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Thought I'd sign off today with an EPS mean for next Fri that's about as good as I could have hoped for as it shows a clear signal for the trough to make it a good way across the Mediterranean which is what we need to keep that cold feed going through to the weekend .
Seeing that more substantial shortwave low near Iceland on the 18z GFS but the jet profile has hardly changed and ECM had a similar solution on the 12z earlier, so it's not of much concern in isolation. It may drop down around Wed-Thu time having done a large anticyclonic loop but again, that would be in keeping with the ECM 12z in which it descends as a very slack feature and adds to the instability within the deep cold pool. In other words it becomes a very long-winded snow maker!
What's that in the N Sea?
GFS has sent a shortwave up to Iceland which may throw a spanner in the works. Very different up in that area even by T90.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
I don't think that is a problem as same on 12z , just a little later. Cold pool a tad further south, but will swing up and over UK, and may delay any breakdown from the SW . Just guessing at this stage....
Originally Posted by: SJV
The same feature picked up on by the WRF that I posted a little earlier. A very small closed low that scoots across from Norway and hits the NE coast of England. GFS sends it straight through into the Wales too!
Pressure 40mb lower over Greenland on the 18Z GFS than the 12Z. Hoping it has just gone off on one and not about to start the biggest backtrack in modelling history...
Greenie high recovers, Rob.
And yes several models picking up the feature in the N Sea for Tues
? Its 15 mb higher at +126
Originally Posted by: squish
Yes it zips through pretty quickly and heads for the north pole, then as Stormchaser says it will just loop round the block... sorry for the panic everyone
Yep seen enough of GFS. Again it’s noise and the very slight S shift and delay is not an issue IMO. If anything the cold pool might be even colder when it properly arrives behind the area of snow on Tues.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Ah c'mon Neil, you chancer! You'll see it through to the bitter end.
This is a sound run with mere minor tweaks and variations. Its coming for SURE
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
-10 isotherm arrives at T78. The train is only coming when you can see the train.... and I think I can just see it in the distance.
I think I can see you've tied a mild-ramper tied to the track, in the middle distance.
I think they are saying the train is never going to get here...
Nice.
Just look at those low heights in the cold flow centred right over the British Isles... beautiful
Can't complain if this came about:
-15@ 850 hpa too!
Todays charts are even better than may favourite of all time ( foot of snow at sea level in South Devon Jan 1st 1979)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/noaa/NOAA_1_1978123106_1.png
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018022218/gfsnh-0-156.png?18
Nationwide snow, more or less.
Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (commas' not being my area) public agencies and major private infrastructure will begin a daily briefing cycle as of tomorrow. To revisit previous post, latest MR output (MOG) resolving to further mute ‘breakdown€™ scenario; with continental blocking signal reinforcing through well into March. Atlantic incursions are expected with southerly deflection; considerable potential for extensive and disruptive snowfall as these air masses interact. Short term, ECM:UKMO evolution favoured and considered likeliest; corresponds well with other products and illustrates fair consistency.
Curtesy of NWA post from SB who works at the MET
Curtesy of NW
A post from SB who works at the MET
Not often you see snow like this in the Landes and Gascony, or indeed lowland Languedoc:
Heavy snow into the South too, and windy, widely sub zero. Travel chaos!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=2