On the other hand, don't you see the opportunity provided to get on with key infrastructure maintenance and development for road and rail, whilst the network is extremely quiet?

 

---

At what cost? Is a risk to someone’s life genuinely worth the risk?

 

---

Some elements of essential maintenance ie repair of potholes etc ?...yes.

Large scale construction projects using vast amounts of supply chain, materials and multiple resources... No (that can wait a while).

---

Given what we know, most of those working on the ground doing construction work will be pretty youthful and physically fit - therefore, they should not be at much risk of suffering from the worst effects of the virus. Those who do fall into more vulnerable categories, should self isolate on the 80% 20% pay rule in any case. The other key thing about those still going to work, such as construction workers, is that they obey the rules of not mixing with other family members who are in the vulnerable groups.

It can be managed with some discipline and foresight. On the other hand, there has never been a better time (in terms of disruption) for getting on with road and rail projects.

---

Daily breakdown of the data from PHE

UK data 

• Daily confirmed Cases - 1,427 (+460)


• Patients Recovered - 135 (no change) - Current daily high for recovered patients 42 (22/03)


• Total UK deaths - 422 (+87)

English data

Top 10 Local Authorities with the highest confirmed cases

1. Hampshire: 207


2. Lambeth: 188


3. Birmingham: 187


4. Southwark: 181


5. Brent: 170


6. Wandsworth: 155


7. Westminster: 143


8. Hertfordshire: 139


9. Harrow: 134


10. Sheffield: 130

Local Authorities with the fewest confirmed cases

• Kingston upon Hull, City of: 1


• Blackburn with Darwen: 2


• Hartlepool: 3


• Darlington: 3


• North East Lincolnshire: 3


• Bracknell Forest: 3


• Isle of Wight: 3

Regional data

• London - 2,872 (+439)


• Midlands - 1,074 (+266)


• South East - 751 (+161)


• North West - 593 (+97)


• North East and Yorkshire - 426 (+92)


• East of England - 429 (+78)


• South West - 345 (+67)

All changes with yesterday. Data based up to 9am today.

The case totals have been updated at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/ and I'm sure Gavin D will be along soon to give the Top 10, etc.

Just looking at the differences from yesterday, the jumps are by no means across the board; there seem to be some LAs with big jumps and many others staying the same. For example:

Berkshire seems to be almost free of new cases (maybe our hospitals aren't testing?):
Wokingham 13 (n/c)
Bracknell 3 (n/c)
Reading 8 (n/c)
Windsor & Maidenhead 13 (n/c)
Slough 22 (n/c)
West Berkshire 12 (+2)

Meanwhile, big jumps elsewhere:
Surrey 110 (+41)
Hampshire 207 (+36)
West Sussex 52 (+24)
East Sussex 21 (+10)
Brighton 25 (+8)
Hertfordshire 139 (+24)
Gloucestershire 49 (+17)
Birmingham 187 (+50)
Lambeth 188 (+54)
Croydon 128 (+43)

---

We are quite acquiescent to the idea that medical staff in this epidemic should put their lives at serious risk to save other lives. And the medical staff accept this.

To prevent the economy from complete collapse, and thus ultimately save a lot more lives down the line because with a shattered economy many, many people will also die unnecessarily, is it unreasonable to ask some people to take a lesser risk?

In the past, in the face of existential threats, the country was quite happy to send hundreds of thousands of young men to their almost certain deaths.

I'm not saying I agree or disagree. I'm just posing the questions.

---

Apparently UK not participating in EU efforts to procure medical supplies.

---

 

Well the "geezers" currently  putting in my neighbour's kitchen don't seem too fussed by Social Distancing.  When I went for my perambulation this afternoon, they were "hob nobbing" in  group, only a few inches apart and  made it very difficult for me to give them a wide berth. No masks, gloves or anything - but I doubt they even use use them when using an angle grinder on concrete

 

 

---

If it's any consolation, the stats from Italy suggest that your friend will make it after a prolonged period in the ICU.

Best wishes

A disdain if not ignorance of risk is part of that culture. A house across the road from ours has just had the roof replaced. None of the guys working on it were wearing any hardhats or other PPE from the moment they started erecting the scaffolding to the end of the job, even though they were lobbing and catching heavy tools and materials thrown from the top of the scaffolding to the ground and vice versa. I don't know if they have employer's liability insurance but it would be surprising if it paid out if one of them had his skull crushed by a falling scaffolding truss.

