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Gandalf The White
04 April 2020 14:40:50


 


It is a theoretical (and as far as I am aware yet to be peer reviewed) study. 


The study seems robust but the application is not really what Brian insinuates unless most people’s daily outdoor exercise is done in an enclosed drum with no wind or ventilation where a nebuliser has been used to spray the virus into the drum. 


Personally I prefer time in the garden or  going for a walk through a nice breezy open park (the enclosed drum option is less enticing).


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Unless you're a hamster....


As for the rest of the post: 👍👍


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
04 April 2020 14:49:30


https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text


Interesting. But I’m treating with extreme caution. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


The data does fit with what had been said a month or two ago, i.e. That only around 20% of cases required hospitalisation, implying a lot of mild or asymptomatic cases.


That piece also says "Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed."  Again, that supports what has been commented upon here and eslwheee, i.e. that the virus was circulating before Xmas (it was in Wuhan by early December and very probable that it was picked up and transported to other countries in December and January).


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
04 April 2020 14:53:01


Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham reported 101 deaths yesterday, taking their total to 203. As we have seen before, that may not be a true daily figure but just represent a lot of cases being officially reported on the same day.


 


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


The hospital only has 100 critical care beds (unless they've added some temporary ones recently) so 101 deaths must be across more than one day.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Lionel Hutz
04 April 2020 14:56:02


 


The relaxation will be an interesting one, where do you start ? 


 


All industries back to work ?...……..I doubt that as many people work side by side 


Allowing small gatherings ? ….…….Risky as you'd have clusters of groups everywhere , you might as well open the gates 


Families to visit each other.....…...The favourite to start with I'd say


Schools to reopen ……….unlikely just for the short period of time to the Summer holiday.


Sport to open its doors ………....Highley unlikely id say  


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yes, I've thought about that and no doubt it will present challenges and risks. For example, if people are allowed drive where they like(currently we're restricted to 2 km from our home unless a longer trip is needed for work or food), will there be hordes travelling to the nearest beach and this presenting infection risk? However, the relaxation of prohibitions will certainly have to start somewhere. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Heavy Weather 2013
04 April 2020 15:11:09
Watford Hospital has declared a critical emergency as they run low on Oxygen
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Bugglesgate
04 April 2020 15:12:13


637 new deaths in England


 



  • Midlands - 212

  • London - 127

  • North West - 97

  • North East and Yorkshire - 73

  • East of England - 70

  • South East - 41

  • South West - 17


 


The patients were between 5 and 104-years-old


 


40 patients aged between 48 and 93 had no known underlying conditions


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Are you seriously saying someone can get to  93 without  any "underlying conditions"


I'm struggling  with that one


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Bugglesgate
04 April 2020 15:15:53


 


Heat as a stopper is  unfounded , that cant be proved and when initially discussed the temp being discussed was high 20's 


Look at Spain


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


And Australia !


This thing does not behave like seasonal flu in that respect  


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
springsunshine
04 April 2020 15:16:22


 


The relaxation will be an interesting one, where do you start ? 


 


All industries back to work ?...……..I doubt that as many people work side by side 


Allowing small gatherings ? ….…….Risky as you'd have clusters of groups everywhere , you might as well open the gates 


Families to visit each other.....…...The favourite to start with I'd say


Schools to reopen ……….unlikely just for the short period of time to the Summer holiday.


Sport to open its doors ………....Highley unlikely id say  


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Outdoor leisure activities......Camping,caravaning,reopening of public footpaths,hiking and fishing(I hope) to name a few.All of which permit easy social distancing.


Agree about your other predictions especially families from different households visiting which has been going on a lot around here anyway.


The other is maybe very small weddings,max of 10 people as per funerals.


Any spike in infections etc back into lockdown.

doctormog
04 April 2020 15:17:39


 


Are you seriously saying someone can get to  93 without  any "underlying conditions"


I'm struggling  with that one


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


If they have a specific list of underlying health conditions in mind then I suspect it means they do not have one of these (such as heart failure, diabetes, cancer etc). 


Gandalf The White
04 April 2020 15:18:04


 


Are you seriously saying someone can get to  93 without  any "underlying conditions"


I'm struggling  with that one


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Well, it does say 'known underlying conditions' so only a post-mortem examination would reveal if there was an undiagnosed issue (or more).


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
04 April 2020 15:25:41
Lots of reports showing crowds of people on greens across London.

Sunbathing and socialising togeather. These people are an utter disgrace.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
04 April 2020 15:27:39


 


Outdoor leisure activities......Camping,caravaning,reopening of public footpaths,hiking and fishing(I hope) to name a few.All of which permit easy social distancing.


Agree about your other predictions especially families from different households visiting which has been going on a lot around here anyway.


The other is maybe very small weddings,max of 10 people as per funerals.


Any spike in infections etc back into lockdown.


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


If your tent is as big as a marquee maybe. Personally I've never felt able to "social distance" in a tent or a caravan - much as I would have liked to on many an occasion. As for footpaths - it depends how wide it is and whether you can step aside without falling off a cliff or getting entangled in barbed wire.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Lionel Hutz
04 April 2020 15:41:00


 


 


And Australia !


This thing does not behave like seasonal flu in that respect  


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


I recall somebody posting something during the week suggesting that it spreads best between average temperatures of 5C to 11C. Above and below, it still spreads but at a lower rate,  the higher the average temperature. Warmer weather is no silver bullet but it will help. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



fairweather
04 April 2020 15:51:20

For once in my llfe I will come in strongly with something. I posted yesterday about the virus that was around in December/January. I am sick of the inane responses who just regurgitate " it was just the usual cold or flu stuff. Ignore these social media myths" rsther than read what I actually said. Some of them I respect like Darren I would have credited with a more interested or inquiring response. Do you think that I and these other people have never had a cold or the flu before??. I will spell it out again in bigger writing so people will at least understand the point.


I AM NOT SAYING IT WAS COVID-19 !! The thousands of us that had it  (if not millions) are all saying THERE WERE NO WINTER COLD OR FLU SYMPTOMS  IT WAS NOT JUST ANOTHER COLD WE ALL GET EVERY YEAR.


Everybody only experienced a long spontaneous terrible (and I'm not  talking normal cold here) cough and a fever, nothing else. PEOPLE ROUND HERE WERE POSTING THEY'D NEVER KNOWN ANYTHING LIKE IT AS WERE FAMILY AND FRIENDS BEFORE THEY'D HEARD OF CORONA VIRUS so completely invalidating casual remarks about people think they had it, the posts were not retrospective.


As for the hospitals, they were pretty full here but any severe cases would have been put down as pneumonia - why not. People also struggled through it when they would have fearfully gone to A&E or called an ambulance now.


I'm sure it was a different and novel virus. I can't recall another like it but I accept it could be any other virus that carries those symptoms but clearly not common cold or flu. I would be completely satisfied if somebody actually replied with this epidemic was studied and it was another novel virus that only caused a severe cough. Fine. But as a retired Scientist who has spent a good deal of time dealing with evidence based facts and debunking urban myths until somebody comes back with some evidence of what it actually was rather than making wild unfounded assumptions then I will keep an open mind. 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gavin D
04 April 2020 15:55:21

Daily breakdown of the data from PHE


UK data 



  • Daily confirmed Cases - 3,735 (-715)

  • Patients Recovered - 135 (no change) - Current daily high for recovered patients 42 (22/03) - Data will be updated in due course a new system is in development.

  • Total UK deaths - 4,313 (+708)


English data


Top 10 Local Authorities with the highest confirmed cases



  1. Birmingham: 984

  2. Hampshire: 749

  3. Sheffield: 715

  4. Surrey: 649

  5. Hertfordshire: 637

  6. Kent: 621

  7. Brent: 601

  8. Southwark: 566

  9. Cumbria: 564

  10. Lambeth: 563


Local Authorities with the fewest confirmed cases



  • Rutland: 6 (No change)

  • Hartlepool: 23 (No change)

  • Isle of Wight: 25

  • Kingston upon Hull, City of: 28

  • Darlington: 32 (No change)

  • North East Lincolnshire: 36

  • North Lincolnshire: 43

  • Bracknell Forest: 45

  • Peterborough: 48

  • Swindon: 49


Regional data



  • London - 10,247 (+517)             

  • Midlands - 5,537 (+590) 

  • South East - 4,177 (+454) 

  • North West - 4,093 (+556)  

  • North East and Yorkshire - 4,029 (+269) 

  • East of England - 2,613 (+229) 

  • South West - 1,536 (+150) 


All changes with yesterday. Data based up to 9am today for new cases and up to 5pm yesterday for new confirmed coronavirus deaths. Not all deaths occurred in the 24hr period.

Gavin D
04 April 2020 15:56:40

Those Green shoots they kept talking about showing the first signs of appearing now in the hospital admissions data in London and South East with both seeing a drop


 


image.thumb.png.30f09caf414c5d7e9f650475aec5b28b.png

Essan
04 April 2020 15:58:57


 


If your tent is as big as a marquee maybe. Personally I've never felt able to "social distance" in a tent or a caravan - much as I would have liked to on many an occasion. As for footpaths - it depends how wide it is and whether you can step aside without falling off a cliff or getting entangled in barbed wire.


Originally Posted by: RobN 



Easy to social distance when wild camping    I'm usually several miles at least from the nearest person 


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Polar Low
04 April 2020 16:01:11

I know had the same thing as did my whole household I did make similar points on here sometime ago I guess I’ll just have to wait and see but I would put it more than 50/50 as the symptoms were were so exact 


btw what part of Essex are you.


 



For once in my llfe I will come in strongly with something. I posted yesterday about the virus that was around in December/January. I am sick of the inane responses who just regurgitate " it was just the usual cold or flu stuff. Ignore these social media myths" rsther than read what I actually said. Some of them I respect like Darren I would have credited with a more interested or inquiring response. Do you think that I and these other people have never had a cold or the flu before??. I will spell it out again in bigger writing so people will at least understand the point.


I AM NOT SAYING IT WAS COVID-19 !! The thousands of us that had it  (if not millions) are all saying THERE WERE NO WINTER COLD OR FLU SYMPTOMS  IT WAS NOT JUST ANOTHER COLD WE ALL GET EVERY YEAR.


Everybody only experienced a long spontaneous terrible (and I'm not  talking normal cold here) cough and a fever, nothing else. PEOPLE ROUND HERE WERE POSTING THEY'D NEVER KNOWN ANYTHING LIKE IT AS WERE FAMILY AND FRIENDS BEFORE THEY'D HEARD OF CORONA VIRUS so completely invalidating casual remarks about people think they had it, the posts were not retrospective.


As for the hospitals, they were pretty full here but any severe cases would have been put down as pneumonia - why not. People also struggled through it when they would have fearfully gone to A&E or called an ambulance now.


I'm sure it was a different and novel virus. I can't recall another like it but I accept it could be any other virus that carries those symptoms but clearly not common cold or flu. I would be completely satisfied if somebody actually replied with this epidemic was studied and it was another novel virus that only caused a severe cough. Fine. But as a retired Scientist who has spent a good deal of time dealing with evidence based facts and debunking urban myths until somebody comes back with some evidence of what it actually was rather than making wild unfounded assumptions then I will keep an open mind. 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Retron
04 April 2020 16:01:29


I AM NOT SAYING IT WAS COVID-19 !! The thousands of us that had it  (if not millions) are all saying THERE WERE NO WINTER COLD OR FLU SYMPTOMS  IT WAS NOT JUST ANOTHER COLD WE ALL GET EVERY YEAR.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


It wasn't Covid-19.


I've had the flu exactly once in my life - at Christmas 2009. It sucked.


Symptoms wise, it was very similar to Covid-19. Fever (shivers and shakes, night sweats) and a racking cough - the only time (apart from the past couple of weeks) that I've ever had a cough. It was much worse than the one I've had recently and it made me cough so much it really hurt - and that cough lingered for a few weeks even after the flu had gone. The other symptoms were a sore throat (which I always get before a regular cold, I had one before this recent cough too) and extreme tiredness - I just wanted to sleep, which wasn't terribly easy with that cough.


The saving grace was that I didn't have any snottiness whatsoever.


What I'm getting at is that regular flu is perfectly capable of causing the symptoms you described. As I said before, regular colds and flu haven't gone anywhere and yes, thousands - tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands - will have had regular flu this winter.


EDIT: And of all places, the Daily Mail's report from mid-December shows this up well, remarking that far more people than usual had been hospitalised with the flu.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7810129/Flu-cases-EIGHT-TIMES-higher-point-UK-winter.html


 


 


 


Leysdown, north Kent
Essan
04 April 2020 16:03:14


For once in my llfe I will come in strongly with something. I posted yesterday about the virus that was around in December/January. I am sick of the inane responses who just regurgitate " it was just the usual cold or flu stuff. Ignore these social media myths" rsther than read what I actually said. Some of them I respect like Darren I would have credited with a more interested or inquiring response. Do you think that I and these other people have never had a cold or the flu before??. I will spell it out again in bigger writing so people will at least understand the point.


I AM NOT SAYING IT WAS COVID-19 !! The thousands of us that had it  (if not millions) are all saying THERE WERE NO WINTER COLD OR FLU SYMPTOMS  IT WAS NOT JUST ANOTHER COLD WE ALL GET EVERY YEAR.


Everybody only experienced a long spontaneous terrible (and I'm not  talking normal cold here) cough and a fever, nothing else. PEOPLE ROUND HERE WERE POSTING THEY'D NEVER KNOWN ANYTHING LIKE IT AS WERE FAMILY AND FRIENDS BEFORE THEY'D HEARD OF CORONA VIRUS so completely invalidating casual remarks about people think they had it, the posts were not retrospective.


As for the hospitals, they were pretty full here but any severe cases would have been put down as pneumonia - why not. People also struggled through it when they would have fearfully gone to A&E or called an ambulance now.


I'm sure it was a different and novel virus. I can't recall another like it but I accept it could be any other virus that carries those symptoms but clearly not common cold or flu. I would be completely satisfied if somebody actually replied with this epidemic was studied and it was another novel virus that only caused a severe cough. Fine. But as a retired Scientist who has spent a good deal of time dealing with evidence based facts and debunking urban myths until somebody comes back with some evidence of what it actually was rather than making wild unfounded assumptions then I will keep an open mind. 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 




I only heard about this in the past couple of weeks and was never aware of anyone having any such symptoms at the time, so it must have been fairly localised.  

I believe 'flu deaths were quite low this winter.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Retron
04 April 2020 16:04:27

Figures from Public Health England for flu in December. Note the third point - as I keep saying, regular flu hasn't gone anywhere.


LAST WEEK'S FLU IN NUMBERS 



Between December 9 and December 15 there were:



  • An estimated 9,646 GP appointments in England for influenza-like symptoms (calculated using attendance rates and population data) 

  • 586 patients hospitalised by flu in England

  •  174 patients admitted to intensive care with flu, bringing the total in 2019 to 2,092

  • Eight deaths in which flu was a contributing factor, bringing the total since September 30 to 23 

  • 155 new outbreaks of lung-borne illnesses suspected to be flu. 86 of these were in care homes, 56 in schools, seven in hospitals and six 'other' 


Source: Public Health England



Leysdown, north Kent
Polar Low
04 April 2020 16:04:37

I’m not convinced Darren it wasn’t



 


It wasn't Covid-19.


I've had the flu exactly once in my life - at Christmas 2009. It sucked.


Symptoms wise, it was very similar to Covid-19. Fever (shivers and shakes, night sweats) and a racking cough - the only time (apart from the past couple of weeks) that I've ever had a cough. It was much worse than the one I've had recently and it made me cough so much it really hurt - and that cough lingered for a few weeks even after the flu had gone. The other symptoms were a sore throat (which I always get before a regular cold, I had one before this recent cough too) and extreme tiredness - I just wanted to sleep, which wasn't terribly easy with that cough.


The saving grace was that I didn't have any snottiness whatsoever.


What I'm getting at is that regular flu is perfectly capable of causing the symptoms you described. As I said before, regular colds and flu haven't gone anywhere and yes, thousands - tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands - will have had regular flu this winter.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 

The Beast from the East
04 April 2020 16:05:38

Lots of reports showing crowds of people on greens across London.

Sunbathing and socialising togeather. These people are an utter disgrace.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Agree. These fools make it more likely a harder lockdown will happen and we will all suffer even more


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
04 April 2020 16:06:05


 


Compared to non COVID viral pnemonia, COVID-19 seems to like:


Men


Non white ethnicities


Those who are overweight


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
John p
04 April 2020 16:06:15


Those Green shoots they kept talking about showing the first signs of appearing now in the hospital admissions data in London and South East with both seeing a drop


 


image.thumb.png.30f09caf414c5d7e9f650475aec5b28b.png


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


However, big increases for Midlands and Yorkshire?


Was today’s press conference not televised?


Camberley, Surrey

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