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speckledjim
16 March 2020 14:58:09


Quick breakdown of the data



  • New cases - 171 (down 61 on yesterday)

  • Daily results received to 9am - 3,826 (up 1,293 on Saturday)

  • Daily positivity rate - 4.47% (down 4.69%)


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


Interesting as we completed 2533 cases yesterday. More cases done, less cases found - long may that continue.


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Heavy Weather 2013
16 March 2020 14:58:26
A total of 4,895 Scottish tests have concluded. Of these:

4,724 tests were confirmed negative
171 tests were positive
Last updated: 2pm on 16 March 2020. The latest numbers will publish at 2pm each day.

Coincendent or not?
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
16 March 2020 14:59:11


 


Yes very good news on the face of it. 
We shall see but one must expect a big jump tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Maybe this big jump will never happen , I have to say I have been expecting much more ……………..are we being too negative ?


Also the league table PHE update daily seem to have most cases Midlands South , any particular reason ?


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
16 March 2020 14:59:45


 


Only with a SK/China level response. There is no evidence we are capable of either. We don't have the technology/infrastructure to go SK and we don't have the culture, subservient population to go China.


Definitely seems we are in damage limitation mode rn.


 


Also as bad as things are we just have to hope this thing doesn't mutate into something more potent. With so much viral DNA about the longer this lasts the greater something even nastier will turn up.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We cannot go SK or China - best hope for keeping NHS operating is to do what is being proposed - isolate elderly and vulnerable groups as far as is feasible.


I cannot stress too much - it is when the virus takes hold in elderly communities that health services buckle - for younger, healthy people without underlying issues, the virus can be very unpleasant, but apart from for a percentage, does not require hospitalisation.


New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
16 March 2020 15:04:21


 


And to think if things had gone a bit differently in December, that arsehole's even bigger arsehole of a brother would have been "leading" the country through this pandemic now...


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


As opposed to the arsehole currently leading the country


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
16 March 2020 15:04:57


 


We cannot go SK or China - best hope for keeping NHS operating is to do what is being proposed - isolate elderly and vulnerable groups as far as is feasible.


I cannot stress too much - it is when the virus takes hold in elderly communities that health services buckle - for younger, healthy people without underlying issues, the virus can be very unpleasant, but apart from for a percentage, does not require hospitalisation.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Exposing the lowest risk groups first does make some sense. I kinda feel though there is a total lack of imagination amongst the govt (and why is stuff like asking the private sector to manufacture ventilators happening now and not 2 months ago?!)


For example. Why not pay people who have tested positive and recovered a stipend to perform 'public service'? I.e distribute these individuals into the higher risk jobs where people are more likely to be infected.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
16 March 2020 15:06:05

A total of 4,895 Scottish tests have concluded. Of these:

4,724 tests were confirmed negative
171 tests were positive
Last updated: 2pm on 16 March 2020. The latest numbers will publish at 2pm each day.

Coincendent or not?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Think that's it.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
16 March 2020 15:06:22


The obvious flaw being that we have an absolutely bobbins climate and - especially in the north-western fringes - you can't guarantee a week of mainly warm/hot, dry and sunny weather.


I enjoy a mini break in the UK, and have struck lucky with the weather on the odd occasion, but it's rarely the sort of weather condusive to sitting round a pool relaxing and drinking cold beer, or spending half a day on the beach sizzling in the sun.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 



Nail on the head.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


 


The problem with mini-breaks is that they're just not relaxing.


I go away to some hot, sunny place and I laze around the pool, having the odd hour or two playing with the kids, lots of sunbathing & reading, interspersed with a bite to eat, and accompanied by a steady supply of lager or rum & coke. Then get ready for the evening, have something to eat, more alcohol, a stroll back to the villa or room.


On a mini break in the UK, I'll inevitably be driving so being in a constant state of tipsiness is out. There's a pressure to sight-see and do stuff. Food & drink is generally more expensive over here. 80% of the time the weather fits between 'meh' and utter crap.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
16 March 2020 15:06:36

Hard to believe there were zero deaths in England


Crisis over?


Can we start the football again and go back to talking Brexit?


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
16 March 2020 15:10:53


 


 


I'd disagree with that. As someone who suffers from regular (but thankfully not to frequent) debilitating migraines, I find paracetamol helps ease the pain a lot quicker than ibuprofen, though which when does kick in tends to have a longer effect. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


You can take both if you wish.


When I cracked two ribs, the doctor told me to take Co-Codamol and ibuprofen about two hours apart and keep that cycle going. But if it got really painful, it was ok to take both at the same time.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
16 March 2020 15:11:47


Hard to believe there were zero deaths in England


Crisis over?


Can we start the football again and go back to talking Brexit?


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I do hope the figures aren't being messed with , that would be bloody stupid 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
16 March 2020 15:12:00


For example. Why not pay people who have tested positive and recovered a stipend to perform 'public service'? I.e distribute these individuals into the higher risk jobs where people are more likely to be infected.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Assuming those who have recovered from the virus are now completely immune and cannot pass it on, that would be an excellent idea.


