Absolutely correct Roger.

Essentially a similar order of risk. Ally Pally - I've not checked your figures, but there is little evidence my worrying about them will make any difference. If my name's on it I'll get it. If I can fight it off, I'll survive. I have had a really horrible cold/cough for 2 weeks - kept to myself, did not bother the GP, took the usual measures and only when it became a likely chest infection did the surgery call me in for a "quick listen". They put me on antibiotics, something I am always reluctant to do unless really necessary. I'd say I was clear now, the course finishes tomorrow. Unless I am a vulnerable subject, why should Coronavirus be much different? Might even be less horrible.

R.

I'm told you can only get it at CostCutter.

Not ALLDI?

If the Prof from Imperial College who was on R4 earlier is right, 60% - 80% of the country would get infected with a 1% death rate - that's a lot of people. 

He also said it turning into a global pandemic was inevitable.

Indeed.   Then the  issue would also be  the collapse of the NHS, with all the impacts that would have  for the critical care of non  virus suffers as well.

It's not all about the risk of personal  death, which   I'm not concerned about at this stage.

I disagree  on the risk but your attitude is a good one. I wouldn't say I'm overly worried myself I have two young boys so if it gets really bad my concern will be for them. 

so 60-80% of the world’s population are going to get this virus then?

That is the point - it is not just about the epidemiology of the new pathogen itself, but its disruptive effect on our healthcare systems and economy.

NHS elective operations would be shelved and social care would virtually collapse if the virus were to hit the UK as it has done in China.

Indeed,  add to that mass school closures , mass cancelling of sporting and public events. If it really takes hold here the country will suffer the most disruption since ww2.

Imperial College are estimating a 1% mortality rate.

The mortality rate from the coronavirus is an estimated 1%, researchers at the Imperial College London said in a new report that attempts to account for mild cases as well as more severe ones at the center of the outbreak in China.

Researchers have been trying to estimate how severe the virus is, and to calculate how fast it spreads as well as how many people get severe illnesses or die. In China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak began, the fatality rate may be 18% for patients with severe symptoms, the researchers calculated.

“The impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century,” Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease researcher at Imperial College London, said in a statement.

The researchers said the 1% mortality rate was an estimate of what will happen once all cases are counted, and after previously undiagnosed ones drive the rate down.

Any estimates ”should be viewed cautiously” given the numerous uncertainties involved, the researchers warned in in their report. Mortality rates tend to shift in the middle of an outbreak as new and milder cases are found.

The U.K. researchers estimated that the typical time between onset of symptoms and death has been about 22 days, meaning that there may be a multiweek time lag between reporting of cases and when deaths from those cases become apparent.

Overall, the Imperial College London researchers estimated that 1.3% of Wuhan residents were infected with the virus as of Jan. 31, but only 1 in 19 of them were being tested for the virus – suggesting that the actual number of cases could be far higher than the official numbers indicate.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-09/china-to-spend-10-billion-who-sends-team-to-asia-virus-update

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

So, the biggest killer was actually poverty.

Given the above it would seem to me:

1) It will not be possible to eradicate the virus by restricting travel and screening people. It will be possible to slow it down.

2) As we are approaching the end of the flu season there will be a lot of value in trying to control the spread. It could either fade away during the spring and summer and not return next winter. Alternatively a vaccine may be available before it becomes too widespread. 

Assuming that this pathogen behaves like 'flu. It may not.

In 12 months, a vaccine may be available and it is that which will halt it - except for the anti-vaxers of course.

Yes that is true. 

For reference - Wiki : List of human disease case fatality rates
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

I'm surprised how many of these I've had or been at risk from.

Also check out:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate#/media/File:Leading_cause_of_death_world.png

Sleep well.
Roger

Don't worry, you'll be safe over there in Albion.

perfect excuse for your lot to privatise it 

You say 'in China' but outside Hubei province the numbers are quite small still, certainly in relation to the total population.  I doubt that the UK will be hit anything like as badly as Hubei province.

In passing, having seen a doubling of cases in the U.K. in 24 hours would you use the term 'out of control' as you did did when Singapore saw a much smaller rate of increase?

Don't be absurd Beast!

Says the man who thinks Brexit is a good idea.

🙄

NYT:

"Dozens of people were quarantined at a Hong Kong housing complex after the virus appeared to spread through the building’s pipes. The number of total cases in China topped 42,000."

• very concerning if a virus can spread so easily through the air conditioning. Suggests flying with an infected person, could be a problem for all passengers on a plane.

It's got nothing to do with air conditioning. They are investigating the possibility that 2 people contracted the virus from fecal matter due to a possible design flaw in the building's piping system.

Bath University has a  coronavirus suspect The person is self-isolated.