theweatheroutlook

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Gusty
22 February 2018 22:49:32


Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (commas' not being my area) public agencies and major private infrastructure will begin a daily briefing cycle as of tomorrow. To revisit previous post, latest MR output (MOG) resolving to further mute ‘breakdown€™ scenario; with continental blocking signal reinforcing through well into March. Atlantic incursions are expected with southerly deflection; considerable potential for extensive and disruptive snowfall as these air masses interact. Short term, ECM:UKMO evolution favoured and considered likeliest; corresponds well with other products and illustrates fair consistency.

















Curtesy of NW


A post from SB who works at the MET 

















 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Porn. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2018 22:53:48
And the end of the 18z run is potentially insane in a US-style way, with what looks like a rapid break from sub-zero to mid teens. That's the dream start to March: deep winter followed within hours by full on spring.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
SJV
22 February 2018 22:54:37

Just speechless about that run. Can't even post an amusing reaction gif about it - just seems insulting 


For those in the know, what are the chances of the low pressure to the south interacting with our cold air like this? I hope it doesn't sinksouth and deliver to France only this time next week. We are certain of the cold but this nationwide blizzard is over a week away.

bowser
22 February 2018 22:55:22
Making the same deliberations about travelling south to Gloucester. Wondering if I'll get back up to Aberdeen on the Thursday morning!! It's the airports im more concerned about. Can't complain though!!
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2018 22:58:07


Just speechless about that run. Can't even post an amusing reaction gif about it - just seems insulting 


For those in the know, what are the chances of the low pressure to the south interacting with our cold air like this? I hope it doesn't sinksouth and deliver to France only this time next week. We are certain of the cold but this nationwide blizzard is over a week away.


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Im starting to look at my calendar and ponder. School assembly presentation next Thursday: will school be closed? Pitch in Cheshire on Friday: will the trains be running. Etc. That's the funny thing with model watching. While it's a week or more off it remains exciting and abstract. Once it gets close it becomes a practical problem in a way extreme summer heatwaves never do.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
22 February 2018 23:03:27

Wow. Just a hundred miles or so away from a really nice Spanish plume at 348 hours. If that shifts west slightly, we could get winter to summer synoptics in the space of a couple of days.



 


Ok, I'll get my coat! 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2018 23:04:41
18z Op a warm outlier at 48 hrs
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Chiltern Blizzard
22 February 2018 23:10:00
Words fail me...

Cold arrives at t+78... Still can’t bring myself to say this is nailed on and still have nagging doubts that something will crop up at the last minute to heavily dilute an exceptional cold spell (ie Feb 1991) into a more mundane affair (ie Feb 2005), though I think we’re 90% likely of something more akin (or just perhaps even greater) to the former now, IMBY at least. If charts show no back-tracking by tomorrow’s 12z, then I’ll give in and accept that this time, for the first time in 30+ years, a proper easterly cold spell is nailed on, and tell the kids they’re about to experience winter like they’ve never done before!
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Chiltern Blizzard
22 February 2018 23:10:33
Words fail me...

Cold arrives at t+78... Still can’t bring myself to say this is nailed on and still have nagging doubts that something will crop up at the last minute to heavily dilute an exceptional cold spell (ie Feb 1991) into a more mundane affair (ie Feb 2005), though I think we’re 90% likely of something more akin (or just perhaps even greater) to the former now, IMBY at least. If charts show no back-tracking by tomorrow’s 12z, then I’ll give in and accept that this time, for the first time in 30+ years, a proper easterly cold spell is nailed on, and tell the kids they’re about to experience winter like they’ve never done before!
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Joe Bloggs
22 February 2018 23:13:56

P17 from the 18z GEFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU18_114_1.png


I hope the op doesn’t follow this tomorrow morning or there’ll be handbags at dawn. ;-)


Everything crossed. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
ballamar
22 February 2018 23:16:49


P17 from the 18z GEFS http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU18_114_1.png


I hope the op doesn’t follow this tomorrow morning or there’ll be handbags at dawn. ;-)


Everything crossed. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


although would be kind of amusing!

Norseman
22 February 2018 23:17:48

Words fail me...

