Brian doesn't mention which area he thinks will have 'diabolical' weather. Eastern Canada looks to fit the bill.

Good point. 

None of the above doesn't mean I don't think there could be a decent cold spell or snow, but I am writing off memorable for my lifetime.

GFS 06z op continues zonal, HP dominating from the S of the UK especially Sat 11th and Tue 21st, LP dominating from the N Tue 14th - Fri 17th, gales often occurring and notably stormy in the NW in the latter period. ECM similar but slips in a shallow trough over southern UK on Fri 10th and ramps up the storm on Tue 14th (both models have 935mb but GFS over Iceland and ECM over Rockall)

GEFS temps have that sine wave pattern until 14th, thereafter less agreement but mean is on the mild side. Rain around the 9th mostly in the S, the 14th-17th spell showing mainly in N & W, dry-ish after that

A few deep FI perturbations have cold air approaching from the E but nothing consistent; and http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 has cold air creeping round N of Norway in week 2 so a few straws floating about to clutch at.

Looks like the return of Autumnal rain and gales for my neck of the woods by the end of this week.

That holds very little appeal to me, I'd much rather have this current benign and dry theme to be honest. I could never understand anyone who actually yearn for rough wild wet weather.

Mid winter heatwave in many eastern and N. eastern states this Saturday.

But on a serious note - you can see all the cold air (THE PV) has been reserved to northern Canada and Greenland.

According to Netweather its currently 3c above normal at 7.25c - which is higher than both November (6.89) and December (6.37).

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/cet

Edit: the highest January CET is 7.5c, set in 1916

Ive got a feeling that will be be north of 8*C after the next 2 mild days.  Mid England widely expected to be double digits... quite rarely this isnt coming at the sacrifice of a load of rain.  

Im in London currently and its sunny and warm.  Its Jan 6th!!!!! crazy.

Looking at the Northern hemisphere 850s for the entire 6z GFS run, it's quite remarkable how the cold air stays away from Western Europe/Scandinavia/Western Russia like the plague. There really is no cold air anywhere near us to tap into throughout the run. The 6z projection is just a repeat of what we have seen run after run for many weeks now. 

It is difficult to see how the pressure patterns in our part of the world are going to change any time soon. Usually in Winters like this we still see periodic ridging North, of the highs to our South, but even this is non-existent this Winter. It is shaping up to be a record breaking season, but not of the type wanted by cold weather fans sadly.

The feeling of 'it can't get much worse' is the straw we can usually clutch onto these situations. The trouble is it doesn't look like getting better anytime soon  

On that cheery note, a Happy New Year to all! As ever, I'll continue to look optimistically at the charts for the first hint of a change. It might be a long wait though  

It isn't so much the mildness that annoys me but more the lack of any proper seasonal weather even from the once trusty Atlantic. As with the GFS 06 run mentioned in the post above, the EC 15 dayer this morning shows no real break in the current deadlock at all right out to the end of the run. (2m temp chart below)

but this has become the story for virtually every winter now. 

Happy New Year! It could quite easily get much worse sadly. Upstream patterns just look like allowing this persistent pattern to hold, how we actually get out of this is beyond me. This could easily develop into a Euroslug on steroids lasting for the foreseeable. 

I expect the current pattern to last until mid May, whereupon it will be replaced by Northern blocking for 4 months.

I thought it would be quite mild today and went out on my bike earlier. Was surprised how cold the wind felt actually, much less mild than it has been recently. Only 8C today which is pretty average really. Not sure where all the talk of record mildness is coming from, December CET was only 0.7C above average and January is nowhere near the Bartlettesque winters of yore so far. 

Looks like more rain spikes appearing on the ensembles too unfortunately. 

Glimmer of hope on the GFS op run for cold

pushed away in no time!

Icon 12z  worth a look for northerners. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=12&charthour=66&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

For Britain, it will be Pennine regions, then lower levels from the far north of England into Scotland. In Ireland, only the northernmost 25% (ish), and even then mostly higher ground.

That'd be my interpretation from both Icon & FFS.

Edit: where did your post go??  

December 2019
December experienced a range of weather conditions. It was 1.3 °C warmer than average with a mean temperature for the UK of 5.1 °C.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/record-breaking-year-concludes-record-breaking-decade

Assume it depends on what they're talking about - from the Dec CET thread it was 0.74c above the latest 30 year period for the CET area. It may well be different for the UK and if you're comparing with a different period

The CET was 5.8c, which was 0.7c above the last 30 year average of 5.1c, so obviously not what that press article is referring to.

On to the models and not really much to say sadly - may be some snow for high ground in the North briefly, there will be some very mild temps for some briefly and it's a generally above average picture with not much in the way of interest. Personally going by the GFS London T2M temps I don't think Jan will be a record breaking mild month but as it stands it looks like being noticeably above average although thankfully not massively wet down here with the worst of any rain the further north/west you are.