-6c in my back yard. another spectacular effort from the Para 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&time=384&lid=PARA&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Some excellent GEFS tonight, something for everyone out in FI. Agree that Para run is exceptional.

Edit just seen the ensembles and dropped back down tonight again. 112 snow rows Liverpool!
Martin

Don't forget that the main  reason the 850s look high is that the pressure is very low, On some charts you can see that what looks like a warm blob is actually just the centre of a very low pressure system.

GFSP 12Z is the run of the winter so far. By the end it has lows in minus double figures and highs of -6C here.

yes Rob fair point- it’s going to be fascinating how it pans out 

The differences on 25th January 2019:

12z parallel chart @ 312 hrs:

MIDDAY TEMPS - SUB-ZERO NATIONWIDE? - Mildest part? Aberdeen/?

The snow depth:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOW THE GFS OP run @ 312:

Midday Temps hold above freezing!

The Snow Depth:

GFS OP always seems to be milder than the Parallel? 

It’s purely hypothetical at that range Sean but Aberdeen is not in the sea. The chart shows a temperature of just below freezing, a good few degrees colder than parts of Cornwall. 

Usual fluctuations in the Brighton Snow Row - 62 is the current score.

Cheers I noticed that.... however in a NE cold flow we would be close to freezing here except for the coastal strip.

Yes you’re right of course, I was just correcting Sean’s idea that Aberdeen was somehow an island off the east coast. 

ECM 12z at t216 is very different from the GFS 12z at the same time. The Azores HP is spoiling the party?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

ECM puts a bit of a downer in proceedings cold but not what we want Azores high far to close. The major models all very different still

Poor from ECM and quite different from this mornings effort 

Odds on massive mild outlier at day 10 ECM all over the place . In Para we trust!

ECM at 240 hours....ouch. 

This cannot be ignored.

Yes we would be going for a reload by day 11-12, but at least something interesting is in the mid-range on the ECM tonight.

I think that is what a few GFS op runs in the last day or two have been suggesting happening during the week after next, after the initial colder blast from the north during the coming week.

It looks poor on the face of it Steve for sure. However, my attention is drawn to the new HP cell emerging from the east coast of the USA which looks as though it could join forces with the Azores High cell in the mid-atlantic and cold lead to an even more potent N/NW blast later on. As I mentioned to Michael, GFS has been suggesting exactly this in one or two op runs over the last day or two.

I do think there is a chance of alternating cold and less cold interludes, at least over the next ten days. How long and how mild the less cold interludes are depends on a few things and is unclear at the moment.

Spot on! it's this pulse of high that joins and drives up to Greeny in the ideal sceanrio.