For now at least, but don't rule out renewed heat later in the month.

 

The 6Z run keeps pressure a little higher across the country, making less of the midweek low. Continuing the trend - the 0Z was generally more of a HP dominated run than many of late.

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Hello... summer fighting back? 

 

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Same here - off to Loch Lomond for a week.  We’re packing as if it were a ‘southern’ Autumn!

Having said that - sat here, dripping in sweat, we are quite looking forward to it!

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Nice to see summer back in track after a dismal Sunday last weekend followed by a few cooler days.
06z ensembles hint of another blast of heat some time after 18th🔥🔥 but in the land of la la for now.

A watershed moment - the hot outliers have vanished on the 6z GEFS, bringing near-certainty to next week's marked cooldown.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0&ext=1&type=3 

This ties in with what EPS has been showing for a while:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature 

Both EPS and GEFS show a gradual warming trend through the middle of August, but nothing exceptional. And by then, the clock's ticking on summer 2018... heat fans would be best advised to make the most of the next few days!

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I think most heat fans would be more than happy with a warm up after the cooler spell to the mid 20s. We’ve already had 16 days of 30c+ with potentially another 4 more days between now and Tuesday! Can’t complain. 

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There are some hot outliers on the 850 charts but they clearly aren't that hot at the ground!

 

 

High pressure and low to mid 20s as shown on the operational would do me very nicely. Summery enough to be usable for summer, not too hot to go back to work.

 

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Nice try, but some members have an uptrend towards 19th, three of them into extreme territory. 

And that’s even before September which can too have marked hot spells. 2016 is a recent example, which reached 34 degrees in places.

 

Those 850s aren't extreme btw, 17C in mid August is like -11C in mid February - around 8C away from average. Besides, 3 out of 22 isn't  exactly a strong signal for a return of very warm or hot conditions.

By late August the sun loses it's punchiness down here and although it can still be hot, it's not the same quality of heat that you get in the core of summer - as I'm sure you know. It'd be a bit like getting a -5C overnight temperature in April, it doesn't have the same longevity as it would in midwinter.

Again, if you're a summer heat fan (as you clearly are), make the most of the next few days!

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Yes you are in for a change Gusty, it's cloudy up here every day with the odd blue patch. Drizzly showers at times I'd say your prediction is about right. 19 in Keswick and Glasgow and 21 in Edinburgh. We don't do blue skies, can't remember when I last saw a cloudless day!

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This feels more like a post to comfort yourself - yes, the sun is much less strong by late August but a hot day is a hot day and I'm sure you'd still be sweating like a pig and moaning about how hot it is if it was 33C in late August just as much as if it was 33C now.

Don't kid yourself. 

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An ideal end to this summer would involve a hot few days now, then a cool down to a couple of weeks of nice sunny and pleasantly warm weather, followed right at the end of August or ideally 1st September by a sudden final heatwave to capture a yearly max and September record of 36C.

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I think a hot day in August is more like a cold day in mid February and that didn't feel too warm this year!

An ideal end to summer for me would be to piece together more than 2 days of sunny days because that's not happened for a good few weeks. At least a week of pretty much solid sun. Not looking likely though.

Hoping to cling onto 3rd in KevBrads all important Manchester summer indices table . Next week may spoil that

The only thing to take from the past 3 weeks or so is the temperatures have held up really well considering. We would usually be down to about 15C on some of these days but most days have been 22C+

No, it really isn't. Thankfully, as a heat-hater, I can say with 100% certainty that after mid-August the quality of the heat changes, as you no longer have that searing effect from the sun. That, to me at least, makes a massive difference in terms of the perception of heat.

It's the same way that at the end of February, even if it's -3C outside, you can feel the wamrth starting to come from the sun (as opposed to say mid-December, when it's just a yellow thing in the sky).

Assuming everything else was equal (cloud amounts, dewpoint, wind), I'd far rather have 33C in late August than 33C in early July, for example. And as I've said, that's because a) the sun's rays are shining from a noticeably lower angle and b) the day is over two hours  shorter.

That said, I don't care too much at the moment. I've got a week off work and I have a/c indoors - I can manage well enough, although the gardening will have to wait until midweek, when it's a bit cooler!

(Fun fact: from mid-June to mid-July, IMBY the sun's altitude goes from 62° to 60°. You won't notice that. From mid-July to now it goes from 60° to 56° - twice as much difference in half the time. And by mid-August, less time still, it'll be 52°. And yes, that *does* make a difference, as does the 3 minutes of daylight a day that we're now losing. No matter how warm it gets, we're inexorably moving towards autumn.)

 

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True.

I know that this is a bit off topic (sorry about that) and and that a more appropriate place for this would actually be in somewhere like the moaning thread. However, it is coming up to 5pm as I write and yet, we have only had 12 minutes of recorded sunshine all day today at Edinburgh Gogarbank as at 4pm this afternoon. In fact, we have had a total of just 2.4 hours of the course of this month so far which surely, has to make this one of the dullest starts to any summer month which we have ever had in this part of the world.

The only thing which I can say that it surely can only get better from here although whether or not this happens over the coming weekend is a different story. Hopefully, we will get a little bit more sunshine over the weekend, but I wouldn't exactly be waging any major bets on that actually happening.

 

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I think away from the south east, most of us have suffered from varying amounts of cloud in the past few weeks. It has been the main feature of our weather. Most days have just been endless grey cloud, particularly during the day. I've found most of the sunshine has been in the evening to be honest which in the warm temperatures, is quite pleasant to walk the dog. I feel like today is going to go that way too.

We still haven't had an awful lot of rain though aside from the heavy showers Saturday and particularly Sunday morning. More very light showers and drizzle. I'm sure that will all change soon though from what people are saying in here about next week! :(

12Z GFS spins up a potent little low which originates as a "heat low" over France and winds itself up over East Anglia at the end of next week.

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Looks like the 12z GFS has "gone off on one" - it sharpens next week's upper trough enough to form a cut-off low over the UK which, allied to a roaring jet, spins up a vicious little low near East Anglia.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3043/162-289UK_anr6.GIF

It's a week away, though, so is obviously unlikely to come off as shown!

EDIT: And as Rob notes, the low has its genesis over France. The sharper upper trough sets up more of a temperature contrast and bam! Fireworks.

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I'd give that about a 5% chance of happening.  odds on Azores building in look to be improving 

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Bonkers

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Chances of that feature even existing on the next op run?

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Has happened before, its the set-up to produce the East Anglian washout

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Think it's fair to say the 12z GFS did go off on one? Here's the ensembles for a spot in Norfolk...

EDIT: A bit of an outlier down here too, but in terms of temperature rather than rainfall. It has a high of just 16C for London on the 10th, compared to an ensemble mean of 20C. The suite as a whole continues the theme from the 6z, FWIW, showing the heatwave ending on the 8th.

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I'd quite like a "North Sea Low" with a day of steady, torrential rain.

Would certainly freshen up the garden. 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Still looks warm in the SE on Thursday, but those liking the 30 stuff should enjoy the next few days as Darren says. I don't think they will return till next year

But the rest of the Summer looks quite pleasant and mostly dry at the moment, so 2018 will be remembered for years to come

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