theweatheroutlook

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The Beast from the East
01 August 2018 18:33:39

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021


UKMO seems to be on its own and does not develop the low, the next day should be very hot


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2018 18:34:42


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0


This is the moment of divergence. Does the trough move across and introduce a cooler flow from the north or does it stay away long enough to keep the drag up from France


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Or dies it do what it often did in May and June, and flatten, so the peak is less peaky but the cool down is short lived and minor.


Not much sign of this on the ensembles yet - a pronounced lack of rewarming after the cool down, but I wouldn’t discount it yet.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
soperman
01 August 2018 20:01:49

If you want your summer to continue warm and hot ECM is your baby. Tantalizing 240 to boot!


 

White Meadows
01 August 2018 20:07:23


If you want your summer to continue warm and hot ECM is your baby. Tantalizing 240 to boot!


 


Originally Posted by: soperman 

This is true. A little more mobile for Scotland middle of next week before yet another build of high pressure from the SW

golfingmad
01 August 2018 20:24:39


This is true. A little more mobile for Scotland middle of next week before yet another build of high pressure from the SW


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Agreed. There is only a minor blip mid-term, before high pressure re-establishes at least over the southern half of the British Isles. Not hot in the south, but certainly warm or very warm at times.


I think this is the key to August. A more familiar set-up of the Azores high ridging over the south, certainly no SW/NE block. Good for the south but perhaps not so good elsewhere.

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Bolty
01 August 2018 21:46:37

I don't think the models are all that bad to be honest. Not as good as May, June and July no, but miles better than the charts we've seen in many recent Augusts. I think expecting the heat and dryness of late to last a full four months is a bit too much really.

Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2018 21:56:50


I don't think the models are all that bad to be honest. Not as good as May, June and July no, but miles better than the charts we've seen in many recent Augusts. I think expecting the heat and dryness of late to last a full four months is a bit too much really.


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Quite. Unless there has been a recent significant shift in the climatological norm, this may be the last long hot dry summer I see in my lifetime. I am therefore endeavouring to enjoy every moment.

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Sevendust
02 August 2018 05:41:24


 


Quite. Unless there has been a recent significant shift in the climatological norm, this may be the last long hot dry summer I see in my lifetime. I am therefore endeavouring to enjoy every moment.


Originally Posted by: RobN 

Crepuscular Ray
02 August 2018 06:46:20
ECM and GFS now have a messy, flabby Low moving slowly east over the UK all next week. August has seen an end to the summery warm weather up here and it's 240 hrs before weak ridging occurs again. Looks like more typical Lakes weather for me next week.
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Rob K
02 August 2018 06:51:38
The GFS ensembles have been pretty consistent for a while now with a big crash to slightly below average conditions occurring on August 8. It looks like a long way back to any “proper” heat from there despite the continued bullishness of the Met Office long-ranger, which seems to have been unchanged for ages now. I expect that to be updated soon to indicate a more average north-south split kind of August with temperatures close to the norm.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
andy-manc
02 August 2018 06:58:59

My birthday is on August 8th and it always feels to me like around then is often the point of change, at least up here. Once my birthday is over, it's autumn to me!

Rob K
02 August 2018 07:09:38
UKMO and ECM both suggesting a pretty autumnal spell next week once again. We seem to have gone from a pattern where the models consistently underestimated the strength of blocking to one where they have been overestimating it, and then been caught out by the strength of troughing instead.

Even just a few days ago the consensus was for largely high pressure across the UK next week and now it looks as if low pressure will be in charge from Wednesday. At least it looks as if it will be nice and settled for my MTB race on Sunday, and not too hot.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
02 August 2018 07:24:42

UKMO and ECM both suggesting a pretty autumnal spell next week once again. We seem to have gone from a pattern where the models consistently underestimated the strength of blocking to one where they have been overestimating it, and then been caught out by the strength of troughing instead.

Even just a few days ago the consensus was for largely high pressure across the UK next week and now it looks as if low pressure will be in charge from Wednesday. At least it looks as if it will be nice and settled for my MTB race on Sunday, and not too hot.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I think this is a pessimistic view on things particularly regarding the South,  forgetting UKMO which at 144 at least has been all over the place recently.  The big two have heatwave conditions until Tuesday 30c each day for the South and EA. then a couple of more unsettled days then the Azores high builds in. How far north the Azores gets is in doubt but for now at least the South looks set for another settled spell starting about the 10th .


Basically the unsettled spell for the South looks to be 1 or 2 days at most.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
danm
  • danm
  • Advanced Member
02 August 2018 07:28:42


 


 


I think this is a pessimistic view on things particularly regarding the South,  forgetting UKMO which at 144 at least has been all over the place recently.  The big two have heatwave conditions until Tuesday 30c each day for the South and EA. then a couple of more unsettled days then the Azores high builds in. How far north the Azores gets is in doubt but for now at least the South looks set for another settled spell starting about the 10th .


Basically the unsettled spell for the South looks to be 1 or 2 days at most.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


That does seem to tie in with the BBC long range forecast yesterday - hot in the south/warm in the north until early next week, cooler midweek, then signs of it getting warmer again later next week. 


Usual caveats apply to that though as I haven’t actually looked at the runs this morning. 

Home: London (NE)
Work: London (Central)
doctormog
02 August 2018 07:37:19
I think Rob’s summay seems pretty accurate? It looks very warm or hot for a few days in the south and then it cools down a bit but in the the longer term the trend is and has been for a few days for more average conditions from around the 8th. Today may, rather depressingly, be the last truly warm day of the summer up here and no I am not being melodramatic.

Of course this does not mean that there will not be warmer than average periods just that the weather outlook is less exceptional that it has been. Things look a bit more mobile and less high pressure dominated, as it has been for a little while now. “Normal” may be a good summary of the outlook after the next few days. I say normal rather than “average” as I suspect that temperatures may be a little above, especially in the south, even after the next few days.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Hippydave
02 August 2018 07:48:02
I'd agree with Rob/Michael - a gradual return to a more typical summer set up after a few more hot days in the South is currently favoured. Given the change is in FI there is though still a chance of the models overplaying the trough and things being more settled.

I imagine even with the LP we'd be talking showers rather than non stop rain so not a horror show, just not prolonged heat and dryness.
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
David M Porter
02 August 2018 08:24:05

In my view, the one thing I have noticed about the model output in general this summer is that it has often been wise not to place too much faith in any solutions shown for more than a week ahead. Despite the dominance of high pressure, for some reason they seem to have struggled for much of the time beyond a week ahead.


For instance, there was one point in late June when the models were indicating that the heatwave that began in the final week of that month would be broken by a thundery low approaching from France right at the beginning of July; an idea that was then quickly dropped.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
sizzle
02 August 2018 08:26:53

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html    according to terry scholey.its going to be another good month

superteacher
02 August 2018 09:32:20
Hoping the models are well and truly on the wrong path next week and that they are totally overplaying the LP. Even the heat for Monday and Tuesday looks suspect now.
15 years since our last proper decent August. Surely that run has to end?
richardabdn
02 August 2018 09:41:28

I think Rob’s summay seems pretty accurate? It looks very warm or hot for a few days in the south and then it cools down a bit but in the the longer term the trend is and has been for a few days for more average conditions from around the 8th. Today may, rather depressingly, be the last truly warm day of the summer up here and no I am not being melodramatic.

Of course this does not mean that there will not be warmer than average periods just that the weather outlook is less exceptional that it has been. Things look a bit more mobile and less high pressure dominated, as it has been for a little while now. “Normal” may be a good summary of the outlook after the next few days. I say normal rather than “average” as I suspect that temperatures may be a little above, especially in the south, even after the next few days.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Normal is not a good description of the outlook. Vile would be more apt.


Even by the standards of the last 11 years the outlook is grim for NE Scotland. Just day after day of cloud and rain. Impossible to identify even one vaguely decent day. Sunday is now looking a complete washout, not that it ever looked that good.


Foul charts like this showing NE Scotland racking up the highest rain totals, over the next week, when we are supposed to be a rain shadow area make me livid but this is the sort of nonsense we have had to endure repeatedly since 2007 as our summer climate turns into that of NW Scotland.


https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2018/08/02/basis00/ukuk/rsum/18080900_0200.gif 


That is on top of the second half of July seeing twice the average rainfall and few dry days. The second half of summer is shaping up to be every bit as exceptional as the first but this time for all the wrong reasons.


 

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
02 August 2018 10:09:11


My birthday is on August 8th and it always feels to me like around then is often the point of change, at least up here. Once my birthday is over, it's autumn to me!


Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

That’s my daughter’s birthday too. It rained last year but she has had some very warm, sunny birthdays!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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The Beast from the East
02 August 2018 10:33:58

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=1


Not far off a burst of severe heat before the agreed consensus of a cool down. Perhaps the Azores will push again later


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
02 August 2018 10:37:24

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=1&carte=1


Some extreme heat across the NW of North America again

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
02 August 2018 10:48:27

lets hope the Greenland block from the 06z can last all the way to December

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
02 August 2018 11:20:43
Horrible 6Z GFS run that would write off the bulk of August even for the south. Hopefully a wobble and not the start of another downwards trend.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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