I will be clapping the NHS workers and carers. I will not be clapping the NHS. 

Wales has reported 41 deaths in the last 12 hours (they are changing how they are reporting and this is only half a days figures)

I don't think anyone has been applauding buildings and equipment, have they?

🙂

Japan reports more than 500 new cases. 

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/have-australia-and-new-zealand-stopped-covid-19-in-its-tracks/ar-BB12nrNL?ocid=spartandhp

Interesting piece above highlighting how Austrailia and New Zealand seem to have kept a lid on the virus to a reasonable degree. It suggests that closed borders and social distancing were key factors. However, I wonder whether climate was a factor here too? It has been suggested that average temperatures of between 5 C and 11 C are ideal for the virus. Perhaps the NZ/Aus experience is a sign of this? It's also interesting that nowhere in the global South seems to ahve suffered too badly as yet. Of course, it's early days yet but it may also be another sign that Covid 19 has difficulty spreading at higher temperatures.

Well I won't be clapping the institution called by some "our NHS". I will be clapping those who work within it. 

But it wont be a 24 period anyway, its a farce

Just do it weekly

Also, our daughter’s partner was suffering increasing groin pain earlier this week and was worried it was his testicles, so she phoned the local surgery, which is closed but still fully staffed.  A doctor phoned back to discuss his symptoms, then asked him to go straight into the surgery to be examined.  Turns out it’s just a pulled muscle but his mind is now at rest, thanks to some areas of the NHS still working as normal.

I think it is a 24 hour period. Too early to say whether yesterday was the peak for deaths. Unlikely since the figures seem to be lagging but we can hope. 

Updated graph with todays data UK total today is 887 - England is down 63 whilst the UK is down 51 - with some data from Wales missing.

Sadly, the peak is more likely to occur next week. 

That’s just the figures from hospital deaths. They say it’s not possible to add the deaths from care homes and elsewhere. If they could I’d imagine the true figure would be horrific.

It's not a true 24hr period.

Some deaths are backdated up to 2 weeks. This is due to some patients passing away before they're confirmed to have had Covid-19 they then have to await the results to return and inform family members.

I think that's what everyone has been doing: my point was really that the NHS is its people (hence my comment about equipment and buildings).

It's the people that put the 'service' into National Health Service, after all. Even the technology is about people getting the right equipment and using it properly.

Of the 765 deaths announced today in England

• 140 - April 8th (yesterday)


• 568 - April 1st to April 7th


• 57 - in March including 1 on March 16th and 2 on March 19th

Yes, using the Italian curve (and that period straddles the 2 weeks). But the way our hospitals deaths are being reported and also the current number of hospital admissions suggest that it could take a little longer. 

The number of new infections and hospital admissions are of more interest (not wishing to downplay the tragedy of the mounting death toll). I need to see Quantum's JFF model updated.

I've just added the "Covid Symptom Tracker" app to my phone, that is mentioned in this article. It asks you a series of questions about your age, location, health and whether you have any symptoms. Apparently 2.2 million other people have also done so, and this is used to estimate how many of the population have been infected.

This app leads (as opposed to lags) the government's new infections count, as people report symptoms some time before actually being admitted to hospital and getting tested. The article says that an estimated 1.4 million are now infected, down from 1.9 million a week ago, so that hopefully shows the shape of the "New Infections" curve next week.

The app's accompanying website https://covid.joinzoe.com/data allows you to see the density of infections by local government district. The obvious locations highlighted by the government data are shown as hotspots (Greater London, Birmingham, South Wales) but also Liverpool - maybe courtesy of that football match?

Most of Central Southern England is the palest colour, with the lowest infection rates; but one notable exception is the whole of Gloucestershire - could this be down to Cheltenham Gold Cup?

Its a joke and not including care home or domestic home deaths

As Justin says hospital admissions is the best way to work out where we are

Suggests we should be using a moving average to represent it more accurately.

The editor of the Lancet doesn't hold back: Coronavirus is the greatest policy failure in a generation