I expect all the 2nd homes down here to suddenly fill up if the government gives 48 hrs notice prior to locking down certain areas. 

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 

The Mrs and I have been thinking about renting a place in western Scotland. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 if you do go for Holly cottage near Garve. We’ve stayed there a few times and it’s lovely.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 

Brian needs something like this and higher 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

The Hills Are Alive, With The Sound of Mucus

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

We are still looking for certainties where none do nor can exist. The whole situation is full of unknowns. Even with established viruses it is very difficult to predict any specifics, with a novel one that is nigh on impossible.

A sensible balance needs to be maintained and one that is appropriate to the situation we find ourselves in not where we could be in a worst case scenario. No system can operate like that for any length of time. People will become complacent if harsh measures are put in place before they are needed as they will believe that they do not apply to them, and just when you may need high levels of compliance it may decrease.

It is a very difficult balance. If we had been locked down a few weeks back with the numbers in the U.K. at or below where they are currently the chance of people complying with the measures for weeks on end would be very slim.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

We are still looking for certainties where none do nor can exist. The whole situation is full of unknowns. Even with established viruses it is very difficult to predict any specifics, with a novel one that is nigh on impossible.

A sensible balance needs to be maintained and one that is appropriate to the situation we find ourselves in not where we could be in a worst case scenario. No system can operate like that for any length of time. People will become complacent if harsh measures are put in place before they are needed as they will believe that they do not apply to them, and just when you may need high levels of compliance it may decrease.

It is a very difficult balance. If we had been locked down a few weeks back with the numbers in the U.K. at or below where they are currently the chance of people complying with the measures for weeks on end would be very slim.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Again Germany stands out.. why do the media refuse to talk about Germany for instance.

Almost 2000 with only 3 deaths, and 9 activate considered to be serious.  

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Probably a combination of an excellent health care system and (crucially) a lack of a Milan or Wuhan like cluster. Germany has by far the highest number of ICUs, but their system would probably struggle too with a Milan like outbreak. What do you do when you run out of ICUs and you cannot transport patients to other areas?

PS. Doc's post very sensible as usually.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

ICU make little difference when only 9 cases are considered serious and the rest mild... 

Italy has had over 275 times more deaths than Germany whilst only having 7.5 times more cases - which unlike Germany many are still considered serious.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

ICU make little difference when only 9 cases are considered serious and the rest mild... 

Italy has had over 275 times more deaths than Germany whilst only having 7.5 times more cases - which unlike Germany many are still considered serious.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

We are still looking for certainties where none do nor can exist. The whole situation is full of unknowns. Even with established viruses it is very difficult to predict any specifics, with a novel one that is nigh on impossible.

A sensible balance needs to be maintained and one that is appropriate to the situation we find ourselves in not where we could be in a worst case scenario. No system can operate like that for any length of time. People will become complacent if harsh measures are put in place before they are needed as they will believe that they do not apply to them, and just when you may need high levels of compliance it may decrease.

It is a very difficult balance. If we had been locked down a few weeks back with the numbers in the U.K. at or below where they are currently the chance of people complying with the measures for weeks on end would be very slim.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes Doc - I'm not discounting the UK Government's approach on this... the science is compelling on how to "smooth the curve", but as you say we are in uncharted territory and my concern (as I've already mentioned) are for those that are in the unprotected cohort. These people are not necessarily in their 80s, these are people that cover every age group that have susceptibility that cannot be covered by vaccination.

My worry is that the "meh" stance shown by some on here is a micro-attitude that extrapolated will heighten infection into those groups through a lack of adherence to any Government rules. Put simply, "I'm alright Jack" and fluff the rest.

Most of us have elderly relatives, some have vulnerable family members or friends. We need to think of all of us, but I suspect for some of the UK population they won't give a shit.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Yes Doc - I'm not discounting the UK Government's approach on this... the science is compelling on how to "smooth the curve", but as you say we are in uncharted territory and my concern (as I've already mentioned) are for those that are in the unprotected cohort. These people are not necessarily in their 80s, these are people that cover every age group that have susceptibility that cannot be covered by vaccination.

My worry is that the "meh" stance shown by some on here is a micro-attitude that extrapolated will heighten infection into those groups through a lack of adherence to any Government rules. Put simply, "I'm alright Jack" and fluff the rest.

Most of us have elderly relatives, some have vulnerable family members or friends. We need to think of all of us, but I suspect for some of the UK population they won't give a shit.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Breaking: UK set to move to delay phase. Schools could close and major sporting events cancelled

Originally Posted by: Gavin D