---

This demonstrates the risk Liverpool was placed in when Atletico Madrid came with supporters the other week:

"The largest island in Estonia is at the heart of the Baltic state’s coronavirus outbreak, with 114 of the country’s 369 cases.

The outbreak in Saaremaa is thought to have begun when an Italian volleyball team from Milan played a local club at the beginning of March.

The island, which has a population of 33,000, has spent the past 10 days sealed off from the rest of Estonia."

 

---

The antibody test kits apparently aren't British. They are from South Korea and China. Spain has already taken a shipment of 640,000.

The news from Health Secretary Matt Hancock that the UK has now purchased 3.5 million of these tests is especially welcome as the death toll grows. This week Spain also took delivery of 640,000 test kits, thought to be of a similar kind, from China and South Korea. They will be used on healthcare professionals first. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52013888

 

---

According to the BBC news, France is already running out of key medicines.

According to Matt Hancock, the UK is well placed because of stockpiles accumulated during plans for a possible No Deal Brexit.

No idea whether we have sufficient, those are just statements which have been made.

---

Imagine if a country's leader died from this. Rumours that Bolsonaro may well have been tested positive for the virus.

It's the Sun (various sources reporting it) but this looks important:

1) SCIENTISTS believe they have found 40 mutations of coronavirus - and say seven cases can be traced back to a single football match in England.
The mutations were discovered by analysing swabs of Covid-19 patients in Iceland - where almost 600 cases have been reported so far.

2) Some 5,000 volunteers who did not have any symptoms joined the study – 48 of whom actually tested positive*.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11245475/scientists-40-mutations-coronavirus-traced-english-football-match/

 

- To me it suggests we are a LONG way from herd immunity. *although on second thoughts not clear if they were antibody testing 

- With that many mutations in circulation I wonder how effective a vaccine would be? 

 

---

Here’s a situation. 

My Daughter bought her ticket to fly back to the UK from Taiwan this morning. The flight was via Hong Kong as of 4hrs ago Hong Kong has changed its rules and anybody landing must isolate for 14 days even if you are transiting through the airport. 
The only option is to buy yet another ticket to flight straight back to the UK on the last flight out of Taiwan on China Air. What a mess. This will cost her £2,500 in total.

---

Would Trump be that much of a loss to the USA?

He is clueless, he thinks this will be licked by Easter with churches full of people celebrating it and eveybody  back to work.

 

---

In some countries that'd be a big progress! Trump, for example, is probably the worst leader you can have for such a crisis.

There can be no effective long term vaccine for a corona virus, that is part of the problem - otherwise we would have developed a vaccine for the common cold instead.

What has happened with the common cold (which is caused by a constantly mutating corona virus) is that humans have learned to tolerate it, even if they don't like the effects. As I have written previously, native Americans lacked any resistance to European diseases and after the Spanish arrived, their numbers were completely decimated.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/06/how-europeans-brought-sickness-new-world

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/01/world/european-colonization-climate-change-trnd/index.html

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/european-diseases-left-genetic-mark-native-americans

 

 

---

Given that the only real reason for the switch from GMT to the very annoying (espcially for us weather folk) to Bloody Silly Time is to allow bankers in the SE to play tennis till midnight, maybe now is the time to finally end this archaic practice and remain on real time all year round?

Though I suppose at least this year many of us wont suffer the ill effects of the change since it no longer matters when we wake!

---

Might make my 5am runs difficult.

---

Powerful stuff from Cuomo. 

Coronavirus spreading in New York like 'a bullet train'

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has pleaded for medical supplies, warning Covid-19 is spreading in his state faster than "a bullet train".

"The apex is higher than we thought and the apex is sooner than we thought," Mr Cuomo told reporters on Tuesday.

He said the federal government was not sending enough equipment to combat the crisis, noting the state needs 30,000 ventilators.

New York now has over 25,000 confirmed virus cases and at least 210 deaths.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday the US could become the new epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.

"We are now seeing a very large acceleration in cases in the US. So it does have that potential," WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.

Mr Cuomo's warning comes as President Donald Trump suggested having the US back in business by early next month.

"We need federal help and we need the federal help now," Mr Cuomo said.

"New York is the canary in the coal mine, New York is happening first, what is happening to New York will happen to California and Illinois, it is just a matter of time."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012048

 

---

Eat more fiber? 

Yes. It's not a pleasing prospect. I still think no one really knows how this will develop.

---