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Roger Parsons
Thursday, March 26, 2020 12:51:54 PM


 I did post something yesterday morning about analysis of some of the more reliable data coming from Iran suggesting the true number of cases could be 10x or 100x higher than they're reporting.


It could be a mix of lack of testing capability, lack of effective organisation/reporting and State propaganda.


China is more straightforward, IMO, because we know they have ramped up their propaganda machine to pump out two messages: (1) the virus didn't really start in Wuhan, and (2) what a brilliant job The Party has done to defeat the virus.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Box emptying time, Gandalf!


R


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
JHutch
Thursday, March 26, 2020 12:57:21 PM

More on the Dyson ventilators, appears all is not as it seems.



westv
Thursday, March 26, 2020 12:58:36 PM


More on the Dyson ventilators, appears all is not as it seems.




Originally Posted by: JHutch 


Presumably they need to check they blow rather than suck.


At least it will be mild!
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:04:29 PM


 


Presumably they need to check they blow rather than suck.


Originally Posted by: westv 

Shouldn't really laugh, but 


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
xioni2
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:08:50 PM

Question.

The PM confirmed the lockdown would last three weeks. What is everyone’s thoughts. Do people think we could have this lifted then, or do people think we may have this extended?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


It's extremely unlikely that the lockdown will only last 3 weeks.

xioni2
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:12:19 PM


 Will partly depend on where we are with antibody testing. Apparently the ones Spain has bought are worse than useless. UK has apparently bought the same. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Spain has officially said that they won't be using those antibodies tests as they are useless and they will return them. The Chinese embassy in Madrid said that Spain purchased them from a company without a licence. I don't know if ours are the same, but I hope not.

xioni2
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:16:40 PM


 Think we will have another 3-6 weeks on top of this. After that however what happens? If many deaths are avoided now then great but this thing will be back again within a week. You can see periods of lockdown and opening up. I suppose that will cause this flatter curve rather than the spike and give the NHS the chance to treat more people.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


The lockdown isn't just about stopping the NHS from being overwhelmed. It's also about bringing down the number of new infections (breaking the transmission chains or reducing the R0 if you prefer). The idea is (or should be) that if that happens, then by then we should have established a proper test and trace regime in order to contain the epidemic and avoid further lockdowns (like the Asian countries have done).

Heavy Weather 2013
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:16:40 PM


 


Spain has officially said that they won't be using those antibodies tests as they are useless and they will return them. The Chinese embassy in Madrid said that Spain purchased them from a company without a licence. I don't know if ours are the same, but I hope not.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Apparently we have bought 3.5m đŸ˜«


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:19:39 PM


More on the Dyson ventilators, appears all is not as it seems.




Originally Posted by: JHutch 


I heard that regulatory approval is more or less a given. FWIW I don't like Dyson or his ludicrously overpriced and overweight vacuum cleaners. His hand dryers are also crap, although he deserves credit for managing to flog a load of them to French service stations. Despite that he should be given the benefit of the doubt at this stage. If he can deliver 10,000 reliable and operationally competent ventilators in April it will be a huge achievement. If he doesn't or it turns out they breakdown frequently or over-inflate patients his business will be finished IMO.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:23:33 PM


More on the Dyson ventilators, appears all is not as it seems.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


NHS frontline staff are quite worried about getting ventilators from non medical companies as they need to be properly tested. There was a chap from a British medical tech company on Newsnight last night and he said they had zero contact from HMG! I don't understand why we don't first try the medical equipment companies before asking other manufacturers to produce something they had never done before.

Gandalf The White
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:24:33 PM

A friend of mine has confirmed one his friends died of the virus. He was diagnosed with the virus on Sunday and died this morning at 1am.

How awfully tragic, he was in his late 30s and did have underlying conditions.

It’s sad to think that in a few weeks we might all know someone who has passed directly or in directly.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Oh, really sorry to read this.


Does he have a wife and children?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:30:30 PM

​


London hospitals facing 'tsunami' of coronavirus cases  




Quote

 


London hospitals are facing a "tsunami" of coronavirus cases and are beginning to run out of intensive care beds, a senior hospital figure has said. Chris Hopson, of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals, said while critical care capacity had been expanded hospitals in the capital had seen an "explosion" in demand. A third of the UK cases have been diagnosed in the city. Mr Hopson said high staff absence rates were creating a "wicked combination". "They are struggling with two things. "The first is the explosion of demand they are seeing in seriously ill patients.


"They talk about wave after wave after wave - the word that's often used to me is a continuous tsunami. "We are now seeing 30%, 40% and indeed in some places 50% sickness rates as staff catch the virus or are in vulnerable groups or have to self-isolate. "That's unprecedented." Mr Hopson said that, while extra capacity was being brought in - including 4,000 beds at the ExCel centre in London's Docklands - hospital chief executives were concerned it would be used up "very quickly".


It comes as the NHS has taken unprecedented steps to prepare for the peak, which experts say is just two or three weeks away.


 





https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51714498


​

Gandalf The White
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:31:37 PM


 


I heard that regulatory approval is more or less a given. FWIW I don't like Dyson or his ludicrously overpriced and overweight vacuum cleaners. His hand dryers are also crap, although he deserves credit for managing to flog a load of them to French service stations. Despite that he should be given the benefit of the doubt at this stage. If he can deliver 10,000 reliable and operationally competent ventilators in April it will be a huge achievement. If he doesn't or it turns out they breakdown frequently or over-inflate patients his business will be finished IMO.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


We like his vacuum cleaners: we have a small one and a standard long one and they're both fine. We got the standard one in one of their Black Friday sales, with a load of accessories that mostly sit in a drawer....


I think their hand dryers are brilliant: much more effective than the ones that waft a vague current of cool air over your hands to little effect.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:38:22 PM

Article suggesting that social distancing may be slowing down the spread of other diseases too


https://qz.com/1824020/social-distancing-slowing-not-only-covid-19-but-other-diseases-too/


There may be some selection bias in the study but unintended consequences of The Great Lockdown will be interesting (if not necessarily pleasant). Decreased road accidents, increased suicides and domestic abuse? I wonder if these are modelled. I have also wondered if it will favour more infectious strains of various diseases.


--
Paul.
xioni2
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:42:37 PM

Bosch developed a 2.5h test with 95% accuracy


https://www.bosch.com/stories/vivalytic-rapid-test-for-covid-19/

Quantum
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:50:05 PM


Bosch developed a 2.5h test with 95% accuracy


https://www.bosch.com/stories/vivalytic-rapid-test-for-covid-19/


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


95% accuracy can be misleading though.


 


Say you test 100 people, and 10 have COVID.


90 people test negitive and don't have COVID


5 people test positive and do have COVID


5 people test negitive and do have COVID


 


Amongst those that have it, half are testing negitive! Which makes the 95% accuracy very poor indeed!


 


In probability terms its a confusion between P(A|B) and P(A).


I'm not saying this is what is happening, but that we just have to be careful to not get excited by high numbers.


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ulric
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:51:35 PM


 


Apparently we have bought 3.5m đŸ˜«


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Randox Laboratories?


Owen Patterson owns it.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
xioni2
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:53:08 PM


 95% accuracy can be misleading though.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Sorry, their publication says >95% accuracy, which meets the WHO criteria.


I guess that's better than the 30% accuracy tests that Spain bought from a Chinese company!


 

Maunder Minimum
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:56:49 PM

I don't know where the idea came from that the UK had ordered the same test kits as Spain.


This is from The Times today:


"The government has ordered 3.5 million testing kits from at least three commercial suppliers. Sharon Peacock, director of the national infection service at Public Health England, told MPs yesterday that validation of the kits was due to be completed this week."


The kits are being evaluated for accuracy at labs in Oxford - mass testing will only commence with those in the reliable diagnostic range.


 


New world order coming.
xioni2
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:59:23 PM

Local politicians in Italy believe that the number of deaths from covid in Italy could be underestimated. The mayor of Nembro said that his town (population 12,000) has 35 deaths per year, but they have now had 158 deaths since the start of the year and only 31 of them have been confirmed as covid victims. The mayor of  Brescia said that they have started finding an increasing number of dead people in their homes and not all of them are being tested for covid.


 

Gandalf The White
Thursday, March 26, 2020 2:00:57 PM


 


95% accuracy can be misleading though.


 


Say you test 100 people, and 10 have COVID.


90 people test negitive and don't have COVID


5 people test positive and do have COVID


5 people test negitive and do have COVID


 


Amongst those that have it, half are testing negitive! Which makes the 95% accuracy very poor indeed!


 


In probability terms its a confusion between P(A|B) and P(A).


I'm not saying this is what is happening, but that we just have to be careful to not get excited by high numbers.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Except that you've chosen the worst possible combination.


It could be 90 test negative correctly and 10 test positive, of which half are false positives. The latter group would be isolated but then found not to have it, so you wouldn't have missed anyone.


The other permutations are also possible, so you have anywhere between zero missed cases and five missed cases.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
Thursday, March 26, 2020 2:04:08 PM


Local politicians in Italy believe that the number of deaths from covid in Italy could be underestimated. The mayor of Nembro said that his town (population 12,000) has 35 deaths per year, but they have now had 158 deaths since the start of the year and only 31 of them have been confirmed as covid victims. The mayor of  Brescia said that they have started finding an increasing number of dead people in their homes and not all of them are being tested for covid.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


It's quite likely that not every case is being identified because I don't think anywhere is picking them all up.  


It may be that some of the deaths are through neglect due to isolation and the swamping of the healthcare system.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
Thursday, March 26, 2020 2:08:43 PM


 It's quite likely that not every case is being identified because I don't think anywhere is picking them all up.  


It may be that some of the deaths are through neglect due to isolation and the swamping of the healthcare system.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, it could be a side effect of the crisis, but it could also be that they just cannot test enough. The numbers are scary though, the mayor of Brescia said that the number of unusual deaths is now 6 times the official covid number in his area. It also shows why a managed herd immunity policy would be crazy,  if you get it wrong and your NHS gets swamped the downside is just huge.


 

Maunder Minimum
Thursday, March 26, 2020 2:10:43 PM


 


It's quite likely that not every case is being identified because I don't think anywhere is picking them all up.  


It may be that some of the deaths are through neglect due to isolation and the swamping of the healthcare system.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


We know categorically and openly from France that those who die in nursing homes are not currently being included in the COVID-19 stats - it would be no surprise if it were not the same in many regions.


 


New world order coming.
bledur
Thursday, March 26, 2020 2:11:50 PM


 


I heard that regulatory approval is more or less a given. FWIW I don't like Dyson or his ludicrously overpriced and overweight vacuum cleaners. His hand dryers are also crap, although he deserves credit for managing to flog a load of them to French service stations. Despite that he should be given the benefit of the doubt at this stage. If he can deliver 10,000 reliable and operationally competent ventilators in April it will be a huge achievement. If he doesn't or it turns out they breakdown frequently or over-inflate patients his business will be finished IMO.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 Not sure why we are hearing so much about Dyson as other manufacturers such as Pro Drive are going to be making them . Also i thought JCB were doing so . 


 My mother in law does not like her Dyson and has gone back to Henry .Can Henry be made into a Ventilator? Good one for Scrapheap Challenge.

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