games and melodrama thread).

12z SW coastal Holland ensembles.

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

Further evidence that the chances of a strong easterly are remote.  Very few ice day runs even on the other side of the N Sea.

Looking like a fairly average period of weather in early February on balance. Time for things to change, but I hear a clock ticking....

I don't think one often can learn a lot from the ECM mean chart as far ahead as T+240. It's almost always a flabby thing, no doubt usually disguising a wide range of different ensemble members. In this case the mean doesn't look too bad to me from a cold lover's point of view, with the 850mb -5C isotherm running from about the Wash to Southampton and the centre of the high pressure away to our west. Since that's the mean, a fair number of ensemble members will almost certainly be substantially colder (suggesting the high being centred further to the N or NE). By the same token, a fair number will be substantially milder than the mean, of course. But with the London mean 850mb temperature being somewhere around -6C, I wouldn't have thought it to be very different from the GFS ensemble's mean. One thing that does look fairly certain from the mean chart is that the pressure over the UK will be pretty high, so the outcome looks unlikely to be zonal.

Of course if we could only see the individual ECMWF ensemble members, we'd have a much better feel for things. It's always struck me as a little odd that the GFS, the model from the country where the profit motive is supposed to reign, should have all its results freely available, while the European model doesn't.

The "Windrichting (°)" chart, which I take it is the wind direction, is interesting. By about 8 days out the ensemble wind directions seem to be spread pretty equally over the whole 360°! For what it's worth, the operational and control runs both have roughly NEly winds in their latter stages but, as you say, the temperature chart isn't very inspiring. Switching to their equivalent chart for the GFS, that looks rather colder than the ECMWF.

Yes The GEFS are slightly more encouraging but both suites are prone to flips at a range of 6 days plus. If its going to happen on 6th Feb, then Thursday evening is around the crunch time, possibly later.

Edit - I see no reason to be optimistic about this prospect.  The cold over the States and Canada does us no favours.  Only posting this evening as it gives me a break from the 'tyranny of work.'

Nothing is guaranteed but opportunities for easterly outbreaks are, with these synoptics, increased and the models have picked upon this.

Your question is very relevant. 

The jet direction over the North Atlantic, is not just related to the position of the Azores High but to its behaviour around the whole of the N. Hemisphere and decades ago, the number of Rossby waves was identified by some climate scientists as being highly correlated with the general synoptics at our general location.

The relevant questions for the longer periods of time you identify, might well be -

          What causes the positional changes to the Azores High?

and

          What causes the changes to the numbers of Rossby waves?

and...........

Jumping the gun there methinks, Beast. Yes, it isn't the holy grail but we've seen worse charts in FI at times this winter which thankfully have not verified.

If we are to get a cold spell in February, my feeling is we will have to be patient.

Looks impressive!

polar bear impressive??

OK...lets all get together and give one last push for the easterly. (I have just about enough energy left) 

T +168 !

reverse psychology/I told you so posts are fairly annoying 

👍😂 January 28th last time I checked, so no February until Thursday at the earliest. I am not convinced we will get a full blown easterly (as much as I would love one), however, I agree Michael that it's far too early to write of winter. No real signs of spring on offer as far as I can see in the main model output.....

Anyone who thinks that winter is over at this point in the season is taking the same gamble that came back to haunt our learned colleague, Andy Woodcock, back in 2005.

The model output generally this winter so far has been as erractic as I can recall it being during any winter during the time I've been a member of this forum, and that's saying something.

For some reason it looks perfect on Meteociel with an upper high to support the surface high.  As for the shape, that's actually what you want to see - a rounder high pressure cell wouldn't deliver the clean easterly.

Still none the wiser this morning. Neither the GFS or ECM op runs really deliver but there is the highest number of -10C runs on the ensemble so far if I'm not mistaken, with several full blown easterlies.

Londom snow row total is 101 which is also the highest I've seen. 

Yes difficult to see how this can become a full blown easterly within 10-12 days , there is too much shoulder going on from the jet and as long as that remains the case the core of heights for us will be the displaced AH.