Let's say the true number of cases is A(t), and the confirmed cases are C(t). Provided C(t) is proportional to A(t) then the data is still useful. Even if the relationship is slightly non linear it's not too much of a problem since we are dealing with exponential growth. The problem comes when we see saturation because C(t) for each day reaches a maximun value due to testing limitations. I don't think we have saturated yet though.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It was.

Tripped over a low wall in the pitch black, fell around 10 feet, did a half somersault without trying to, landed on my back on large pebbles that formed the bank of a river. Broke them about two inches away from my spine. About a week later, momentarily forgot I'd done it when a sneeze crept up on me. As I sneezed, I felt the beginning-to-knit ribs re-snap. That was more painful than the initial break.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

The UK is now at a crossroads IMO. Italy saw a brief drop in new cases (to about 240 per day I think) before things exploded. The way forward is very clear for the UK: a massive effort to push back must be undertaken during the next 2 weeks. I'm convinced the virus can be controlled and repelled as the WHO have repeatedly suggested. What frightens the living daylights out of me is the possibility of Whitty and Vallance deciding the rate of infection is too low and therefore turning on the transmission taps to bump it up.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I get the point, but we have no idea the proportion of A(t) to C(t). Experts I've heard generally believe it to be something between 10x and 50x, possibly higher.

I'd be amazed if the true number of people who have or have had Covid-19 in the UK wasn't well over 100,000 - and most of them haven't realised it.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

The UK is now at a crossroads IMO. Italy saw a brief drop in new cases (to about 240 per day I think) before things exploded. The way forward is very clear for the UK: a massive effort to push back must be undertaken during the next 2 weeks. I'm convinced the virus can be controlled and repelled as the WHO have repeatedly suggested. What frightens the living daylights out of me is the possibility of Whitty and Vallance deciding the rate of infection is too low and therefore turning on the transmission taps to bump it up.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The amount of confirmed cases becomes immaterial after awhile as far too many people will have it to possibly test. It's hospitalisation and deaths now that are important.  That goes for the UK as well as we are only testing people ill enough to be admitted to hospital. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Passed through M&S Food half an hour ago. All fresh food &ready meals shelves well stocked,

Originally Posted by: DEW 

The UK is now at a crossroads IMO. Italy saw a brief drop in new cases (to about 240 per day I think) before things exploded. The way forward is very clear for the UK: a massive effort to push back must be undertaken during the next 2 weeks. I'm convinced the virus can be controlled and repelled as the WHO have repeatedly suggested. What frightens the living daylights out of me is the possibility of Whitty and Vallance deciding the rate of infection is too low and therefore turning on the transmission taps to bump it up.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Yikes. 

Often the initial 'shock' following on from such a fall will mask the pain of any injuries I have found. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

The amount of confirmed cases becomes immaterial after awhile as far too many people will have it to possibly test. It's hospitalisation and deaths now that are important.  That goes for the UK as well as we are only testing people ill enough to be admitted to hospital. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

That and I was p*ssed.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

The health chief in Birmingham City council has said the spread of the virus in that city is moving more quickly than anticipated , focus has moved away from testing

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Also WRT the figures, there are at least 2 people in St Helens with coronavirus - as three separate schools have sent letters home advising that the parent of a child has been confirmed as having coronavirus (one of the schools is a primary that feeds into one of the two senior schools, so it may be the parent of siblings in each school) but the official figures (per the BBC interactive map) shows just one case here.

Yes, it's an absolute triviality in itself, but if it's repeated around the country...

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I'm not convinced there is a massive reservoir of undiagnosed cases. If there was how would Asian countries be able to keep numbers under control? Makes no sense to me.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze