Interesting as we completed 2533 cases yesterday. More cases done, less cases found - long may that continue.

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A total of 4,895 Scottish tests have concluded. Of these:

4,724 tests were confirmed negative
171 tests were positive
Last updated: 2pm on 16 March 2020. The latest numbers will publish at 2pm each day.

Coincendent or not?

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Maybe this big jump will never happen , I have to say I have been expecting much more ……………..are we being too negative ?

Also the league table PHE update daily seem to have most cases Midlands South , any particular reason ?

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We cannot go SK or China - best hope for keeping NHS operating is to do what is being proposed - isolate elderly and vulnerable groups as far as is feasible.

I cannot stress too much - it is when the virus takes hold in elderly communities that health services buckle - for younger, healthy people without underlying issues, the virus can be very unpleasant, but apart from for a percentage, does not require hospitalisation.

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As opposed to the arsehole currently leading the country

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Exposing the lowest risk groups first does make some sense. I kinda feel though there is a total lack of imagination amongst the govt (and why is stuff like asking the private sector to manufacture ventilators happening now and not 2 months ago?!)

For example. Why not pay people who have tested positive and recovered a stipend to perform 'public service'? I.e distribute these individuals into the higher risk jobs where people are more likely to be infected.

 

 

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Think that's it.

 

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The problem with mini-breaks is that they're just not relaxing.

I go away to some hot, sunny place and I laze around the pool, having the odd hour or two playing with the kids, lots of sunbathing & reading, interspersed with a bite to eat, and accompanied by a steady supply of lager or rum & coke. Then get ready for the evening, have something to eat, more alcohol, a stroll back to the villa or room.

On a mini break in the UK, I'll inevitably be driving so being in a constant state of tipsiness is out. There's a pressure to sight-see and do stuff. Food & drink is generally more expensive over here. 80% of the time the weather fits between 'meh' and utter crap.

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Hard to believe there were zero deaths in England

Crisis over?

Can we start the football again and go back to talking Brexit?

 

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You can take both if you wish.

When I cracked two ribs, the doctor told me to take Co-Codamol and ibuprofen about two hours apart and keep that cycle going. But if it got really painful, it was ok to take both at the same time.

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I do hope the figures aren't being messed with , that would be bloody stupid 

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Assuming those who have recovered from the virus are now completely immune and cannot pass it on, that would be an excellent idea.

 

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First coronavirus death in both Shrewsbury and Wrexham today

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/03/16/coronavirus-updates-live-daily-government-briefings-announced-as-us-bars-shutdown/

There are currently 21 European countries that have more infections (per 1m pop) than the UK.

And only Italy has done more tests than us

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Sometimes there is a time lag - the following has just been reported:

"Salisbury District Hospital said a man in his fifties with underlying health conditions, who died on March 11, has tested positive for Covid-19.

"Sadly we can confirm a man who had been cared for at Salisbury Hospital and died here on 11th March has tested positive for Covid-19," the hospital said."

But it took 5 days to confirm that the victim was actually a COVID-19 infected person.

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European (geographical) confirmed cases vs confirmed deaths & mortality rate over the last 7 days:

March	Confirmed cases	Deaths	Mortality rate (%)
9th	11998	399	3.33
10th	15381	539	3.50
11th	18077	716	3.96
12th	22934	951	4.15
13th	29398	1201	4.09
14th	36299	1513	4.17
15th	41499	1744	4.20
16th	52445	2337	4.46

From the ECDC:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

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  Indeed it’s encouraging.  I’ve been hearing quite a few stories of kind deeds and people going out of their way to help others.  This has restored my faith and make me believe that as a nation, we can do it together if we all do our bit!

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Ouch, that sounded rough!

Will keep your advice in mind.  

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The % increase of new cases in Spain is beginning to drop. The last 3 days have been 20%, 22%, 22%. The previous 5 days were 66%, 38%, 33%, 37%, 83%.

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Forgive me for my lack of understanding, but how can the metrics for new cases be used with any confidence when the conditions have changed (only testing admissions for the last few days). Surely the only useful metric is number of deaths proved attributable to COVID2?

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I don't understand.

They were supposed to have shifted policy to only test those hospitalised by suspected coronavirus.

So either there's a hell of a lot of people in hospital with symptoms similar to coronavirus but not with actual coronavirus, or there's a lot of bending the rules (presumably for footballers, politicians and celebrities)

 

 

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The amount of confirmed cases becomes immaterial after awhile as far too many people will have it to possibly test. It's hospitalisation and deaths now that are important.  That goes for the UK as well as we are only testing people ill enough to be admitted to hospital. 

 

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As I wrote this morning - the key metrics are hospitalisation rates and CFR (Case Fatality Rate) - from those measures, all else can be determined, including capacity issues in the NHS.

 

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Let's say the true number of cases is A(t), and the confirmed cases are C(t). Provided C(t) is proportional to A(t) then the data is still useful. Even if the relationship is slightly non linear it's not too much of a problem since we are dealing with exponential growth. The problem comes when we see saturation because C(t) for each day reaches a maximun value due to testing limitations. I don't think we have saturated yet though.

 

 

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It was.

Tripped over a low wall in the pitch black, fell around 10 feet, did a half somersault without trying to, landed on my back on large pebbles that formed the bank of a river. Broke them about two inches away from my spine. About a week later, momentarily forgot I'd done it when a sneeze crept up on me. As I sneezed, I felt the beginning-to-knit ribs re-snap. That was more painful than the initial break.

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