True, DrM - yet almost any alternative would have a downside, don't you think? Business as usual now could have produced worried, disrupted pupils sitting their exams when feeling well below par, with some unable to sit their exams through illness. There would be tears for that too. As the saying goes: If I were going to Dublin, I wouldn't start from here!

All schools should be able to make sound predictions of pupil grades supported by appropriate references. If not, the chances of their pupils doing well in that school would be at least questionable. I would say from my own teaching experience that I had a good grasp of my pupils' characters and potential and enjoyed expressing this in reports and references. Once the pupils affected move on to the next level of study, their keenness to show their ability will (hopefully) help them to flourish.

I spent yesterday writing my weekly newsletter to county naturalists with an interest in biological recording. It was a saga of cancellations or postponements from everyone, with the major organisations putting out good advice to their members. I emailed it at 3pm yesterday and 50% had already read it by 3pm today, which is very encouraging. Events and meetings in the next 12 weeks have been cancelled outright or deferred, with decisions on the rest of the year on hold until we have a clearer picture of the natural history of CO-19.

I am following the course of the Covid-19 epidemic closely - but have little to add to the discussion just now. Busy digesting the information and thinking!

Thanks for all your input.

Roger

Precisely the point David. The upfront economic costs of quarantine for everyone coming into the country from a location already with the contagion, would have been far less than the costs of dealing with an epidemic at home.

We would still have had cases of course, but if the numbers had been controllable, we could have contact traced and quarantined most people with it.

We were lax, but then so was the whole of Europe with the consequences we now see.

I'm getting sick of you now.  Shouldn't you be down the pub with the other disgraces?

Just catching up on Noughts and Crosses on iplayer. Then I'm heading down there

Boris says this will be over in 12 weeks. No need to worry

Just been told Beer Hawk are closing their bars in London from Sunday.

Edit: they're opening virtual pubs. I'd had that idea myself

The figures are a surprise (in purely statistical terms) - given the lock-down in Italy and in Lombardy in particular.

However, we all know there is a time lag which can be up to two weeks.

Who are they?

Im sure wetherspoon will close as well, if he can get financial support from the govt and insurance cover sorted out

Yes, I understand parts of  London are carrying on as normal, with plenty of young men out on the streets and in bars.

People are clearly infecting each other at home anyway. Perhaps the lockdown was pointless harm to the economy. Vallance may have been right in the first place - let it rip

conscientious objector don’t worry You always get a few beaten on the quiet during ww2

Boris's dad too!

Come on Beast - you've degraded your posts down to trolling one/two liners now.

Please add some balance and value before you get yourself banned. Your contributions were better than this before.

I see the simpletons and cretins are out in force at Wetherspoons again

Aye Beast it hits home conscientious objector

Ive always enjoyed his one liners, but this isn’t the time. There are a number of at risk people on TWO and dismissing this when people are concerned and/or worried are unacceptable 

Look at Italy. Lockdown does not seem to be making much difference. Our more relaxed approach has not led to a surge in numbers. The numbers are stable for now as Whitty says

So why hasn't he forced closed them? Is it just to protect the insurance industry?

Completely agree Justin. 

There is a lag though right? Their problem was the N Italy lockdown was leaked so loads fled south and spread the disease before the wider lockdown. They are suffering the consequences of this now.

You've become increasingly complacent and blasé Beast, saying this is a storm in a teacup. If you want to use that analogy accurately, London would have to be locked down. Our teacup is cracked and leaking day by day.

Doubt it. Suspect it’s to allow the country’s detritus and filth to drink itself to death and do us all a favour.

Lockdown worked in China and it will work in Italy - what we are presumably seeing in Italy is the infection rate from a week ago.

The opportunity for the virus to spread has been removed, somewhat cackhandedly, since because the initial news of the lockdown in Lombardy leaked before it was implemented, thousands left carrying the infection before it was put in place.

The other thing to consider in cities like Milan, Munich and Madrid, is that millions of people live in apartment blocks - I have lived in these cities in the past and you have common entrance areas with common door handles, stairs with common stair rails and lifts with common buttons etc. Even in lockdown situations, people have to access the common areas to go shopping, get the post, walk the dog and if they forget to wash hands before touching face or surfaces in the home or eating, the infection can still spread. I still consider one advantage of the UK is the large number who live in separate housing, whether detached, semi or terraced, with their own front doors and yards.

 They are testing medication to alleviate the more severe effects on the lungs at Southampton University. Sounded quite hopeful and not in the distant future.