 


New world order coming.
speckledjim
16 March 2020 15:13:13

There are currently 21 European countries that have more infections (per 1m pop) than the UK.


And only Italy has done more tests than us


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
16 March 2020 15:15:24


 


I do hope the figures aren't being messed with , that would be bloody stupid 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Sometimes there is a time lag - the following has just been reported:


"Salisbury District Hospital said a man in his fifties with underlying health conditions, who died on March 11, has tested positive for Covid-19.


"Sadly we can confirm a man who had been cared for at Salisbury Hospital and died here on 11th March has tested positive for Covid-19," the hospital said."


But it took 5 days to confirm that the victim was actually a COVID-19 infected person.


New world order coming.
Chunky Pea
16 March 2020 15:17:16

European (geographical) confirmed cases vs confirmed deaths & mortality rate over the last 7 days:



























































MarchConfirmed casesDeathsMortality rate (%)
9th119983993.33
10th153815393.50
11th180777163.96
12th229349514.15
13th2939812014.09
14th3629915134.17
15th4149917444.20
16th5244523374.46

From the ECDC:


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 March 2020 15:21:08


It includes England I think. Therefore it suggests now is the time to push back bloody hard. It's still very possible for us to get on top of this in the UK. Forget the herd immunity nonsense for now.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

  Indeed it’s encouraging.  I’ve been hearing quite a few stories of kind deeds and people going out of their way to help others.  This has restored my faith and make me believe that as a nation, we can do it together if we all do our bit!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Chunky Pea
16 March 2020 15:22:53


You can take both if you wish.


When I cracked two ribs, the doctor told me to take Co-Codamol and ibuprofen about two hours apart and keep that cycle going. But if it got really painful, it was ok to take both at the same time.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Ouch, that sounded rough!


Will keep your advice in mind.  


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
speckledjim
16 March 2020 15:25:54
The % increase of new cases in Spain is beginning to drop. The last 3 days have been 20%, 22%, 22%. The previous 5 days were 66%, 38%, 33%, 37%, 83%.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
nsrobins
16 March 2020 15:29:12
Forgive me for my lack of understanding, but how can the metrics for new cases be used with any confidence when the conditions have changed (only testing admissions for the last few days). Surely the only useful metric is number of deaths proved attributable to COVID2?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
16 March 2020 15:31:37


Quick breakdown of the data



  • New cases - 171 (down 61 on yesterday)

  • Daily results received to 9am - 3,826 (up 1,293 on Saturday)

  • Daily positivity rate - 4.47% (down 4.69%)


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 


I don't understand.


They were supposed to have shifted policy to only test those hospitalised by suspected coronavirus.


So either there's a hell of a lot of people in hospital with symptoms similar to coronavirus but not with actual coronavirus, or there's a lot of bending the rules (presumably for footballers, politicians and celebrities)


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Ally Pally Snowman
16 March 2020 15:32:04

The % increase of new cases in Spain is beginning to drop. The last 3 days have been 20%, 22%, 22%. The previous 5 days were 66%, 38%, 33%, 37%, 83%.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


The amount of confirmed cases becomes immaterial after awhile as far too many people will have it to possibly test. It's hospitalisation and deaths now that are important.  That goes for the UK as well as we are only testing people ill enough to be admitted to hospital. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
16 March 2020 15:32:27

Forgive me for my lack of understanding, but how can the metrics for new cases be used with any confidence when the conditions have changed (only testing admissions for the last few days). Surely the only useful metric is number of deaths proved attributable to COVID2?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



As I wrote this morning - the key metrics are hospitalisation rates and CFR (Case Fatality Rate) - from those measures, all else can be determined, including capacity issues in the NHS.


 


New world order coming.
Quantum
16 March 2020 15:36:28

Forgive me for my lack of understanding, but how can the metrics for new cases be used with any confidence when the conditions have changed (only testing admissions for the last few days). Surely the only useful metric is number of deaths proved attributable to COVID2?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Let's say the true number of cases is A(t), and the confirmed cases are C(t). Provided C(t) is proportional to A(t) then the data is still useful. Even if the relationship is slightly non linear it's not too much of a problem since we are dealing with exponential growth. The problem comes when we see saturation because C(t) for each day reaches a maximun value due to testing limitations. I don't think we have saturated yet though.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
16 March 2020 15:38:42


 


Ouch, that sounded rough!


Will keep your advice in mind.  


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


It was.


Tripped over a low wall in the pitch black, fell around 10 feet, did a half somersault without trying to, landed on my back on large pebbles that formed the bank of a river. Broke them about two inches away from my spine. About a week later, momentarily forgot I'd done it when a sneeze crept up on me. As I sneezed, I felt the beginning-to-knit ribs re-snap. That was more painful than the initial break.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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