Pre-print warning.

The titer is highly variable.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047365v1.full.pdf

Originally Posted by: nouska 

 "Interviews and records published so far suggest that the scientific committees that advised Johnson didn't study, until mid-March, the option of the kind of stringent lockdown adopted early on in China, where the disease arose in December, and then followed by much of Europe and finally by Britain itself. The scientists' reasoning: Britons, many of them assumed, simply wouldn't accept such restrictions.

As they watched China impose its lockdown, the British scientists assumed that such drastic actions would never be acceptable in a democracy like the UK. Among those modelling the outbreak, such stringent counter-measures were not, at first, examined.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

This really concerning. Evidence is mounting that the #Coronavirus death figures for the UK are being vastly underreported- by almost 80%- and this is just deaths in hospital. By the excellent ⁦@ChrisGiles_⁩ ⁦@FT⁩ ⁦@ONS⁩ #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/O9vc9xLmhB

— Bill Neely (@BillNeelyNBC) April 8, 2020

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

The anger builds here, Several second homes in the Lelant area 3 miles from St Ives have over the last couple of days become full with several cars parked outside. 
My mother in law is 83 with several under lying health conditions, one of the second homes is next door to her. 
We only have one main hospital down here which seems to be constantly on what used to be called black alert. If they are infected they will be exercising on the beach and shopping in the local supermarket, spreading the infection.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 

On this note, I wonder what happens with those who have booked a Summer week or two by the sea. Know that in Cornwall some towns swell by two/three fold with people on holiday during the peak time. We are a little way away from that period, but such travel needs to be looked at even now. Often there are gridlocks on routes down to the SW there are so many down there.

It will be bad for holiday companies, bad for the local economies down there who rely on the period Jun-Sept, but my feeling is that this year holidays even in this country should be cancelled unless we have virtually zero cases by then and can manage outbreaks on a day to day basis.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Think that's right. 

We've just cancelled our summer holiday (we were going to the Baltic Coast in Poland) which was going to be in early June. At least we get the hotel deposit back by cancelling now.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well, time to accentuate the positives - here is some good news from Italy (Telegraph):

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Italy has closed its ports to illegal migrant ships because of the coronavirus epidemic, Reuters has reported.

The government decided late last night that ports cannot be considered safe and have said that will  charity migrant boats will not be able to dock.

The decision was taken after German non-profit organisation Sea-Eye picked up some 150 people off Libya and headed towards Italy.

“For the entire duration of the national health emergency caused by the spread of the Covid-19 virus, Italian ports cannot guarantee the requisites needed to be classified and defined as a place of safety,” the decree said.

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Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Think that's right. 

We've just cancelled our summer holiday (we were going to the Baltic Coast in Poland) which was going to be in early June. At least we get the hotel deposit back by cancelling now.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well it’s news, not sure I’d call it good news for those involved.

Originally Posted by: John p 

Well, time to accentuate the positives - here is some good news from Italy (Telegraph):

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Italy has closed its ports to illegal migrant ships because of the coronavirus epidemic, Reuters has reported.

The government decided late last night that ports cannot be considered safe and have said that will  charity migrant boats will not be able to dock.

The decision was taken after German non-profit organisation Sea-Eye picked up some 150 people off Libya and headed towards Italy.

“For the entire duration of the national health emergency caused by the spread of the Covid-19 virus, Italian ports cannot guarantee the requisites needed to be classified and defined as a place of safety,” the decree said.

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Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Was it a big chain hotel? I know IHG, for example, are allowing you to cancel out to the end of June for a full refund, even on non-refundable rates.

(I've a room booked in Tokyo with them in late October - I'll be keeping an eye on that nearer the time!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Not part of the chain. TBH even if international travel is possible by June I wouldn't want to be sandwiched into a Whizz Air A320, therefore cancelling now is perfectly fine for us. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Good.

The last thing you need at times like this is coronavirus-afflicted cats taking dumps all over the place - but I doubt many owners will comply.

(It's like a grim sweepstakes whenever I mow the lawn - how many cat turds will there be. Bonus points if I actually manage to avoid treading in the filthy stuff. It's always pissed me off that people have these "pets" and let them out to take dumps wherever they like... the answer is always "oh, it's their nature to roam". Well, yes, it's in dogs' natures to form packs and kill things, but we don't let them do that... nor should we with cats. Then again, a quarter of the country has that brain parasite, transmitted by cats, which in mice at least attracts them to cats!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Just out of interest, how many on here know personally of someone who has, or has had a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19?

Originally Posted by: John p 

The Times says that his temperature was beginning to normalise last night. I doubt they would go into print if there wasn't evidence to support the claim.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I do - a neighbour who was skiing in Northern Italy in late Feb. She went down with it as soon as she got home and was extremely ill for nearly three weeks. She still has breathing issues despite being 50, having a healthy weight and exercising regularly. Doctor told her she may have suffered permanent lung damage.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

Just out of interest, how many on here know personally of someone who has, or has had a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19?

Originally Posted by: John p 

Isn't this just late reporting, rather than underreporting? For example many of the deaths included in yesterday's total occurred in March. If you analyse the deaths by date of death, it will inevitably show more deaths for March than those reported, but as the curve heads downwards the opposite will be true. The reported death dates lag the actual death dates.

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

The MSM is catching up on the religious dimension to infection rates:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-religious-festivities-may-have-proved-deadly-to-community-rtvsqkffh

"...

With big communal events looming for the three major monotheistic religions — Passover begins tonight, Easter is this weekend and Ramadan starts on April 23 — global lockdown measures face a severe test.

The government has published no official statistics to indicate whether there is a greater prevalence of Covid-19 among any religious or ethnic minorities in Britain. However, the British Islamic Medical Association (Bima) has said that British Muslims “have certain characteristics that place us at higher risk than the general population”.

One Jewish doctor suggested that overcrowding in the ultra-Orthodox neighbourhoods of north London provided conditions “ideal for spreading infection”. Another told The Jewish Chronicle that British Jews were dying at an unprecedented rate.

The Board of Deputies of British Jews said that as of Sunday it knew of 115 Covid-19 deaths in the Jewish community, or 2.3 per cent of all UK deaths at the time. Jews make up 0.4 per cent of the UK population.

Yehudis Fletcher, founder of a Jewish counter-extremism think tank, believes that “the very culture that’s normally our biggest strength becomes our biggest weakness during a pandemic like this”.

Ms Fletcher, from Manchester, said: “I don’t know anyone who doesn’t know people who have died. I’ve been following the funerals over Zoom. There’s absolute devastation. Everyone is affected. I wake up every morning and check the family Whatsapp group to make sure there isn’t more bad news.”

Unverified claims have been made that British Muslims are also dying at a disproportionate rate. There is perceived to be a particular vulnerability because many households are home to three generations of the same family.

...

There is also concern that government advice restricting social contact was slow to permeate some neighbourhoods. On March 16 the Muslim Council of Britain issued a “strong recommendation for Muslim communities to suspend all congregational activities”. It said: “We all have a public duty to protect one another from harm.”

..."

Muslim and Jewish groups appear to be at particular risk, but no religious group is exempt if they insist on congregating to worship.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum