I'm going for Monday depending on cloud over of course but UKMO has 20c 850s in the SE. Could squeeze 38c

In fact UKMO is a very hot run and keeps 18c 850s until Thursday.

Oh excrement. 

So many potential days.

yep it was about right. Clouded up a bit in the afternoon and a very uncomfortable close evening followed. 

No jetstream for UK until Thu 13th when a flow from NW wraps itself round the UK and develops into a small cut-off low over the Chammel Sun 16th After that dissipates, another cut-off appears on the Atlantic Wed 19th and trundles S then E to to be in the Channel Sat 22nd followed by yet another on Tue 25th. Looks as if it could be stormy for the S for a week or so.10-day pptn is wet for all inland UK.

GFS - Broad band of HP from Azores to Norway but UKoccupying a col in the middle of this to Tue 18th (sometimes the col almost merits the title of a proper LP e.g. Fri 14th). A new LP appears on the Atlantic Wed 19th and moves S & E to push one centre S of the UK Sun 23rd while leaving a twin centre off SW Ireland.

GEFS - In the S, temps back to normal with a bump from Thu 13th, and the mean then stays near the norm but with a good spread of forecasts from the various runs. The control is a notable cold outlier. Rain from time to time; one very big spike in the op Sat 15th. In Scotland and the N the temp declines more gradually to the norm; rather more rain about though Scotland and NE England get a dry spell for a few days around Sun 16th

ECM - shows the same twin centre HP and col; LP develops a day earlier, on Tue 18th, but not as deep as GFS.

Stunning GFS 6z keeps the heat going and going. So different to the ECM though.

GFS 12z has 36c for Wednesday that's very unusual.

There are some very high numbers appearing in the models for Wednesday.

The NMM 5 degree model only goes out to 72hrs so currently stops at 12z on Wednesday. It already has temperatures up to 36C at this time (today it predicted 33C as the max close to Herstmonceux)

http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2020080912/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?09-17

Ugh. GFS and ECM couldn't be more different around Aug 18/19. GFS has been consistently showing high pressure across the north of the country but ECM goes for a mega trough with northwesterlies to wash out my holiday.

GFS 18z is more troughy. The Northern high pressure handshake has disappeared and we’re into August 2004 style slow warm breakdown. Decent temps until the 18th though.

Wednesday still showing widespread notable heat on the 00z GFS.

BBC Week Ahead suggesting focus for storms this week will be in the W today, the N on Tuesday and the S on Wednesday - something for everyone!But still possible surprises.

GFS - the broad area of HP across the UK SW to NE persists but interrupted at times by embedded LP centres - from the S in the next few days, from the W Tue 18th (which hangs around off Ireland for several days)

GEFS - generally temps back to around norm from Sat 15th but with both cold and warm outliers, plenty of chances for rain but no consistent pattern. Scotland gets a dry spell for a few days from Sat 15th after a definite peak on the 12th

ECM - Differs from GFS in suggesting that the Atlantic depression on the 18th will instead be a trough from a centre near Iceland, and cooler weather to follow.

It's been like that here since April but sooner or later the long dry here at least,  has to break. If I remember at the beginning of July there was much talk of biblical floods on this forum which here at least came to nought.

Sacre bleu! Surely you're not suggesting some of the posters here are prone to exaggeration?

GFS 06z brings the low pressure close to us but just hanging around to the SW until a new Scandi high gets its act together. ICON looks similar up to 120hrs.

ECM is a much better model, but the one grain of succour I have is that a number of other models are not having its cold plunge (it's not just GFS as an outlier), and we know that UK weather once established tends to take a while to shift large scale patterns. We've only been in this current pattern of high pressure to the NE and Northward displaced jet since, at most, the last week of July.

GFS continues to look wet though.

I'm sure Kev B will have the stats, but I reckon in July we had at least 20 days that saw some rainfall at some point.

Broken record, sure, but all I ask for is the sort of few-week dry & mainly sunny spell with temps into the mid-20's.

There have been ridiculous comments all summer – almost as bad as the hysteria you see on the other channel at times.

Been a great summer so far down here, only problem has been the two heatwaves so far, both of which were/are unbearably hot at night. 

July was generally fine – low 20s and plenty of nice sunshine. 

My England and Wales summer index (normalised temp, rainfall and sunshine since 1970) shows the following:

April: 120.91 (third highest in series)

May: 153.22 (highest in series)

June: 124.93 (just above average)

July: 126.15 (well below average)

E&W rainfall was 130% of 1971-00 average, and sunshine was 84% of average.

So it was a pretty disappointing July, but mainly in the Midlands, North and West.

Which is where (plus Scotland) the vast majority complaints about this summer (and July in particular) have come from. 

Yes, some areas in the south/south-east have had a prolonged good spell, but people from there making snide comments about how ridiculous others saying it's been a poor summer, when the people complaining have indeed had a poor summer, is annoying.

ICON 12z has a long, slow, warm and messy breakdown of this event.

GFS so far seems to have taken Wed maxes down a peg or two (to 34C). Fair bit of rain and cloud in the forecast which may be why.