Cold arrives at t+78... Still can’t bring myself to say this is nailed on and still have nagging doubts that something will crop up at the last minute to heavily dilute an exceptional cold spell (ie Feb 1991) into a more mundane affair (ie Feb 2005), though I think we’re 90% likely of something more akin (or just perhaps even greater) to the former now, IMBY at least. If charts show no back-tracking by tomorrow’s 12z, then I’ll give in and accept that this time, for the first time in 30+ years, a proper easterly cold spell is nailed on, and tell the kids they’re about to experience winter like they’ve never done before!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Was Feb 1991 not quite a short affair? This looks like it may be sustained if today's models are correct.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2018 23:19:00
Op a warm outlier from 2 March onwards
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
SJV
22 February 2018 23:20:02
Have a feeling tomorrow's output will be crucial 😉
moomin75
22 February 2018 23:20:16

Op a warm outlier from 2 March onwards

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Seriously??? 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
SJV
22 February 2018 23:21:06

Op a warm outlier from 2 March onwards

Originally Posted by: TimS 


I take it that the mean will have that LP further south then? Wouldn't surprise me.

SJV
22 February 2018 23:22:29

I correct myself the mean looks excellent.


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2018 23:23:04


 


Seriously??? 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Well, warmer than the ENS mean. Probably snowier too though. Control run is the coldest at surface (-15C in London on 5 March) which probably means snowiest.


ENS mean has 4 ice days in London next week

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Joe Bloggs
22 February 2018 23:23:07


 


 


although would be kind of amusing!


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


It would still be cold, although the uppers are much higher than the other perturbations. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU18_114_2.png Even if this verified it could still be potentially very snowy by the end of the week. It would be a disappointing outcome if most of the week was totally dry, given the developments today. The majority of the GEFS are similar to the op. Here’s the panel for Tuesday 12z: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU18_114_1.png You’ll notice a couple of the perts. have HP perilously close to the north, pushing the cold uppers over France nearly bypassing us completely. 


The only way I could see this spell ruined now would be a last minute evolution to a high pressure cell sitting over Scotland, but that isn’t a likely evolution based on the majority of the GEFS - it’s a very small cluster. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
squish
22 February 2018 23:23:35
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2018022218/navgemnh-0-150.png?23-00 

Stunning 18z NAVGEM

Full house tonight.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Jiries
22 February 2018 23:24:30

Excellent reading today in here and very happy with the outcome that I had longed waited for since Feb 1991 in term of proper subzero temps for days.  Will start recording temps again for this occasion from Sunday.   I am sure windchill factor can hit -20C or so this time as it was -17C in Feb 1991.

ballamar
22 February 2018 23:25:00
People are mocking some of the warnings, think there should be an official advanced warning. This could be a very real threat this spell
westv
22 February 2018 23:25:07

Have a feeling tomorrow's output will be crucial ;)

Originally Posted by: SJV 


How many times have we read that line over the years?!

At least it will be mild!
Chiltern Blizzard
22 February 2018 23:26:17


 


Was Feb 1991 not quite a short affair? This looks like it may be sustained if today's models are correct.


Originally Posted by: Norseman 


Well, 1991 had 6 days of sub -10c air, bottoming out at -18c at its coldest point I believe.. and then milder.  This spell may go on a lot longer (though perhaps not with quite that consistency) but that’s too far out for me to consider seriously.  

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
SJV
22 February 2018 23:27:00


 


It would still be cold, although the uppers are much higher than the other perturbations. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU18_114_2.png Even if this verified it could still be potentially very snowy by the end of the week. It would be a disappointing outcome if most of the week was totally dry, given the developments today. The majority of the GEFS are similar to the op. Here’s the panel for Tuesday 12z: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU18_114_1.png


The only way I could see this spell ruined now would be a last minute evolution to a high pressure cell sitting over Scotland, but that isn’t a likely evolution based on the majority of the GEFS - it’s a very small cluster. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Which perturbations go for that minority scenario, Joe? Out of morbid curiosity and furthering my understanding.


 



 


How many times have we read that line over the years?!


Originally Posted by: westv 


That's the joke 

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