The same in winter when folk in the north banging on about snow and ice days when we're still waiting for our first frost.

GFS turns into a rain-fest. Real shades of 2004 in there. That started hot too.

Indeed.

About a third of the population of the whole UK live in the South and East of England – it's fair enough that the weather here gets discussed widely. It is certainly proportionate to the population. 

It's amazing how quickly the GFS has collapsed from widespread high pressure to an ECM-style arkfest

Let's hope the GFS Op is overcooking the cumulative rainfall - it has gone way off the scale for the arid desert of mid-East Anglia

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&lat=52.2672064777&lon=0.283018867925&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1

Will my Ark finally need to come out of retirement? 🤣🤣

To be honest, I remain to be convinced that any of the models have yet got a proper handle on what happens after the end this week and next weekend. I could well be wrong, but I have a feeling that ECM and GFS may well be overcooking that LP shown for next week. We shall see.

These heatwaves often take a lot longer to shift than the models suggest, and there have been countless examples where the models have overcooked low pressure returning in an attempt to return to normality.

I think its obviously going to cool down but I'm not so sure we are about to see autumn arriving early.

20-25% of the EC ens runs do this with low to mid 30s in the SE next week.

Heaven knows where they got this from. Just seen a chilly 18C as the max at the end of next week for East Anglia.

Agreed. Nine times out of ten these modelled epic lows fail to trouble the scorers. Most likely we will end up with something decidedly average which will be welcomed by many, including me. My garden is suffering and I’m wilting in the night heat. 

25c at midnight ain’t funny. 

And hopefully a bit drier than recently too!

I've been keeping an eye out for some much-needed rain on the models for a while now - all this talk of arks etc made me hopeful, but GFS is see-sawing between showing silly amounts (e.g. 19mm/3 hours in the 0z run) to practically nothing (as per yesterday's 18z). The law of sod dictates the latter is more likely, but showers and storms are, of course, very tricky to predict.

From the Scttish perspective, that is - could you send some this way, please? No measurable rainfall here for weeks ..jus a chance tomorrow or Thursday?

GFS currently showing broad ridge of HP still present with slack LP to the S until Tue 18th when the ridge is split by a deeper LP setting over the UK 985mb by Thu 20th (centred in lowland Scotland - again?!). HP resumes in the S toWed 26th but with some LP drifting in from the W

GEFS in the S - temps dropping irregularly back to norm by Mon 17th and many more spikes of rainfall than yesterday 13th- 22nd. In Scotland a steadier and slower decline to norm; after immediate rainfall there's a dry period to Mon 17th when it kicks off again.

ECM similar to GFS but cooler and more W-ly at end of run (Fri 21st)

Models seem keen on extending the warmth mid/high 20s Friday to Sunday. 

Just like when we were on unsettled spell kept extending all the time so hope this will do the same to make up for poor early start to summer.

Met Office seasonal probability model (GLOSEA 5) has been updated as well as ensemble mean seasonal:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Can't show Europe only but only Global - Now covering the start of the winter: